The Pomp Podcast
00:35:14 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:35:14] S3: the Intel Marvell as kind of the, alright, this month sucks, but then when the midterms hit, I mean, I've got rumors of two major hedge fund closures of either the entire firm or the equity business that would be a lot of what's going on today. Regardless of what's true and what... What's not true, because I've learned in my hedge fund days that you just don't know what's going on, I think the no mas thing has hit for the hedge fund world in terms of being able to run risk. And I'll say it again, and I'll say it again, and I'll say it again. When you're running leverage of that magnitude and you had issues with CoreWeave debt, you had issues with French debt, you had issues with Marvell, issues with Intel, issues with Google falling, what... When you start to have these things go on, if you have leverage like situational awareness, which was going through x today that he's in trouble again, and he has to be. There's just no way around it based on what I heard. [00:36:14] S1: I just wrote that down. That's how you think our boy Leopold's doing.
00:36:14 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:36:14] S1: I just wrote that down. That's how you think our boy Leopold's doing. [00:36:17] S3: I I have a feeling, everyone who has certainty on a trade... And again, this is... Remember we talked about LTCM, like, a month ago, and I said this is like LTCM. It's still like LTCM, guys. I'm trying to find the bottom of it. I just know I have no chance of finding the bottom of it, but I also don't believe that the AI trade is over. But for people like, let's say, Leopold is in trouble again, the reason he's in trouble is not because fundamentally Micron won't make the numbers they're saying. It's that you may not have the time to be in the trade based on the way the structure of your positions, the debt, the the liquidity, all of the things that happen, how many losses can you take? And when you've got a $100 that have been given to you and you have 300 or $400 of positions and the markets are moving at an incredibly insane pace where you can have your shorts going up. And for people who don't know this, we are one day from. So Wednesday, there was an all time high in equal weight S and P. I don't know if you knew that. So with all of the carnage post midterms, equal weight S and P made an all time high the day after. So that means that a lot of stocks went higher, a lot of AI names went down, and so for people that are in the AI trade and they've been trying to hedge it, there's nowhere to hide.
00:37:38 · Anthony Pompliano
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00:39:50 · Anthony Pompliano
And I don't know if it's because presidential aspirations or whatever, but just like there was a clear divergence there. Now if he somehow does impact a, quote, unquote, truce, a, end to the war, some sort of, like, culmination event where we say, okay. The Iran thing is over. Does oil go back down? What happens to the equity markets? Like, how do you see Bitcoin, gold, other assets responding to that event?
00:40:15 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:40:15] S3: So all I can do is not being an oil expert, but just taking the facts of what happened. When the strait was actually shut, like truly shut, the price of oil did not go to the levels that people thought it would. So somehow or another, that tells you that something happened differently. All the speculation that happens, oh, China stopped importing, this is a temporary thing. Like, every theory that happened, the price of oil did not go as high as people thought. I do believe that if you ask me what Iran wanted, I don't think any geopolitical person would argue that in their perfect world, they would want the price of oil to be a cause for Trump to lose the election. You agree with that? A 100%. So then I don't find it to be a coincidence that they, which these are the facts that I've... We've all heard. Oil's flowing. There's traffic going through the strait. The US has a blockade, so it's made it very difficult on the Iranian government. They still have the potential to bomb them in a way that they clearly know would be detrimental. They've lost the straight, and they have a blockade for getting any money. So when you put all that together, and one fact that I don't hear people talk enough about, there's pipelines being constructed that every oil person that I've heard forecast will take two to three years to be done, and maybe it's now one and three quarters to two and three quarters, you've heard the same thing, to bypass the strait. Well, means that Iran's losing. At some point, they lose. [00:42:03] S1: Mhmm.
00:42:03 · Jordi Visser
[00:42:03] S3: If this... And we know this is happening because they're bombing the pipes that are still in existence. So if Iran has one time to negotiate, it would seem like now would be the prime time. You've got a disconnect between Vance and Trump. You have the Republicans saying we have to end this war because it cost us this, we have to be ready for the next election. That says to me there's a chance that there can be something done. Let's put it this way. I think there's less chance than we thought of a move higher, and I always do believe that these price moves that are this massive, there's probably more insight into what was going on. So that's my, like, kinda putting the tea leaves together. I don't have a position in it. I don't really care that much. The reason it falls important for Bitcoin, that means that CPI will be negative for the December reading for November, most likely, because November is gonna have a very sharp gas at the pump. Gas at the pump has already fallen from $4.40 to $4.10. The current futures price for unleaded gas, because it takes a while for gas at the pump to fall the same pace as the futures, The futures are equivalent as of this morning of three seventy five. So that would be another 35¢, which would be... Take us from $4.40 to $3.75, which if people do the math, gets you pretty close to a 20% fall. That would mean that headline CPI has a sharp negative number. And like I said, DRAM year over year is turning down, the tariff stuff, we've passed the the peak, and now we're gonna be passed the peak on oil, and the base effects kick in for oil when we get through March of next year, and everything starts to go down where year over year oil is negative. So my whole estimate is that the inflation fears have peaked as well now.