Prof G Markets
00:33:48 · Ed Elson, Robert Armstrong
[00:33:48] S3: that circumstance. But who cares? [00:33:50] S6: And... But who cares? So, like, the the big pillars of the stock market might stay standing under that circumstance. The circumstance being like, holy crap. We don't actually wanna finance this much capacity for AI data centers. A lot of people will feel the pain, but those pillars might might stay standing. But you do have another set of companies that have become incredibly important that won't fare so well, and that's the semiconductor complex, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and work work your way right down. Right? Those things would lose a massive amount of value. Right? And that would be a shock. Right? And, a less bigger shock than if it happened to Microsoft. But, you know, NVIDIA right now... Microsoft and the other hyperscalers, but NVIDIA right now is the most valuable company in the world still today, I think. And so those... That would be a nasty shock for those guys. So would it be a catastrophic 2008 style correction? My guess is no, because of the hyperscalers would probably do okay. Would there be some smoldering wreckage to pick through? Yes. Will you be glad you owned some ten year treasuries with a 5% yield going in? Probably yes again. [00:35:10] S3: No. Certainly.
00:35:10 · Ed Elson, Robert Armstrong
[00:35:10] S3: No. Certainly. [00:35:13] S6: And by the way, the nice thing about the five year, the ten year treasury, if I might just return to that topic here briefly. Yep. With a 5% yield on it, and you can get almost a 5% on the five year. Right? The nice thing about that is even if inflation does go up a little bit and rates don't go up a little bit, you have a little cushion in there. You know what I mean? The the the the ten year yield at 2%, you got no insulation. [00:35:39] S3: Yes. Right? [00:35:40] S6: You know, once you have a five year... A 5% yield and some of that yield is real yield, you got a little you got a little give. It's not gonna make you rich, but it... It'll protect you. You know? [00:35:51] S3: And that's exactly what people want right now, it seems. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. Well, it's really interesting stuff. Robert Armstrong is US financial commentator for the Financial Times, author of the Unhedged newsletter as well. Rob, as always, we appreciate your time. [00:36:05] S6: I appreciate coming on the show.
00:36:05 · Robert Armstrong, Ed Elson, S1
[00:36:05] S6: I appreciate coming on the show. [00:36:10] S3: Okay. That's it for today. Thanks for tuning in. And if you like this episode, please be sure to follow us on Spotify or Apple Podcasts or subscribe to our YouTube channel. You can also follow us on Instagram, TikTok, and across social media under the handle Prof G Markets. We really appreciate it. Stick around this week. We'll be covering Google and Microsoft's earnings, and the next Fed decision. We'll also be breaking down the markets with the one and only downtown Josh Brown on Friday. Don't miss it. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams. Our research team is Dan Shalon, Kristen O'Donohue, and Mia Silverio. And our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Prof Markets from Prof G Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson. I'll see you tomorrow. [00:37:07] S1: When you shop Kroger delivery, you can the savings you love and fresh groceries delivered right to your door. Our refrigerated trucks keep your items fresh while our associates are committed to getting every detail right, carefully selecting and packing your order with care Because bringing you fresh, quality groceries is what we do best. And right now, enjoy $30 off your first online order of $75 or more. Restrictions apply, seasight for details. Kroger, fresh for everyone.