Anthropic's S-1 shows $16.3bn in first-half revenue, up from $1.2bn, but a $72bn noncash charge drives an $80 billion-plus loss.
Ed Elson argues Anthropic has over $800bn in compute commitments absent from its income statement, and Paul Kedrosky says these non-cancelable obligations resemble discounted leases.
Robert Armstrong says the euphoria in stocks is broken, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 flat for six months and AI-boom industrials struggling since May, though he is not calling a crash.
Anthropic IPO Filing Omits Its $800 Billion Compute Bill
Funding and deals
Anthropic. AI lab filed its S-1 for an IPO, showing $16.3bn first-half revenue and a $693m operating loss, at a reported $2tn valuation.
Guest interviews
Paul Kedrosky, Managing Partner at SK Ventures. Anthropic's $693m operating loss beat his $1.1bn estimate, but he says it is nowhere near profitable and losses will probably worsen. Compute commitments are non-cancelable and resemble discounted leases, and going direct means heavy capex, with stock-based compensation forcing buybacks to offset dilution. He says growth must rebound from about 50% to about 64% in the fourth quarter.
Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator for the Financial Times and author of the Unhedged newsletter. He says winter is coming for stocks, noting the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have moved sideways for six months and AI-boom industrials such as GE Vernova and Caterpillar have struggled since May. The 19 basis point drop in the ten-year yield, he says, equals a 15% stock move. In a correction he expects CoreWeave to go to zero and chip makers to lose heavily, but no 2008-style collapse.
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