00:21:57 · John Coogan
[00:21:57] S1: It's just it's almost like the curse of size or something. Like, you're when you're a trillion dollar company, there's probably a world that the Meta Ray Ban display is a good example of like or Meta Ray Ban's a good example of like there's there's probably a piece of consumer hardware that's AI enabled, like the Ring or something where or or just getting really good at voice models or just getting really good at image models. And if they're a little bit more narrow and constrained, they could probably completely dominate that. But trying to do super intelligence and coding agents and it's a little it's a little scattered potentially. Serenity says there's a lot of disinformation going around about Meta cutting CapEx because they quote overbuilt. This is an if they have excess capacity and looks like the opposite right now. Hyperscalers like Google are so much are so compute constrained that they have had to cut allocations to Meta back in March since Meta was using too much for internal projects. Meta was immediately constrained, so it looks like they were forced to immediately sign massive $48,000,000,000 contracts with NeoClouds like CoreWeave and Nebias. Meta is selling excess capacity if there's any, especially since their large contracts are take or pay from the newer NeoClouds. Yeah. This all could just be like a a a potential like you're laying the groundwork in case you wind up in a situation where that is where the value is occurring, that's where the advantage for Meta is. So there certainly is a positive thesis there. Jae Eun says, We are still massively short compute. Meta and XAI are selling compute because there's no inference demand for their models. It's a compute allocation problem. Too much compute in the hands of players with no internal use for it, Not a compute surplus problem. Interesting. Well, we can continue to cover the story.
00:23:45 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Tyler
[00:23:45] S0: More meta news. [00:23:47] S1: What is that? [00:23:48] S0: Apparently, according to Bobby Allen over at NPR [00:23:51] S1: Oh, yeah. [00:23:51] S0: Had to consider buying Kalshi [00:23:53] S1: Yeah. [00:23:53] S0: Before it's developing its own prediction market app that is, sort of a classic meta [00:24:00] S1: Mhmm. [00:24:01] S0: Playbook. This sort of puts to bed your theory that, they might be just making a a, you know, Clout based. Clout based prediction markets where you compete for your ability to I see the [00:24:16] S5: Like I'm still Manifold is that, right? Yeah. So it's like a it's like a pretty big platform. [00:24:22] S1: Yes. But I was saying there's a chance right now based on the reporting that it could be the Manifold strategy or it could be the Polymarket Call Sheet strategy. And the fact that they didn't try and acquire Manifold, they tried to acquire Call Sheet sort of signals like, hey, they're probably going the the financially incentivized route which I think fits with your thesis that it's in consumer, it's profitable and growing very fast. And also Tarek from She was taking shots at Instagram saying it's brain rot. Saying that like every minute you spend on Call She is a minute that you're not spending brain rotting on Instagram, which is like, okay. I think a lot of people would say that these are like equivalent or maybe one is worse than the other. But, you know, that's a way to get attention.
00:25:07 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Jeffery Liu
[00:25:07] S0: Don't you think that so the potential pool of profits in prediction markets and and sports betting broadly, think in the last year was it a 100 and Tyler, can you check? I think it was like a 160 ish billion of like trading volume that is not at all equivalent to revenue, obviously. Yeah. But it doesn't It feels like, again, it's not a space that It's a space that has consistently had many many many players. Yeah. Wildly different than, you know, Meta's core social networking business. And I just wonder is like, is the potential profit pool Mhmm. Risk the attention that worth the risk of all the attention you're gonna get from lawmakers globally Mhmm. By integrating integrating like betting Mhmm. Into the product that is already under attack on like a million different fronts. Right? It feels like With [00:26:06] S1: the movie coming out and stuff, it's like you're jumping straight to [00:26:09] S0: the It feels like you have a golden goose. Right? And the goose is getting valued. [00:26:14] S1: The goose is getting valued. I'm gonna [00:26:16] S0: just keep going back to these slides. [00:26:17] S1: I love these slides. [00:26:18] S0: The goose is valued. It's producing golden eggs and you see another golden egg but it's almost like a poisoned golden egg. And if you bring it over [00:26:27] S2: Yeah. [00:26:27] S0: It might to the farm Spoiler goose. [00:26:29] S1: Okay. Yeah. [00:26:29] S0: Might kill your your main goose. [00:26:30] S1: Potentially. And so [00:26:31] S0: it feels feels risky. [00:26:33] S1: Yeah. I I just sent in
00:26:33 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:26:33] S1: Yeah. I I just sent in [00:26:35] S0: The true value is This really the [00:26:37] S1: is the rise of American gambling. These are losses by year in The United States. It's now almost at $250,000,000,000 So I wanted to think about getting into gambling. How what's the correct gambling strategy? And I got one. I got one. So you go to the Monarch Casino [00:26:58] S0: Wait. Americans are losing 240,000,000,000 [00:27:01] S1: a year, I think. Or maybe this is is this is cumulative? No. This isn't cumulative. This is this is per year? I don't know. I don't know. I just saw this image. It's high. It's growing. [00:27:12] S0: Doesn't look good.
