00:56:14 · Eric Jorgenson, Ty Morse
[00:56:14] S1: Mhmm. [00:56:14] S0: There's another thing about creating enemies and chaos and using, you know, the little finger line chaos is a ladder. I really think that Elon has, like, fully embraced that philosophy of basically create chaos and as, you know, things are happening all over the place, just be better at playing the game in real time. If lots of shit is happening and there's too many signals, other people's brains will get fried, whereas he... That's where he's able to lock in. [00:56:39] S1: Yeah. I feel like when he sees the game board clearly from a really zoomed out view, what looks like chaos to people sort of with a narrow view, he can still navigate really cleanly through, because he's moving really fast, and he understands, like, the ultimate goal. And I think if you have those two things, like, the short term stuff that looks like chaos is just kind of noise. [00:56:58] S0: Well, I also think that the fact that he is able to play in that way and he knows that the easiest way to play is where other people are kind of on... You know, if ever... If the ground is changing [00:57:09] S1: Yeah. [00:57:10] S0: Then it's easy to make a make a move that wouldn't be able to be made if the ground wasn't changing. And so it seems like whenever there is like a peacetime moment, he will just inject uncertainty, chaos, action until the ground is moving again.
00:57:10 · Ty Morse, Eric Jorgenson
[00:57:10] S0: Then it's easy to make a make a move that wouldn't be able to be made if the ground wasn't changing. And so it seems like whenever there is like a peacetime moment, he will just inject uncertainty, chaos, action until the ground is moving again. [00:57:25] S1: Well, and his his speed causes Yeah. That chaos. Right? Like, you know, when he launches a new program or a new company, like, his sudden push towards data centers in space really changes the the board of Yes. Who's investing what capital into what different Yeah. [00:57:39] S0: It is. Mean, even unlike the data centers in space thing, he was asked on a podcast how he came up with that idea, and he said it just went viral on Twitter a few months ago. And I'm like, this... But then you look at the valuation of SpaceX from when he comes up with this idea to today, and it's like four x higher. And I'm like this, you know, the first twenty years of SpaceX are just one fourth of an idea that he has in his mind. And then he's going to go, you know, raise a 100,000,000,000 or something in an IPO for.
00:57:39 · Ty Morse, Eric Jorgenson
[00:57:39] S0: It is. Mean, even unlike the data centers in space thing, he was asked on a podcast how he came up with that idea, and he said it just went viral on Twitter a few months ago. And I'm like, this... But then you look at the valuation of SpaceX from when he comes up with this idea to today, and it's like four x higher. And I'm like this, you know, the first twenty years of SpaceX are just one fourth of an idea that he has in his mind. And then he's going to go, you know, raise a 100,000,000,000 or something in an IPO for. [00:58:07] S1: It's also... It's an interesting like, Starlink part two, where like Starlink is actually an outcome of like, hey, have all this volume. Yeah. We have launch capacity because we've created it. And rather than wait for the market to figure out what to put in it, we'll just start putting up our own stuff. And I I think data centers in space is basically the same thing, for the Starship program. Max Olsen's essay talks about this, like the integration of volume and iteration speed, being integral to kind of
00:58:07 · Eric Jorgenson, Ty Morse
[00:58:07] S1: It's also... It's an interesting like, Starlink part two, where like Starlink is actually an outcome of like, hey, have all this volume. Yeah. We have launch capacity because we've created it. And rather than wait for the market to figure out what to put in it, we'll just start putting up our own stuff. And I I think data centers in space is basically the same thing, for the Starship program. Max Olsen's essay talks about this, like the integration of volume and iteration speed, being integral to kind of [00:58:32] S0: the SpaceX culture, which is just, is a great question and a great essay. Mars is obviously the long term mission for SpaceX and making life multiplanetary. Yeah. But it's very interesting to me to see Elon pivot to we're going to make a moon base in, you know, the short term next few years, and then we will start working on Mars in like eight to ten or longer. Do you think that Mars was basically a useful thing to pursue until they finally got the capacity, like, ability to actually launch things, and then they're like, alright, let's just go target the thing that, you know, is an obvious first step. I I I'm wondering if, you know, Mars was just the useful mission to get people here, And now the realistic thing is like the moon, and he's just going after the realistic thing or the fast thing.
00:59:19 · Eric Jorgenson
[00:59:19] S1: I think it... I think you sort of... You see it with increasing resolution as you get closer to it. And so I think Mars is, you know, as you said, is still the North Star, still the goal, still the ultimate outcome. But I think there was... It probably became more clear that there is a near term, like, high ROI project to do that is also on the same stretch towards Mars. And I think there's... It's gonna... Actually gonna be a really exciting... It's partly probably the AI breakthrough, partly, like, solar technology and capacity is, like, those things are all coming together to make it, another s curve that will make Mars incrementally easier, rather than just, like, pouring cash from, you know, Falcon nine and and Starship into going to Mars. It it is probably just as each incremental leap, that you see with a little more clarity once you get closer to it.
01:00:07 · Ty Morse
[01:00:07] S0: There's a moment in the Walter Isaacson biography where I think around 2020 Tesla, you know, the stock was just absolutely ripping. And at two separate moments, he tweeted like the the stock is too high. And of course, the market reaction was not pleasant about that. Ironically, the first time it just kept on going higher. And he was like, I guess I don't... And then he went on a few podcasts and he was like, don't know. I said it was too high. But then in the Walter Isaacson biography, he recounts the story of basically Elon one night just sat alone in a room and just thought the entire night and then in the morning came out with the conclusion that the only way... Like, this new... The only new business line that would justify the valuation of Tesla, just working backwards, is a full self driving and, like, this massive rope taxi fleet. And then they just kind of went all in on that. I wonder how many times Elon has kind of basically taken some massive thing and then just backfilled how do we actually justify the thing that exists?