The Pomp Podcast
00:43:47 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:43:47] S1: Okay. If that is true, gold, looking at GLD, last five days, up about four, four and a half percent. Last month, it is basically flat and down about point seven. Last six months, it's down 10%. Year to date, gold is down 5%. For the last year, though, it is basically slightly up about 2.3 Mhmm. Percent. But over the last five years, it's up a 120%. So if you basically look over the last five days, it's up kinda post election, but for the last month, it's been flat. How does something like gold play into the macro environment as it's developing, and is it something that you're excited about or something that you kinda just don't care about right now?
00:44:25 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:44:25] S3: So I'm... I put gold. I showed a chart in there of an overlay of gold with Bitcoin this year. And since the liquidity headwind started, which I would say started when when Trump and Israel went into Iran. When that started, that's when the headwind started for real ten year yields. That was when the Fed became more of an issue. The dollar basically stopped going down or having any kind of weakness, and the AI trade was accelerating, taking all the capital. So again, when I say liquidity, I want people to realize the liquidity for crypto... When people invest in the AI trade and when the... They come to the market and go, we're gonna raise a $1,000,000,000,000.5. That has an impact on Bitcoin. That's just US capital. I mean, we've... We saw what the Korean market did. You brought back that you heard that Korea wasn't... Didn't wanna be involved in Bitcoin. Greed will always bring people back in. So I'm excited about the fact that Bitcoin has acted extremely well during this chaos, and I do believe it'll be correlated to gold on the upside. I believe it'll be correlated to any bounce in the AI trade from this point, because I don't think the AI trade is going to collapse from these levels, because now we've taken it to levels where, believe it or not, the PE on Micron is three as of when I came in here. That's crazy. But again, that's the reality of where you have this stuff. I mean, for for NVIDIA, you're getting close to a single digit PE on, you know. [00:45:49] S1: And that doesn't make you excited. That actually tells you, like, cause for concern.
00:45:53 · Jordi Visser
[00:45:53] S3: That tells me about what I was saying, which is the multiple compression. Do I think Micron will ever get to a 10 PE? No. So that's the best way I can say it is you think of a three PE in something in your head that says that's a low number. But the reality is I think all of the PEs are coming down. The only company this year that's seen really multiple expansion that, you know, is a big company is Apple. It's up at, a 40 PE. But what does Apple have that all these other companies don't have? They're actually immune to AI. They don't have an AI business. They haven't... I mean, if you've looked at the CapEx numbers of all of their the mag seven, they're at zero, basically. So, Apple has done well because it's a quality safe company that people have migrated into. It's almost like the hedge against the rest on the way Berkshire is, because Berkshire and Apple are both making Northam High, so is Eli Lilly. So my biggest AI trade is doing well. It's just not big enough to offset the other ones that I have. So I just think that in general, what you're you're going into is you're gonna have a a bouncing gold. Platinum's had a big... Has a reversal week. Silver's done well. Palladium's done well. This isn't just one trade. Bitcoin to me will be correlated. It's part gold at this point. It's part MDX. And when we see a bounce in the AI trade and gold is going higher happen. One more thing that we talked about before, the quarterly refunding announcement happened. And as I highlighted in the crypto video, they tweaked the language. So Bloomberg put out a story, and you have a lot of people saying, okay. Now they can make changes when they want. They did the one little change. Now the reason this is important, they did this language change on August 4 as well. And then two weeks later, on the eighteenth or nineteenth is when they actually made the buyback announcement where they were gonna buy more. They have to do something to change affordability. This is a major issue coming out of the... There's a number one issue, was affordability and distribution of wealth. So I think there's a risk here, again, that the government will get involved to make sure that this long end isn't an issue.
00:48:09 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:48:09] S1: Qualcomm down 9% after their earnings. I have a little bird in my ear who has been telling me that, you know, Qualcomm has a whole chips business. [00:48:19] S3: Mhmm. [00:48:20] S1: But people don't really ever talk about them. Do you you have any thoughts, or or are they just kinda irrelevant from the narrative regardless of what the financials and technology is?
00:48:28 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:48:28] S3: So Qualcomm ends up being more for autos and more for phones. So they do have a data center business, but it's not the same. So where Qualcomm becomes more of a thought is when car sales are going higher, which is not happening, primarily an affordability issue, but also we we're not rolling out the FSD yet. And then on the phone side, memory's been such a big bottleneck, and it's made the prices go higher that Apple has said they're not gonna sell as many as thought. Now this had an impact on Intel too. So Qualcomm, I think, fits a little bit into the Intel side. It fits a little bit into the auto side. They don't have, let's say, the upside, interest that a Marvell would have or that any of these companies on the optical side because they're almost exclusively towards the data center side, which still has demand. But now that data center demand people are questioning, so you've lost the entire AI trade. I wanna repeat again what I said so people understand this. At June, the stock market was not discounting any bottlenecks. It was not discounting any of the issues that were gonna come up. You guys can go pull our tapes from May and June. This was a major, major thing that was why I was writing papers called the fireworks show is over, mid cycle slowdowns here. You never know when these corrections are gonna end up bottoming, and maybe this is a bubble, this is gonna completely unwind. Take your [00:49:54] S1: take your victory lap. [00:49:55] S3: You were right. [00:49:56] S1: This is not... My portfolio does not
00:49:56 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:49:56] S1: This is not... My portfolio does not [00:49:58] S3: look like a victory lap. It looks more like carnage, like someone threw an ice cream ball