The Pomp Podcast
00:39:50 · Anthony Pompliano
And I don't know if it's because presidential aspirations or whatever, but just like there was a clear divergence there. Now if he somehow does impact a, quote, unquote, truce, a, end to the war, some sort of, like, culmination event where we say, okay. The Iran thing is over. Does oil go back down? What happens to the equity markets? Like, how do you see Bitcoin, gold, other assets responding to that event?
00:40:15 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:40:15] S3: So all I can do is not being an oil expert, but just taking the facts of what happened. When the strait was actually shut, like truly shut, the price of oil did not go to the levels that people thought it would. So somehow or another, that tells you that something happened differently. All the speculation that happens, oh, China stopped importing, this is a temporary thing. Like, every theory that happened, the price of oil did not go as high as people thought. I do believe that if you ask me what Iran wanted, I don't think any geopolitical person would argue that in their perfect world, they would want the price of oil to be a cause for Trump to lose the election. You agree with that? A 100%. So then I don't find it to be a coincidence that they, which these are the facts that I've... We've all heard. Oil's flowing. There's traffic going through the strait. The US has a blockade, so it's made it very difficult on the Iranian government. They still have the potential to bomb them in a way that they clearly know would be detrimental. They've lost the straight, and they have a blockade for getting any money. So when you put all that together, and one fact that I don't hear people talk enough about, there's pipelines being constructed that every oil person that I've heard forecast will take two to three years to be done, and maybe it's now one and three quarters to two and three quarters, you've heard the same thing, to bypass the strait. Well, means that Iran's losing. At some point, they lose. [00:42:03] S1: Mhmm.
00:42:03 · Jordi Visser
[00:42:03] S3: If this... And we know this is happening because they're bombing the pipes that are still in existence. So if Iran has one time to negotiate, it would seem like now would be the prime time. You've got a disconnect between Vance and Trump. You have the Republicans saying we have to end this war because it cost us this, we have to be ready for the next election. That says to me there's a chance that there can be something done. Let's put it this way. I think there's less chance than we thought of a move higher, and I always do believe that these price moves that are this massive, there's probably more insight into what was going on. So that's my, like, kinda putting the tea leaves together. I don't have a position in it. I don't really care that much. The reason it falls important for Bitcoin, that means that CPI will be negative for the December reading for November, most likely, because November is gonna have a very sharp gas at the pump. Gas at the pump has already fallen from $4.40 to $4.10. The current futures price for unleaded gas, because it takes a while for gas at the pump to fall the same pace as the futures, The futures are equivalent as of this morning of three seventy five. So that would be another 35¢, which would be... Take us from $4.40 to $3.75, which if people do the math, gets you pretty close to a 20% fall. That would mean that headline CPI has a sharp negative number. And like I said, DRAM year over year is turning down, the tariff stuff, we've passed the the peak, and now we're gonna be passed the peak on oil, and the base effects kick in for oil when we get through March of next year, and everything starts to go down where year over year oil is negative. So my whole estimate is that the inflation fears have peaked as well now.
00:43:47 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:43:47] S1: Okay. If that is true, gold, looking at GLD, last five days, up about four, four and a half percent. Last month, it is basically flat and down about point seven. Last six months, it's down 10%. Year to date, gold is down 5%. For the last year, though, it is basically slightly up about 2.3 Mhmm. Percent. But over the last five years, it's up a 120%. So if you basically look over the last five days, it's up kinda post election, but for the last month, it's been flat. How does something like gold play into the macro environment as it's developing, and is it something that you're excited about or something that you kinda just don't care about right now?
00:44:25 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:44:25] S3: So I'm... I put gold. I showed a chart in there of an overlay of gold with Bitcoin this year. And since the liquidity headwind started, which I would say started when when Trump and Israel went into Iran. When that started, that's when the headwind started for real ten year yields. That was when the Fed became more of an issue. The dollar basically stopped going down or having any kind of weakness, and the AI trade was accelerating, taking all the capital. So again, when I say liquidity, I want people to realize the liquidity for crypto... When people invest in the AI trade and when the... They come to the market and go, we're gonna raise a $1,000,000,000,000.5. That has an impact on Bitcoin. That's just US capital. I mean, we've... We saw what the Korean market did. You brought back that you heard that Korea wasn't... Didn't wanna be involved in Bitcoin. Greed will always bring people back in. So I'm excited about the fact that Bitcoin has acted extremely well during this chaos, and I do believe it'll be correlated to gold on the upside. I believe it'll be correlated to any bounce in the AI trade from this point, because I don't think the AI trade is going to collapse from these levels, because now we've taken it to levels where, believe it or not, the PE on Micron is three as of when I came in here. That's crazy. But again, that's the reality of where you have this stuff. I mean, for for NVIDIA, you're getting close to a single digit PE on, you know. [00:45:49] S1: And that doesn't make you excited. That actually tells you, like, cause for concern.
00:45:53 · Jordi Visser
[00:45:53] S3: That tells me about what I was saying, which is the multiple compression. Do I think Micron will ever get to a 10 PE? No. So that's the best way I can say it is you think of a three PE in something in your head that says that's a low number. But the reality is I think all of the PEs are coming down. The only company this year that's seen really multiple expansion that, you know, is a big company is Apple. It's up at, a 40 PE. But what does Apple have that all these other companies don't have? They're actually immune to AI. They don't have an AI business. They haven't... I mean, if you've looked at the CapEx numbers of all of their the mag seven, they're at zero, basically. So, Apple has done well because it's a quality safe company that people have migrated into. It's almost like the hedge against the rest on the way Berkshire is, because Berkshire and Apple are both making Northam High, so is Eli Lilly. So my biggest AI trade is doing well. It's just not big enough to offset the other ones that I have. So I just think that in general, what you're you're going into is you're gonna have a a bouncing gold. Platinum's had a big... Has a reversal week. Silver's done well. Palladium's done well. This isn't just one trade. Bitcoin to me will be correlated. It's part gold at this point. It's part MDX. And when we see a bounce in the AI trade and gold is going higher happen. One more thing that we talked about before, the quarterly refunding announcement happened. And as I highlighted in the crypto video, they tweaked the language. So Bloomberg put out a story, and you have a lot of people saying, okay. Now they can make changes when they want. They did the one little change. Now the reason this is important, they did this language change on August 4 as well. And then two weeks later, on the eighteenth or nineteenth is when they actually made the buyback announcement where they were gonna buy more. They have to do something to change affordability. This is a major issue coming out of the... There's a number one issue, was affordability and distribution of wealth. So I think there's a risk here, again, that the government will get involved to make sure that this long end isn't an issue.