Prof G Markets
00:06:39 · Ed Elson
Given the unusually good timing of some of these transactions, it's highly likely that he and his associates were making bets based on insider information. When officials at the SEC and the CFTC tried to investigate these trades, though, they were immediately ordered to stop and, in some cases, pushed out of their agencies altogether. Corruption does not get more obvious than this. It's not just the brazenness of these scandals, but the sheer number of them. From Kimberly Guilfoyle to Tom Homan to Trump's fucking teleprompter operator, a prerequisite for working with the president appears to be a willingness to lie, to cheat, and to scandalize. It's genuinely disgusting. And as I've said on markets, the only viable remedy is to put these people behind bars. FYI, that is not lawfare. That is just the law. Now the good news is most Americans finally get it. Two thirds now say that Trump is using the office to enrich himself. I won't pretend to know what the other third thinks. My central claim is this. Trump's been so terrible, he's ruined the chances for everyone else. That might sound like a hot take. However, the Democrats' odds of sweeping the Republicans have more than doubled since the beginning of the year. So in reality, it's tepid. Now what would a sweep actually take? Democrats will likely need two wins from Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Troy Jackson in Maine, or James Talarico in Texas. All of them have decent chances. But if you'd said that eight months ago, you'd have gotten laughed out of the room. Things have changed dramatically in a remarkably short period of time. It's not that the Democrats have run great campaigns. It's that the president has run a horrible one. From the Rio Grande to the Great Lakes, Trump has poisoned Republican wells across the nation. Those who drink invariably get sick. The Republicans know this. That's why two thirds of GOP candidates in competitive races are now distancing themselves from the president. The irony is that he thinks he's helping. The Trump a palooza midterm convention was supposed to galvanize candidates ahead of November. Instead, all it gave them was a headache. Never underestimate the democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They've done it before, and they could do it again. That's why I advise democrats to commit to the following political strategy. Do nothing.
00:09:20 · Ed Elson
The Democrats are in an enviable position and that the facts are on their side. Their greatest political advertisement is also getting free coverage twenty four seven, and his name is Donald Trump. The key will be to sit still and let the man continue to self destruct. They don't need a bold agenda. They don't need a hero. In the words of Don Draper, if you don't like what's being said, change the conversation. But now is not that time. Do this, and I'm confident the story of 1890 will repeat itself. A blue wave unlike anything we've seen. Will that fix America's problems? No. At the very least though, it will be a gratifying indictment of what caused them. I'm not one for vengeance, but I do enjoy retribution. My bet is that America does too. This edition of Simply Put was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss, edited by Natalia Cabrera and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our research associate is Dan Chillon. Our design editor is Olivia Riemi Hall. Special thanks to Vivian Zhang, Audrey Hetzelman, and Rohit Bola. Thank you for listening to Simply Put by Ed Elson. You can find this piece and more on Substack. Just go to edwardelson.substack.com.
00:10:41 · S9, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S0, S7, S10, Ed Elson
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00:12:04 · Ed Elson, S10
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