The Pomp Podcast
00:10:47 · Jordi Visser
[00:10:47] S3: I mean, we've talked about it. The reason that I'm interested in Bitcoin is because I'm looking for things that are benefiting from growth that is going to happen of which there's gonna be difficulty for competition. So the first thing is the crypto ecosystem. There's no doubt in my mind that tokenization, that agentic commerce, that all of those things are gonna happen over the course of the next two years. The one thing, the data center moratorium, that may create doubt in terms of, 2028 and this, but I've never been a believer that all of that compute that was necessary down the line... We don't know how much of it will be necessary. We just we just don't. We don't know the progress on the models. We don't know when we're gonna reach certain levels. I have people that are very smart on the tech side that swear to me, oh, no. We won't need memory in three years. We blah blah blah. I don't believe any of that stuff, but I do believe competition is coming, I think the Chinese are coming, I think other places are going, I think there's tremendous amounts of manufacturing and innovation that's happening, and I don't think we know what problems AI can solve. So, I do think over the course of the next three years, crypto is something that is a growth that should benefit Bitcoin. But then the other thing about Bitcoin is I do believe in in this this world. You wanna find something where money goes into that's growing. Bitcoin doesn't have the hurdles that stocks do. So you gotta remember, you've been doing this for a long time with Bitcoin. It's
00:12:17 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:12:17] S1: been [00:12:17] S3: under attack for the entire time. [00:12:20] S1: Correct. [00:12:22] S3: Public companies are going to be under attack. So the last twelve years, would say the mag seven or the hyperscalers, whatever you... Whichever one you wanna do it, both parties at some point were against them being so big. Even Trump to some degree. The problem is we need the AI build out, so it's very hard to stop them from it if you believe in the political side, which is why I think the current administration has focused on the race against AI. But I think going forward, this is not just government involvement. AI is an incredibly disruptive force. You and I both have businesses that are built on AI, where we're shocked at how few people we need to build the business. I think it's very, very challenging when you have something that very few people are using, and they're not using it because AI is hated in this country. It is absolutely hated, and more and more that's become evident to me. The voting, AI was not popular, data centers was not as big a story as affordability, but the distribution of wealth is a big story, and that again gets attached to AI. So I just think anyone that doesn't believe that there'll be government involvement, we've already seen it with Intel, We've seen it open up with OpenAI and Anthropic in terms of what it would be, and we're seeing already them involved more and more. I just think when the government gets involved in public markets, you can't expect the same types of returns.
00:13:42 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:13:42] S1: Based on what you're saying is, if the public markets are essentially uninvestable or getting close to that, why not put all of your money in Bitcoin? Like, what keeps you from just concentrating in your best idea? [00:13:55] S3: Well, you mean me personally? [00:13:56] S1: Just as an investor. Right? Like, forget your exact portfolio, but just... Okay. By process of elimination, if housing is not gonna drive a return in real estate, if, you know, the largest companies in America are not gonna drive, a return, if AI is gonna come under pressure because of the blue wave, you kinda end up with there's only so many assets, and if Bitcoin is the thing that you feel like is best insulated and best positioned, how do you stop putting money in? Like, at what point do you say, hey. I shouldn't put more money into this in my portfolio. Why not all of it?
00:14:27 · Jordi Visser
[00:14:27] S3: So Bitcoin is is, you know, a trillion and 0.5, trillion 7 asset. It's still doubted by almost everyone who has the money. Mhmm. We've seen such a dramatic shift in the last twelve months in terms of the banks. I mean, first it was the government saying, we're all in on Bitcoin. Now you have all the banks basically bending over backwards to basically be all in on selling people Bitcoin. So we've seen some things happen in the last two years with the ETF, with everything, where greed eventually sets in. These are the people selling things. The outstanding shares for the Bitcoin ETF hit new all time highs despite the fact that we are significantly off the all time highs, which means wealth managers are still putting money in there because as a diversification, I think it's legitimate. Now you and I talked about some of the headwinds for Bitcoin in the beginning part of this year. I did a video today, I don't know if you got a chance to see it, but I sent it to you. But there's a bunch of things in there which kind of fit in with this story in the bigger picture. Number one, I think with the midterms, we've eliminated the the bubble risk, which sounds funny when the market's going down, but my argument would be there isn't a bubble risk yet because we haven't done enough of the debt. We haven't done enough of the spending yet. If there was a macro event which slowed down the demand side or something happened in the next couple years and these guys spent more and more money, think it would be an issue. But if we're all believing that they're not gonna spend as much money for 2028, well then that would mean that CapEx would probably be less next year. They've already started on the stuff that'll happen now. If they're worried about 2028, maybe there'll be a delay and that would be good for the bubble risk, meaning it would push out the build out further and further, and that would be good. Second thing is there'd be less capital needed. That's put enormous pressure on rates to go higher. Second thing is if people believe that the market is gonna go down and there's gonna be of a build out and Brad Gerstner says this is 50 basis points off GDP, well then that means that growth will come down, which means rates should come down. At the same time, one of the contributors to inflation this year has been DRAM prices.
00:16:31 · Jordi Visser
DRAM prices have already peaked, Not in terms of their actual price, but in their growth rate. They're in a negative declining year over year growth rate right now, and that's only gonna get worse as we go through the year because the biggest portion of the gains happen really from September to March. So by the time we get to March, you're gonna start seeing the base effects kick in. The base effects are gonna kick in for oil because now you have oil down at levels. You're getting gas at the pump down. We have the tariffs rolling off. So when you go through everything, a lot of those things were negatives for Bitcoin this year, they were negatives for gold because they were all related to liquidity. And I think the liquidity headwinds are gonna drop off, and that's what I did in the video, to just highlight to people that maybe something good comes out of this for Bitcoin, but the biggest thing is the volatility and the lack of certainty on AI going forward. So again, June, fireworks show's over. We're never again gonna see what we saw in the first half for the agentic compute trade. From that point on, it's gonna have to be a grind. We've seen hedge fund deleveraging. I think this is all part of the bigger script. I think AI is causing this, and I think it will continue to cause a disruption from politics, a disruption in bottlenecks, a disruption in all of these different things. And I think people have to start to think about adjusting their portfolios, and I do think that that is what's gonna play out over the course of the next five years.
00:17:55 · Anthony Pompliano
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