Key points
- Visser says public company growth ends by 2030, when they effectively become bonds, citing Marc Andreessen.
- Bitcoin is a $1.5tn asset banks now sell to customers, with ETF shares at record highs despite widespread doubt.
- Visser says the peak of hedge-fund leverage has passed for good and his portfolio has given back over 60% of its January-to-June gains.
Bitcoin Is the Last Call Option as Stocks Become Bonds
Jordi Visser thinks the era of public-company compounding is ending. He borrows Marc Andreessen's line that the S&P 500 is 492 bonds and eight call options, and with moats gone the growth belongs to a few AI names while everything else behaves like fixed income. Bitcoin, which he says does not carry the hurdles stocks do, is where the next five years of returns should come from.
Takeaways
- Public companies become bonds by 2030. Visser credits Marc Andreessen with the framing that the S&P 500 is 492 bonds and eight call options, the Magnificent Seven plus SpaceX, and he is writing a paper on it. No moats survive, so mature businesses stop compounding.
- Bitcoin is the option in a moatless world. Visser calls bitcoin a $1.5tn asset still doubted by almost everyone with money. Banks have moved from government support to selling it, and ETF share counts are at record highs. Volatility held near 30 all year, and crypto growth should run three more years.
- The midterm selloff was leverage, not demand. Democrats were favoured, so the surprise was the scale of the damage. Visser says his portfolio gave back more than 60% of its January-to-June gains and that hedge fund leverage has peaked for good, with rumours of two firms closing their equity businesses.
- Inflation fears have already peaked. November CPI is most likely negative as gasoline falls from $4.40 to $3.75, close to a 20% drop. DRAM has turned down and tariffs are past their peak, with oil base effects kicking in after March.
- Infrastructure trade still beats the index. Visser expects S&P-plus returns from AI infrastructure for two to three more years. Nebius and CoreWeave are bonds rather than options because they cannot grow tenfold. He keeps buying even though recent purchases sit below his cost.
- AI lets companies run with few people. Visser and Pompliano both run AI-built businesses that need surprisingly few staff. Microsoft offering buyouts to 27% of employees is a warning sign at a level never seen before, and AI-native firms grow fast before competition arrives.
The road to 2028
- The midterms settle little and push politics to 2028, leaving two more years of AI progress and pressure on jobs.
- Affordability and the distribution of wealth were the top election issues, and Trump's promise of no more wars weakened when the US went into Iran.
- JD Vance is now on a different page from the president and has to start preparing for 2028.
- Iran signalled readiness to talk, and pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz would take two to three years to build.