Ed Elson predicts Democrats will sweep next week's midterms, arguing the swing reflects Donald Trump's unpopularity rather than Democratic strength.
Elson argues Trump's tariffs and Iran war alone created today's inflation crisis, with gas up 40 percent and inflation outpacing wages for six straight months.
Elson says Trump personally profited $1.4bn from crypto projects while SEC and CFTC officials who tried to investigate his trades were ordered to stop and pushed out.
Why Trump's own record sets up a Democratic midterm sweep
Ed Elson predicts a Democratic sweep in next week's midterms and argues it will be a verdict on Donald Trump rather than a victory Democrats earned. Tariffs and an eight-month Iran war pushed prices up faster than wages while profits rose, and alleged self-enrichment has deepened the damage. Like Benjamin Harrison's party in 1890, Republicans face punishment for a president's own choices.
Takeaways
A sweep would punish Trump, not reward Democrats. Democrats' odds of sweeping Republicans have more than doubled since January, a call Elson says would have been laughed off eight months ago. He credits Trump's historically low approval, which is lower still on inflation, rather than strong Democratic campaigns.
Tariffs and the Iran war created the inflation. Inflation rose nearly a percentage point within a year of Liberation Day and another point after the Iran war began. Trump ignored that a third of global crude trade passes through Hormuz, and a promised few-week conflict has run eight months.
Workers pay while corporate profits climb. Gas prices are up 40 percent and inflation has outpaced wage growth for six straight months, while corporate profits have risen nearly 40 percent since Trump took office. Elson says this shows trickle-down economics once again does not exist.
Voters blame Trump more than they blamed Biden. Elson calls Biden's COVID-era inflation largely outside his control, while Trump's was self-inflicted. More Americans now disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation than disapproved of Biden's in 2022. Elson calls this arguably the worst presidency in American history.
Self-enrichment has become a defining liability. Trump made $1.4bn from crypto projects in 2025 while Trump coin buyers lost roughly $2bn. He traded up to $1.5bn in stocks with suspicious timing, and SEC and CFTC staff who investigated were stopped or pushed out.
Prosecution is law, not lawfare. Two thirds of Americans say Trump uses the office to enrich himself. Elson cites Kimberly Guilfoyle and Tom Homan as signs that working with Trump requires a willingness to lie and cheat, and says prosecution is the only remedy.
Elson's midterm forecast and advice to Democrats
Republicans are retreating from Trump. Two thirds of Republican candidates in competitive races are distancing themselves, and a Trump midterm convention meant to galvanize them gave them a headache instead.
Democrats should do nothing. They need neither a bold agenda nor a hero, and should let Trump self-destruct while guarding against their habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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A sweep likely requires two key wins. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine have decent chances, as does James Talarico in Texas.
History points the same way. Benjamin Harrison raised import duties to 50 percent, prices jumped, and his closeness to the industrialists funding him drew anger. His party lost 93 seats in 1890, two years after a resounding win.
A blue wave would be a gratifying indictment of what caused America's problems but would not fix them. Elson says he is not one for vengeance but enjoys retribution.