Bloomberg Talks
00:00:02 · Kailey Leinz, Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz, Jim Messina
[00:00:02] S0: Bloomberg Audio Studios. [00:00:04] S1: Podcasts. [00:00:05] S0: Radio. [00:00:06] S2: News. And I'm pleased to say joining us now in our studios here at World Headquarters in New York. is Jim Messina, of course, the campaign manager of Obama's 2012 re-election campaign. He's now CEO of Fortius Global, with us now live on Balance of Power. It's great to see you in person, Jim. Very happy Election Day. [00:00:24] S0: Yeah, very exciting. World headquarters. Yes. [00:00:27] S1: Amazing. [00:00:28] S0: Thanks for coming in. [00:00:29] S2: Pulling in the big guns for a big day. How are you feeling on this Election Day, obviously, as held today? But we've seen so many people vote early. It does seem early indications are that more Democrats have done so. What does it mean for the ultimate outcome? [00:00:41] S3: Quietly, cautiously excited. The early vote numbers that you talked about are really the only thing I care about. These polls can bounce all over. We've been talking about polls for years. The early vote numbers show historic numbers with two targeted demographics that I really follow very closely, African-American voters and young voters. Usually in a midterm election, young voters don't vote in such high percentages. When you look at some of the early votes out of Georgia, out of Texas, You're seeing some really big numbers. And so I think that, you know, bodes well. But we're Democrats. We could screw up free wine on a Friday. So, like, you know, we've blown things worse than this. So we're not taking anything for granted.
00:00:41 · Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz, Joe Mathieu
[00:00:41] S3: Quietly, cautiously excited. The early vote numbers that you talked about are really the only thing I care about. These polls can bounce all over. We've been talking about polls for years. The early vote numbers show historic numbers with two targeted demographics that I really follow very closely, African-American voters and young voters. Usually in a midterm election, young voters don't vote in such high percentages. When you look at some of the early votes out of Georgia, out of Texas, You're seeing some really big numbers. And so I think that, you know, bodes well. But we're Democrats. We could screw up free wine on a Friday. So, like, you know, we've blown things worse than this. So we're not taking anything for granted. [00:01:23] S0: All right. Well, you know, just more on the early vote. [00:01:26] S1: North Carolina specifically saw some remarkable numbers this morning. More than 2.8 million North Carolinians have already cast ballots. Registered Democrats hold the edge. With 38.3% of total ballots then unaffiliated at 35, Republicans at 26, not every state has this. [00:01:44] S0: Party breakdown. How do you read into North Carolina? [00:01:47] S3: Well, it's really interesting. North Carolina is the only state I targeted for Obama in 2012 that we lost. We've been trying to get this Senate seat for 12 years. [00:01:54] S0: The home of your convention?
00:01:54 · Kailey Leinz, Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz
[00:01:54] S0: The home of your convention? [00:01:55] S3: Yeah, home of our convention. It's a very, very swing state. And when you look at these numbers, you're seeing two things. big women turnout, especially suburban women, and then Republicans voting two or three points less than usual. You hear all this concern about Republican enthusiasm. That's why the president was on the campaign trail at the end trying to fix that. And so that's what you're seeing in North Carolina. [00:02:17] S0: So if you're a Republican like Greg Murphy, are you in trouble tonight? [00:02:21] S3: You're in deep trouble. Yeah, that's why the House, you know, we're talking about the Senate all the time because both parties now believe the House is Democratic. The question is just how much. [00:02:31] S2: Well, and obviously we care very much about the results tonight and what they will mean for the next two years. But how important will it be for Democrats, Jim, if we do see some of these states that at least in more recent history have been bright red? If Democrats can win a state ride race in Texas or in a state like Kansas, or if we're even talking about South Carolina and Mississippi, how does it change the map for the cycles to come in. [00:02:53] S0: 2028 and beyond? [00:02:55] S3: It's the best question. First of all, it changes the presidential map, which is what I care the most about. The most predictive factor on a presidential election is who has the governorships in these things. There's a chance after tonight the Democrats have governorships in every single battleground state.
