Wharton FinTech Podcast
00:26:04 · Vaibhav
[00:26:04] S0: I also want to circle back to the regulations we were discussing earlier. We all read about the termination of SAVE, but for the benefit of our listeners, could you walk us through what's happening with SAVE right now? Why is this moment important? And how does this affect the borrowers? And perhaps how does this change the calculus for someone who's looking for refinancing?
00:26:26 · Matt Palese
[00:26:26] S1: Yeah, great question. Lot to unpack here. To take a step back, the official end of SAVE, to your point, I think, is creating a lot of new questions and frankly is a real transition period for millions of borrowers who I think sort of built their financial plans around that program. That timeline is obviously a lot more clear now, July 1 is when borrowers will have ninety days to move off of this A program and enroll in a different federal plan. And for a lot of people, that switch will likely mean adjusting to a different monthly payment or a longer repayment timeline. And from my perspective, I think that transition is just another evolution that I think really changes the math for people considering refinancing in particular. And while many borrowers understandably stayed sort of in the federal system over the last several years to see how things will sort of settle and shake out, that landscape is changing. When you couple that with where federal interest rates are, in particular over the last three academic years, especially for graduate students in particular, they're up around 8%. So running the numbers now, given the clarity, makes a lot of sense. And so for, you know, again, certain borrower segments, whether you have a graduate or a professional degree who might not likely qualify or is more unlikely to qualify for federal subsidies anyway, seeing if a private lender like Earnest can offer a lower fixed rate is a much more practical step to take today than it was a few years ago. I think the other thing I'll say, and for the benefit of your listeners, is the role Earnest. And so what that might mean and what that might look like for borrowers is staying in the federal system, right? And sticking with federal loans. That could absolutely be the right move, but for others, this is a good moment to see if refinancing can give them some more predictability and a more cost effective path forward. And so we're just here to help them map that out.
00:28:46 · Vaibhav, Matt Palese
[00:28:46] S0: Yeah. And backtracking a little bit, for those who may not be familiar with what SAVE exactly is, could you just very briefly explain what the SAVE program is about as well? [00:28:56] S1: Yeah, so SAVE is a federal program that effectively allows borrowers the ability to increase their monthly cash flow by minimizing the amount of money they need to make towards their federal student loans. In a lot of cases, it's nothing or zero. And then over a certain period of time, that loan becomes eligible for a potential forgiveness scenario. And so those are sort of the high level kind of components that are being factored into the SAVE program. So the flexibility and the convenience that it provided to customers is quite substantial. And so back to my earlier point where the removal and the change of this program and how customers need to start thinking about the transition is extremely important. Because again, there's a couple of decisions that are gonna change the dynamics from potentially paying close to nothing to having to pay something. I think again, given the dynamic and the shift, given where we are, thinking about that in advance and figuring out if there's an alternative option for you to navigate to help ease that transition is incredibly important.
00:28:56 · Matt Palese, Vaibhav
[00:28:56] S1: Yeah, so SAVE is a federal program that effectively allows borrowers the ability to increase their monthly cash flow by minimizing the amount of money they need to make towards their federal student loans. In a lot of cases, it's nothing or zero. And then over a certain period of time, that loan becomes eligible for a potential forgiveness scenario. And so those are sort of the high level kind of components that are being factored into the SAVE program. So the flexibility and the convenience that it provided to customers is quite substantial. And so back to my earlier point where the removal and the change of this program and how customers need to start thinking about the transition is extremely important. Because again, there's a couple of decisions that are gonna change the dynamics from potentially paying close to nothing to having to pay something. I think again, given the dynamic and the shift, given where we are, thinking about that in advance and figuring out if there's an alternative option for you to navigate to help ease that transition is incredibly important. [00:30:11] S0: Yeah. And I think the flip side of the discussion is also that we do expect default rates to rise. We briefly spoke about this before, and that 2026 is going to hit record levels of default. In your view, how is that changing the borrower's stress level right now? And is that having a knock on effect on the refinancing behavior?
00:30:32 · Matt Palese
[00:30:32] S1: Yeah. So I think, you know, what we're actually seeing in the data is that past due balances that are ninety plus days delinquent is actually normalizing closer to pre pandemic levels, right around ten percent. To your point, we did see a massive spike when credit bureau reporting first resumed, but based on the last quarterly refresh of data, things are stabilizing now, and we're in a much better position overall and more consistent with, again, what we saw pre pandemic. You know, with all of that said, that doesn't mean that there isn't sort of real borrower stress out there. It just gives you the kind of the right context in terms of where we are. I think what those numbers really tell us is that the multi year payment pause created what I refer to as a budget illusion, if you will. And so what I mean by that is millions of people didn't have to make student loan payments for years, right? Which made it feel like they had more disposable income than they actually did. And so when payments turned back on, it was really a massive shock to the system because households suddenly had to find room for a bill that they didn't have to worry about for many years or they didn't budget for for many years. And so, you know, when it comes down to how kind of the environment that we're currently in today intersects with refinancing, I think you have to look at the reality of the people we serve, the customers we serve. I think refinancing requires you to have a stable income and a strong credit profile. But even for borrowers who meet that criteria and look great on paper today, often or sometimes encounter changing circumstances that may impact their ability to pay in the future, right? And we're always thinking about that. We're always contemplating sort of what that might look like. And more importantly, we're always thinking through how we can assist those borrowers through those periods. That's why those hardship protections really matter so much.
00:32:46 · Matt Palese, Vaibhav
And so, you know, to put that in perspective, at Earnest, we have things like skip a payment or temporarily interest only or temporary rate reduction programs for those that, if they hit a snag or experience a financial hardship, we can offer those types of programs to minimize and help with that transition for them, whatever it may be, whether it's dealing with an unexpected medical bill, whether it's dealing with a job transition. We have kind of real structural options to help them get back on track. I think these are the types of things that aren't talked about often with customers that I think is extremely important, especially as you think about the decision whether refinancing is right for you, is to often make sure that things change, right, all the time and the economic environment is very uncertain and it's very difficult to predict the future. But the one thing that we want to make sure is known is that if you do encounter an unfortunate circumstance that requires some assistance along the way to help you get back on your feet, we have options, we have programs to help you. [00:34:01] S0: My overall assessment is that there's a lot that's changing for the borrowers, regulations and otherwise, and a lot of change yet to come. I can only imagine that means there are more opportunities for Earnest to innovate, to the extent you can share if there's anything that you're building or anything that you're excited about that's yet to come for Earnest.