David Paleologos predicts a House of 240-250 seats and a Senate of 53-54.
Paleologos says the economy is driving swing-state independents away from Republicans, with consumer confidence down from 139 in 2018 to the low 90s.
Paleologos says current polling shows El-Sayed ahead in Michigan by 250,000 votes with not enough votes left for Mike Rogers.
Economy and independents decide midterms, Paleologos says
The 2026 midterms are less a verdict on Democratic ideas than a referendum on the economy. Consumer confidence has collapsed from 2018 levels, interest rates are above 7%, and Trump's approval is in the mid-to-high 30s, so independents in swing states are drifting away from Republicans. David Paleologos expects Republicans to hold both chambers anyway, with Iowa as the clearest early signal of how the night will go.
Takeaways
Economy is the decisive midterm force. Paleologos says the economy is decisive. Consumer confidence fell from 139 in 2018 to the low 90s, interest rates are above 7% versus 5% or less, and Trump's approval is in the mid-to-high 30s against 44% in October 2018.
Independents swing away from Republicans. Paleologos says independents have swung away from Republicans by a wide margin, not toward Democratic core values. In Ohio, Brown led independents by 27 to 28 points, and Turek was winning Iowa independents by a margin in the high 20s.
Ohio governor race tied after Ramaswamy ad. Suffolk's Ohio poll had Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton tied at 44% each after a Ramaswamy ad offended people on both sides. A quarter of likely voters had not seen it, and Libertarian Don Kisik's roughly 3% is a buffer.
Michigan early vote favors El-Sayed. Paleologos says 2m votes are already cast in Michigan and 2.5m remain, mostly Republicans who do not vote early. Undecideds are very low, and current polling has El-Sayed ahead by 250,000 with not enough votes left for Mike Rogers.
Third-party votes offer an outlet. Voters who disliked Ramaswamy's ad but will never vote Democratic will abstain or back a conservative or Libertarian. In Michigan, six Senate candidates are on the ballot, so voters unwilling to back Mike Rogers or El-Sayed can choose a Green or Natural Law candidate.
GOP dismisses Democratic House chances. Mike Johnson campaigned with 91 candidates at more than 90 events across 24 states in the final month and called Democratic hopes of reaching 230 House seats hilarious. The host noted the expectation had been a Democratic House and a Senate that remained a question.
Election night watchlist
Paleologos names Maine, New Hampshire, Georgia and North Carolina as the East Coast places to watch. Iowa is the bellwether. A Turek win would be an automatic for Ohio and Michigan and would open Kansas and Nebraska, while a loss could mean a closer, later night.
Paleologos expects a House of 240 to 250 seats and a Senate of 53 or 54 seats, which would leave Republicans holding both chambers.
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