00:02:55 · Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz, Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz
[00:02:55] S3: It's the best question. First of all, it changes the presidential map, which is what I care the most about. The most predictive factor on a presidential election is who has the governorships in these things. There's a chance after tonight the Democrats have governorships in every single battleground state. [00:03:10] S0: Wow. [00:03:11] S3: I mean, that is what we'll see on Georgia. Obviously, Nevada is really close in a tied race as well. Those are the two races I'm really looking at. So the governorships are looking really, really good. And then, you know, if Texas is really in play, if Talarico wins, suddenly that's a battleground presidential state. And that really changes the map. [00:03:31] S1: You used to talk about a 50-state strategy when you were working with Barack Obama. That became a laugh line in the years that followed for many Democrats. If we see states like Kansas, Texas, South Carolina flip, Is it back to a 50-state strategy for Democrats in 28? [00:03:46] S3: It has to, because if we win the House and if we win the Senate, we will have won it because of rural, more red districts. And so that's the most important thing. I just met with my 29th person who's thinking about running for president of the United States. [00:04:00] S0: 29th. See, they all call Messina. [00:04:01] S2: Just on the Democratic side.
00:04:01 · Kailey Leinz, Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz, Joe Mathieu
[00:04:01] S2: Just on the Democratic side. [00:04:02] S3: Just on the Democratic side, right? Everyone's kicking tires. And when you talk about the map, suddenly you're talking about Texas. You're talking about Arizona, a state where Barack Obama didn't compete either time. Georgia, we didn't compete there either time. North Carolina is now moving blue. The map is just much better if we win some of these. We last won a statewide race in Texas in 1994, my senior year in college. [00:04:27] S0: I'm now a member of the AARP. [00:04:29] S3: So it has been a little bit of time. [00:04:32] S2: Can I just ask how many of those almost 30 candidates or possible candidates you've talked to are currently on the ballot in this cycle? [00:04:39] S1: Hmm. [00:04:40] S3: Not very many because it's hard to run now and then run again. [00:04:45] S2: So that list could get longer. [00:04:46] S3: That list can get longer because I haven't met with a certain senator from Georgia who I think a lot of people think is running. [00:04:53] S2: So you don't buy that Jon Ossoff is intending to... serve out the six-year term he could be elected to tonight? [00:04:58] S0: No, I do not, ma'am. [00:04:59] S3: No, I think Barack Obama said something similar. [00:05:01] S1: Yeah.
00:05:01 · Joe Mathieu, Jim Messina, Kailey Leinz, Kailey Leinz
[00:05:01] S1: Yeah. [00:05:03] S3: I think you look and everyone's going to look and see what the lessons they learned from the election. And I think, you know, if you look at the map, if you look at the Democratic primary map, it sits very well for a Southern politician, putting South Carolina early in the map and Virginia. And so I think if you're Ossoff, if you're Andy Beshear, if you're Raphael Warnock, you're going to kick the tires. [00:05:26] S1: I mean, you can say anything now as long as the nation needs you. You just, you know, you can change your mind later down the road, right? [00:05:31] S0: Joe, the nation needs you. [00:05:31] S1: You're just going to be drafted by the party. How many lawyers are calling you about the day after? [00:05:36] S3: Tons. I serve as co-chair of Democracy Defenders with former White House counsel Norm Eisen. And this is our biggest concern. You know, we've been taking some of these cases up to court. There's lots of concern about what's going to happen in Alaska. You know, there's normal ballot problems. You guys have been covering them today. There's lots of concern about this. We know that no matter what happens, the president is unlikely to want to accept it. And so we'll probably be talking about this for the next couple of weeks. [00:06:03] S2: Well, and more lawyers means more money will have to be spent. And we've already seen a lot of money spent. This is the most expensive election cycle in U.S. [00:06:11] S0: History.