Fortius CEO Jim Messina Talks Midterm Elections

Messina Reads the Early Vote as a Democratic Night

For Messina, the midterms are a data problem and the only data he trusts is the early vote. He reads it as a strong Democratic night that both parties expect will deliver the House, with the governorships that predict presidential elections as the real prize. He also thinks the party's left turn is overstated and that the 2028 field is already forming.

Takeaways

• Messina trusts early vote over polls. Polls bounce around, so he watches early vote, where African-American and young voter turnout is historic and Georgia and Texas are posting big numbers. He describes himself as quietly, cautiously excited about the results.
• North Carolina early vote points to Republican trouble. More than 2.8m ballots are cast, with registered Democrats at 38.3%, unaffiliated voters at 35% and Republicans at 26%. Suburban women are turning out and Republicans run two or three points below normal, leaving Greg Murphy in deep trouble.
• Governorships are the best presidential predictor. He calls governorships the most predictive factor in a presidential election and says Democrats could hold every battleground-state governorship, with Georgia and Nevada to watch. Texas becomes a presidential battleground if James Talarico wins, the first Democratic statewide win there since 1994.
• Both parties now assume a Democratic House. Messina says the only remaining question is how big the Democratic majority will be, and that his party is not taking anything for granted even as the early vote looks strong.
• Post-election litigation is already being organized. He co-chairs Democracy Defenders with former White House counsel Norm Eisen, and lawyers are already calling him about the day after the election. The group's biggest worry is Alaska and ordinary ballot problems, and it has taken cases to court.
• A $12bn cycle leaves voters fed up. The cycle was the most expensive in U.S. history, with about $12bn spent on behalf of candidates and over half a billion in Texas. Messina calls it ridiculous and cites Spain's 29-million-euro, six-week limit, which he says produces higher turnout.
• Moderates still win Democratic primaries. Messina says the perception of a hard-left turn is overstated, since moderate and conservative Democrats won three-fourths of primaries and economic-focused candidates keep winning. He expects Roy Cooper to take a Republican Senate seat and calls the DSA a bad development for his party.

The 2028 Democratic field

• Messina has met 29 people considering a presidential run, all Democrats, and says few are on the ballot this cycle because running now makes running again harder.