00:58:07 · Eric Jorgenson, Ty Morse
[00:58:07] S1: It's also... It's an interesting like, Starlink part two, where like Starlink is actually an outcome of like, hey, have all this volume. Yeah. We have launch capacity because we've created it. And rather than wait for the market to figure out what to put in it, we'll just start putting up our own stuff. And I I think data centers in space is basically the same thing, for the Starship program. Max Olsen's essay talks about this, like the integration of volume and iteration speed, being integral to kind of [00:58:32] S0: the SpaceX culture, which is just, is a great question and a great essay. Mars is obviously the long term mission for SpaceX and making life multiplanetary. Yeah. But it's very interesting to me to see Elon pivot to we're going to make a moon base in, you know, the short term next few years, and then we will start working on Mars in like eight to ten or longer. Do you think that Mars was basically a useful thing to pursue until they finally got the capacity, like, ability to actually launch things, and then they're like, alright, let's just go target the thing that, you know, is an obvious first step. I I I'm wondering if, you know, Mars was just the useful mission to get people here, And now the realistic thing is like the moon, and he's just going after the realistic thing or the fast thing.
00:59:19 · Eric Jorgenson
[00:59:19] S1: I think it... I think you sort of... You see it with increasing resolution as you get closer to it. And so I think Mars is, you know, as you said, is still the North Star, still the goal, still the ultimate outcome. But I think there was... It probably became more clear that there is a near term, like, high ROI project to do that is also on the same stretch towards Mars. And I think there's... It's gonna... Actually gonna be a really exciting... It's partly probably the AI breakthrough, partly, like, solar technology and capacity is, like, those things are all coming together to make it, another s curve that will make Mars incrementally easier, rather than just, like, pouring cash from, you know, Falcon nine and and Starship into going to Mars. It it is probably just as each incremental leap, that you see with a little more clarity once you get closer to it.
01:00:07 · Ty Morse
[01:00:07] S0: There's a moment in the Walter Isaacson biography where I think around 2020 Tesla, you know, the stock was just absolutely ripping. And at two separate moments, he tweeted like the the stock is too high. And of course, the market reaction was not pleasant about that. Ironically, the first time it just kept on going higher. And he was like, I guess I don't... And then he went on a few podcasts and he was like, don't know. I said it was too high. But then in the Walter Isaacson biography, he recounts the story of basically Elon one night just sat alone in a room and just thought the entire night and then in the morning came out with the conclusion that the only way... Like, this new... The only new business line that would justify the valuation of Tesla, just working backwards, is a full self driving and, like, this massive rope taxi fleet. And then they just kind of went all in on that. I wonder how many times Elon has kind of basically taken some massive thing and then just backfilled how do we actually justify the thing that exists?
01:01:08 · Eric Jorgenson
[01:01:08] S1: Yeah. Like, rat is on hats over and over again. This is, a little bit back to, like, the unreasonableness as part of the magic and, like, the childishness of, like, yeah. No. Let's do the crazy thing. Let's go for it. And, you know, being wrong about whether it comes in three years or five years is, like, less important than whether it comes at all. And, you know, the the sort of goal gradient hypothesis, right, of, like, we're sprinting to a finish line, and we sprint harder the closer it is. And I don't think it's intentional or manipulative, but I do think there's a real thing to, like, feeling like it's two years away. It's like, oh, we're on a sprint. We're on a sprint, and we and we sprint those two years, and we cover a lot of ground, and then we find out, oh, there's maybe there's eighteen more months of work, and maybe there's another year. But, like, that's how something like autonomy... You know, we've made so much progress in autonomy since then. But that was a big part of the vision even from the earliest days of Tesla, I think, or close to it. It was like, there's two big changes coming to automobiles in this era, which is electrification and autonomy, and doing both at a time when the industry itself was not working on it with particular diligence. You know, you set up these huge expectations for Tesla for sure.
01:02:21 · Ty Morse
[01:02:21] S0: I've noticed that with almost every great entrepreneur, they will become more ambitious over time as things start to work. And it's really... There's almost like an s curve. You can think of people's ambition as, like, they will rapidly run up the s curve of how ambitious they actually are. Yeah. And then the best entrepreneurs in the world, you'll just notice that, like, the new, the s curve is almost shrouded in fog. You don't actually know where the where the top out is. And then as you go up, you can see a little further and see a little further and they just become more and more ambitious. With Elon, it seems like there have been different levels of ambition over time. And if you really think about it, he's just basically the most ambitious person, probably, maybe ever. Starting new civilizations on other planets just keeps on getting bigger, keeps on resetting the bar. You know, he just announced the Terafab Mhmm. Or something, and he's like, now we're gonna basically use the entire moon just to launch AI satellites. Kinda nuts. Just using entire planets. The people just don't think this way. How do you think his brain is different?
01:03:25 · Eric Jorgenson
[01:03:25] S1: I don't know if it's different. Like, what does everybody want? Two to three times what they have now. Like, when you survey people, like, what's your net worth goals? Like, I don't know, three x whatever I have. You hear people go to, like, all these seminars. Like, I'm at I'm at $3,000,000 and I wanna be at 10. And Elon Elon says, like, I definitely emboldened over time, and, I think it's one of Senra's maxims, you know, appetite comes with eating. And, you know, I agree with the trend. Right? Like, entrepreneur who succeeds, like, we all strive for more. You wanna build... You know, reach the next triple, the next order of magnitude. Elon just covered more ground than anybody else, and he has... There's no limit to his imagination. And so, like, I think his imaginativeness, I think his unbelievable track record so far, like, he's he's keeps taking chances, and they keep working out. It's like, what are you gonna do but keep taking chances and keep doubling down? And he's able to tackle things. He... He's already said, I didn't ever think I would get a chance to work on the things I'm already working on, let alone what's coming next. But these do... The... I mean, the leverage sort of compounds on itself. And when you have, like, you know, these billions of dollars, these incredible engineers, and the momentum, like, not gonna let up. I'm just gonna... What's next? What's next? What's possible? How do we keep going? Like, I feel like we're so lucky to live in the era where we get to, like, be a part of this happening.