Bloomberg Talks
00:02:44 · S0, David Paleologos, S1
[00:02:44] S0: Well, we asked. [00:02:46] S2: What I found fascinating, you know, you were talking about Michigan earlier. What I found fascinating was that one quarter of likely voters said that they had not seen or heard about the ad. That was after a week of national news, local news. So, I'm wondering how many people in Michigan are gonna be oblivious about what just happened yesterday in terms of casting ballots. But no, Ohio was pretty definitive for both Democrats. The trick in Ohio is the third party candidate, Kisik, Don Kisik, who's a libertarian. That vote, and it's gonna be around 3%, has been a buffer between Amy Acton, the Democrat, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican. So you could see a break where Amy Acton only, I say only, gets to 51 or 52, but still wins by five or six because the libertarian vote. There are some people who did not like the ad but will never vote Democratic. So what do they do? They either don't vote or they vote for some form of conservative politics and they'll cast for the Libertarian. A lot of people are talking about that third party candidate, but he'll factor in the margin. [00:04:08] S1: And then that trickles down the Senate race, yeah?
00:04:08 · S1, David Paleologos, S0
[00:04:08] S1: And then that trickles down the Senate race, yeah? [00:04:11] S2: Oh, sure. You know, the Senate race, you know, we polled it twice. In September, we had Brown plus three. We had Brown plus three in the more recent poll. And again, you know, the difference between this election in 2024 and the difference between this election in 2018, is that independents have swung away from Republicans. It's not necessarily an embrace of Democratic core values. It's that these independents, they've left the Republican Party by a wide margin. And Iowa Turek was winning independents in the high 20s. Same thing in the Ohio Senate race. Brown was winning 27, 28-point lead among independents. or self-identified independence in Ohio. [00:05:03] S1: It's pretty remarkable when we talk about things in terms of waves, and there are going to be exceptions, of course, across the night. David, give us a sense tomorrow evening, 7, 8 o'clock, what are the districts on the East Coast that you're looking at for clues? [00:05:17] S2: Maine, New Hampshire, Georgia, North Carolina. [00:05:20] S0: For starters. Okay. [00:05:22] S2: Right. Those are, you know, I mean, house is different. I mean, you know, house is definitely more regional. But I mean, we were talking earlier about 230 as the as, you know, Mike Johnson saying people are dreaming. Yeah. [00:05:38] S0: I mean, I'm looking at a.
00:05:38 · S0, David Paleologos, S1
[00:05:38] S0: I mean, I'm looking at a. [00:05:39] S2: House that could be 240 to 250 after tomorrow. And I'm looking at a Senate that could be 53, 54 easily. The thing I would think about in the Iowa, which, I mean, in the Senate is Iowa in the Midwest, because we polled it twice. First time Republicans were winning both. Second time Democrats were winning both. Is that the conventional wisdom is that Republicans are going to take Iowa, hence it is enough distance from Trump, and so therefore should be able to maintain it. I'm going to stick with our poll showing Turek a winner. And if Turek wins, that's going to be an automatic for Ohio and Michigan, and it opens up Kansas and Nebraska. If Turek loses, then you could have a closer and later night on election night. [00:06:28] S0: Incredible. [00:06:29] S1: And I think you're onto something, David, when it comes to the race in Michigan. People were watching football. They were stealing their kids' candy from Halloween. I find it hard to believe that that move, while it did give some Democrats permission to vote for Mike Rogers, that this probably wouldn't move a poll dramatically if. [00:06:46] S0: You took it today, right? We've got about 30 seconds.
00:06:46 · S0, David Paleologos, S1
[00:06:46] S0: You took it today, right? We've got about 30 seconds. [00:06:49] S2: Yeah, I mean, not everybody's going to copy and paste what happened. I mean, look, 2 million people have already voted. There's another 2.5 million people out there. But most of those people out there remaining are Republicans who don't vote early. So you've got some Democrats and independents who have not yet voted. But the undecided is very low. And the current polling shows, you know, El-Sayed winning by 250,000 votes. There aren't enough votes left. And keep one other thing in mind. There are six candidates on that Michigan ballot for Senate, not two. So people might not vote for Rogers. They may not vote for El-Sayed, but they could vote. for a Green Party candidate or a Natural Law Party candidate as a matter of expression in that election. [00:07:38] S0: Just to make it even more interesting. [00:07:40] S1: David Paleologos, Selection Eve. It's great to see you, David. And thank you for sharing some insights with us. The force behind the Suffolk University Political Research Center. [00:07:49] S0: I should have asked him if he likes foie gras.