Bloomberg Talks
00:01:54 · Kailey Leinz, Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz
[00:01:54] S0: The home of your convention? [00:01:55] S3: Yeah, home of our convention. It's a very, very swing state. And when you look at these numbers, you're seeing two things. big women turnout, especially suburban women, and then Republicans voting two or three points less than usual. You hear all this concern about Republican enthusiasm. That's why the president was on the campaign trail at the end trying to fix that. And so that's what you're seeing in North Carolina. [00:02:17] S0: So if you're a Republican like Greg Murphy, are you in trouble tonight? [00:02:21] S3: You're in deep trouble. Yeah, that's why the House, you know, we're talking about the Senate all the time because both parties now believe the House is Democratic. The question is just how much. [00:02:31] S2: Well, and obviously we care very much about the results tonight and what they will mean for the next two years. But how important will it be for Democrats, Jim, if we do see some of these states that at least in more recent history have been bright red? If Democrats can win a state ride race in Texas or in a state like Kansas, or if we're even talking about South Carolina and Mississippi, how does it change the map for the cycles to come in. [00:02:53] S0: 2028 and beyond? [00:02:55] S3: It's the best question. First of all, it changes the presidential map, which is what I care the most about. The most predictive factor on a presidential election is who has the governorships in these things. There's a chance after tonight the Democrats have governorships in every single battleground state.
00:02:55 · Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz, Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz
[00:02:55] S3: It's the best question. First of all, it changes the presidential map, which is what I care the most about. The most predictive factor on a presidential election is who has the governorships in these things. There's a chance after tonight the Democrats have governorships in every single battleground state. [00:03:10] S0: Wow. [00:03:11] S3: I mean, that is what we'll see on Georgia. Obviously, Nevada is really close in a tied race as well. Those are the two races I'm really looking at. So the governorships are looking really, really good. And then, you know, if Texas is really in play, if Talarico wins, suddenly that's a battleground presidential state. And that really changes the map. [00:03:31] S1: You used to talk about a 50-state strategy when you were working with Barack Obama. That became a laugh line in the years that followed for many Democrats. If we see states like Kansas, Texas, South Carolina flip, Is it back to a 50-state strategy for Democrats in 28? [00:03:46] S3: It has to, because if we win the House and if we win the Senate, we will have won it because of rural, more red districts. And so that's the most important thing. I just met with my 29th person who's thinking about running for president of the United States. [00:04:00] S0: 29th. See, they all call Messina. [00:04:01] S2: Just on the Democratic side.
00:04:01 · Kailey Leinz, Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz, Joe Mathieu
[00:04:01] S2: Just on the Democratic side. [00:04:02] S3: Just on the Democratic side, right? Everyone's kicking tires. And when you talk about the map, suddenly you're talking about Texas. You're talking about Arizona, a state where Barack Obama didn't compete either time. Georgia, we didn't compete there either time. North Carolina is now moving blue. The map is just much better if we win some of these. We last won a statewide race in Texas in 1994, my senior year in college. [00:04:27] S0: I'm now a member of the AARP. [00:04:29] S3: So it has been a little bit of time. [00:04:32] S2: Can I just ask how many of those almost 30 candidates or possible candidates you've talked to are currently on the ballot in this cycle? [00:04:39] S1: Hmm. [00:04:40] S3: Not very many because it's hard to run now and then run again. [00:04:45] S2: So that list could get longer. [00:04:46] S3: That list can get longer because I haven't met with a certain senator from Georgia who I think a lot of people think is running. [00:04:53] S2: So you don't buy that Jon Ossoff is intending to... serve out the six-year term he could be elected to tonight? [00:04:58] S0: No, I do not, ma'am. [00:04:59] S3: No, I think Barack Obama said something similar. [00:05:01] S1: Yeah.
00:05:01 · Joe Mathieu, Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz, Kailey Leinz
[00:05:01] S1: Yeah. [00:05:03] S3: I think you look and everyone's going to look and see what the lessons they learned from the election. And I think, you know, if you look at the map, if you look at the Democratic primary map, it sits very well for a Southern politician, putting South Carolina early in the map and Virginia. And so I think if you're Ossoff, if you're Andy Beshear, if you're Raphael Warnock, you're going to kick the tires. [00:05:26] S1: I mean, you can say anything now as long as the nation needs you. You just, you know, you can change your mind later down the road, right? [00:05:31] S0: Joe, the nation needs you. [00:05:31] S1: You're just going to be drafted by the party. How many lawyers are calling you about the day after? [00:05:36] S3: Tons. I serve as co-chair of Democracy Defenders with former White House counsel Norm Eisen. And this is our biggest concern. You know, we've been taking some of these cases up to court. There's lots of concern about what's going to happen in Alaska. You know, there's normal ballot problems. You guys have been covering them today. There's lots of concern about this. We know that no matter what happens, the president is unlikely to want to accept it. And so we'll probably be talking about this for the next couple of weeks. [00:06:03] S2: Well, and more lawyers means more money will have to be spent. And we've already seen a lot of money spent. This is the most expensive election cycle in U.S. [00:06:11] S0: History.
00:06:11 · Kailey Leinz, Kailey Leinz, Jim Messina, Joe Mathieu
[00:06:11] S0: History. [00:06:12] S2: Some $ 12 billion spent on behalf of candidates. You have more than half a billion dollars spent in Texas alone. Have we learned something about the efficacy of the incremental dollars in the modern- Do they need to be spending this much money all across the country? [00:06:28] S3: No, and voters are over it and they're sick of it. The Spanish election is happening right now. They can, by law, spend 29 million euro. It's six weeks, you can't campaign outside the window, and they have higher turnout than we do. Wow. This system, look, it makes guys like me rich, and that's wonderful, we're all capitalists. But this spending is ridiculous. We do not need $ 12 billion dollars. to litigate a midterm election. [00:06:54] S1: This is a very truthful conversation. You know we're on the air here, right? How come Barack Obama is still the biggest draw for Democrats on the trail? We were laughing a couple of weeks ago. Still Obama and Trump a decade later. Is that good or bad for the party? [00:07:10] S0: It's good.
00:07:10 · Kailey Leinz, Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz, Joe Mathieu
[00:07:10] S0: It's good. [00:07:10] S3: He's someone who can unite the wings of the Democratic Party. Both parties have split. and have real internal challenges. Barack Obama is the gold standard of every wing of our party. And him holding it together until there's a Democratic nominee, I think is very, very helpful. And it's exactly what we need. Everyone says all the time, we need a new voice, we need a new voice. We'll have one after the Democratic primary for president. And then that's a natural transition time. Right now, we're in the minority. And so you go back, the most popular political figure in America is Barack Obama. And we'd be crazy not to use him. [00:07:45] S2: Well, And yet we are seeing some new voices enter the scene in the Democratic Party, like, for example, the Democratic nominee in Michigan, more progressives, outright people who are members of the Democratic Socialists of America who could end up members of Congress at the end of tonight. What have you learned about the direction your party is heading from what has happened in this midterm. [00:08:03] S1: Cycle, Jim? [00:08:04] S3: Thank you for asking this, because there's this perception, especially in this town of New York, that the party's just going so far left. I was with a bunch of Democratic donors last night, and they were losing their minds over this. [00:08:15] S0: It's not really true.