00:27:13 · John Coogan
[00:27:13] S1: Doesn't look good. Here's a gambling strategy that might work out, not financial advice, but the Monarch Casino and Resort. If you this company went public in 1993. And if you went to the Monarch Casino and Resort and every week you gambled a $100 on their stock by buying the stock, over the run, one just gambling $100 a week on their stock from 1993 to today, you would have put in a $174,000, and it would be worth $3,300,000. So it just depends on where you want to gamble. Mhmm. Gamble on the stock potentially. It's a fascinating company. Golden Door Motel. Family owned. They have two assets. They have two they have two casinos and this company is just absolutely printing. 36% EBITDA margin and they buy back stock and they also pay a dividend. It's just two properties, Reno and Black Hawk in, where's Black Hawk, in Colorado. And they've just grown this like small chain of casinos and the company and the stock's done very well. So own the house, don't bet on the actual casino. Stay out of the casino. Stay in the stock market potentially. Anyway, moving on. Google Gemini, there's some news there. Google AI overviews decreased outbound organic clicks by 40%. Eric Souffert is sharing a new paper by researchers at Carnegie Mellon and the Indian School of Business finds that AI overviews were triggered in roughly forty one percent of observed Google searches and when triggered reduced outbound organic clicks by about 40%. That seems like one to one. The presence of AI overviews increased the likelihood of a zero click search by roughly 35%. Everyone is going Google zero at this point. And the founder, Josh Marshall, of TalkingPointsMemo wrote about Google AI, oligarchy and the end of the open web. It's an interesting read, but
00:29:14 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:29:14] S0: we'll go through it another time. December 2010. What happened? Demis was scraping together a couple million bucks This is a crazy for a small company called DeepMind. This is for a founder that just like, you know, had their started their career in the last few years. This is like in inconceivable. [00:29:36] S1: Mhmm. [00:29:36] S0: They're like, wait, you mean two on 50. Right? It's like, Sold Two on 50. Half the company Two on at 5,000,000 post as one of the most elite. Can you imagine what Technologists in the entire world. [00:29:52] S1: If it stayed independent this whole time. I don't know. May may maybe there'd be another another path or something. [00:29:57] S0: Are you saying they sold too early? [00:29:58] S1: It seemed like they sold too early. I don't know. Hard to say. Hard to say. [00:30:04] S0: Paper hands? Paper hands, Pete? [00:30:06] S1: No. No. No. No. I think all the VCs didn't want to sell. Especially because the whole Google thing, that was like the whole story was was don't sell to Google. Google's like the bad one. Which is funny because like Google's been very responsible and and you know, great great company. I was I was playing around with v o three or v o four. Where where are we in the v o models? So good and yet still not indistinguishable from reality. We're we're we're so so close and yet so far if you want to generate a video these days. It is cool you can do it on your phone though. I like it. Where do you want to go next? Have our [00:30:48] S0: next Millennials.