Uncapped with Jack Altman
00:36:23 · Jack Altman, Ev Randle
[00:36:23] S0: Yeah, but then it's like the nice thing is we know the answer. The market's telling us the answer. And the answer is that the inference companies in combination are doing mid single digits worth of total revenue. That's a reasonable proxy for open source because that's where it's running. And that's whatever percent of the labs companies. And you can argue for that there'll be some mix shift. But what we're basically seeing is that open source might five, it might be 12. It'll be some percentage like that unless there's some change of the overall spend, and that's what will be there. [00:36:57] S1: Yeah, so I think the synthesis between these two is that again, shout out Eric Vitrea. It all works. It all works. But also, the way it all works is, actually, they're probably not even rivalrous to each other. And I don't know if this would be the case, but also, I'm sure the Frontier Labs, they're probably even happy about there being an open source ecosystem because it probably creates all... Like, from an antitrust perspective [00:37:21] S0: 100%. [00:37:22] S1: If it's like, oh, they're getting too powerful, it's like, no, there's a healthy open source ecosystem where people can also use. And I think that's probably also healthy. Have no idea if that's an actual thing that they think about. But right now, this will be excluding the Yeah. [00:37:35] S0: I'm not sure the scalars. But... Yeah.
00:37:35 · Jack Altman, Ev Randle
[00:37:35] S0: I'm not sure the scalars. But... Yeah. [00:37:37] S1: Yeah. But if you look at... So, like, right now, if you look at the... So we'll exclude the hyperscalars because we have no idea how much open source inference they're doing. But if you look at just the inference clouds, as we've talked about, and then you look at just OpenAI and Anthropic this is very imperfect, but it gives us some Okay proxy. By the end of this year, I think the top three or four inference clouds will probably do like $6,000,000,000 of run rate ish. And then let's say OpenAI and Anthropic will do like $170,000,000,000 of run rate ish if their growth extrapolates from public disclosures. So that's like three ish percent thus far between the inference clouds and the top two frontier labs. If the growth continues [00:38:18] S0: Yeah, and maybe if you add the clouds in, maybe it's double at most or something like that. [00:38:22] S1: That's right. So we can say 5% to 10% in terms of revenue for open source versus closed. But if you have the growth that the labs have had and that people expect again, this isn't a guarantee, so this isn't a projection but if you do have the growth for three to four years on the frontier side, and the labs combined are at a trillion dollars and open source takes 10% of that, that is like $100,000,000,000 of revenue. And the inference market has consolidated. There's really only three players. [00:38:49] S0: We
00:38:49 · Jack Altman, Ev Randle
[00:38:49] S0: We [00:38:50] S1: have Fireworks, we have Baseten, we have Modal. There's other ones that are good and all that stuff, they really are the three champions of the market, and I think we're going to see more consolidation to those three than less. So you have probably two or three companies at that time splitting $100,000,000,000 of revenue, which is incredible. Which is incredible. Mean, it [00:39:09] S0: means one of those companies could be worth $100,000,000,000 or more. [00:39:11] S1: Probably both. You have a $40,000,000,000 company. Even if it's 50% gross margin, it's probably a $200,000,000,000 company. You have hundreds of billions of enterprise value for open source, and then you have the trillions in Frontier Labs. And everyone is very happy with that. That's humongous companies all around, and it's through the synthesis of open source will always, on a revenue basis, be some percentage of frontier, and whatever that percentage is, there's so much room for the inference platforms to grow.
00:39:11 · Ev Randle, Jack Altman
[00:39:11] S1: Probably both. You have a $40,000,000,000 company. Even if it's 50% gross margin, it's probably a $200,000,000,000 company. You have hundreds of billions of enterprise value for open source, and then you have the trillions in Frontier Labs. And everyone is very happy with that. That's humongous companies all around, and it's through the synthesis of open source will always, on a revenue basis, be some percentage of frontier, and whatever that percentage is, there's so much room for the inference platforms to grow. [00:39:41] S0: By the way, and then we can move on from this, but a couple of years ago, I feel like there was a worry of, man, it seems like AI is either going to wake up the Terminator Sam god, and everything's going to be really bad. It's too good. Or it's just not going to matter that much. Crypto all over again, head fake. And at the moment and this is why I'm happy to see the market reacting positively to Anthropic. It's like at the moment, unless RSI takes us into a weird place, we might actually be splitting the middle landing, where the labs are extremely important, but they are not $60,000,000,000,000 companies, where it is not useless technology that doesn't help anybody. That's a nice thing. Seems like the happy path. It seems like the... I feel like my odd... My P happy path is higher than it used to be, and that's awesome. Amazing. Which is amazing. [00:40:39] S1: That's amazing. It's amazing. Do you wanna talk about bio? Obviously, you've you've got... I I feel like you've been really interested
00:40:39 · Ev Randle, Jack Altman
[00:40:39] S1: That's amazing. It's amazing. Do you wanna talk about bio? Obviously, you've you've got... I I feel like you've been really interested [00:40:46] S0: in robotics. You've Yeah. I have been. Mean, the... I was going to go to the dark place of cyber. We could do cyber first. Let's do cyber. Let's do [00:40:53] S1: cyber first. [00:40:53] S0: Because that would be that is one of the scary things. And this last week, there was the PHP thing, and people are very afraid, and understandably so. It does feel like we are in a point in time where one of the risks that is most imminently being expressed is a cyber risk, where we've spoken to some prominent CEOs in the last few weeks who have told us that they've pointed frontier models inward and said, hack us. And the model's like, I'm going to hack the shit out of you. [00:41:22] S1: And it does. They said that day after day, they were getting company ending vulnerabilities surfaced. Yes. That like if it had been actually hacked from an external force. [00:41:33] S0: And these are great companies with great Vulnerable companies. With great engineering [00:41:38] S1: teams. Like tech forward companies. These aren't like old companies.
00:41:38 · Ev Randle, Jack Altman
[00:41:38] S1: teams. Like tech forward companies. These aren't like old companies. [00:41:42] S0: Obviously, when you attack internally, you have crazy advantages that outside attackers don't have. You've got all the data. You've got the code base. It's just a different thing. But still, it seems like fear could be on the horizon, and then you see all this stuff. So obviously, it's probably it's a good time to be a security company. But it is also a scary it's a scary first exposure of real risk, I would say. 100%. Yeah. [00:42:08] S1: And I think that the really scary thing is that cyber attacks, at least for the public, I feel like cyber attacks historically have been sort of an abstract thing, where at worst, your data was what... Like, your password for this website was was hacked. And then you get, like, some notice in the mail, and you, like, you know, you change your password, like, nothing actually happens. Yeah. And recently, there's been a lot creepier and more things that feel really personally intrusive that are both now possible and have actually been happening. And so I pulled up a few examples where there was a researcher who used Claude to disable a webcam's recording indicator. Wow. So started recording without the light coming on and accessed the microphone and the firmware. [00:43:03] S0: That's scary.