00:06:23 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Harari
It's great if you're a cancer patient, but it's not so good if you're an investor who's banking on 49% or maybe a beat, maybe an update. Hey, it's actually better than than we expected. And so, you can kind of understand how the market would react to that. Also, the Phase III trial showed that Moderna's treatment is really only starts to be effective after six months, it starts kicking in. So, if you have a really aggressive, fast growing cancer, it doesn't really help all that much. It's more for someone who has like a slow burn cancer that's sort of, they're fighting it off over the course of a year or two. That's when Moderna is going to help. And so...: Yeah. [00:07:02] S0: Somewhat disappointing results. [00:07:04] S1: Relative to the expectations. Right? Just didn't meet expectations. Not not a beat in the clean sense. And so that's all just a normal biotech story. But then it takes a bizarre turn because a fitness and gambling influencer, which is how he's described, named Shane Stouffer, who's better known as Togey, managed to time Moderna's crash almost perfectly. [00:07:31] S4: Nothing. Nothing. [00:07:32] S1: Flipping his entire position from calls to puts just hours before it plunged. And so we have some more information on Togi. I don't know if we have any videos that we wanna pull up to contextualize for the audience who Togi is because he's a true character in the modern online world. Do have any... [00:07:49] S0: I don't know if you could pull up just any video.
00:07:49 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Tyler, Kyle Schiller
[00:07:49] S0: I don't know if you could pull up just any video. [00:07:51] S1: I don't think we could. It's kinda dangerous. He's a he's a real wild card. Do you... [00:07:54] S2: I I sent in a video that I think is... [00:07:57] S1: Okay. Oh, it's clean.... [00:07:58] S2: For him. [00:07:58] S1: Okay. We'll play that video. And while we're pulling it up, give me the update on how you did in your first game of Call of Duty [00:08:03] S2: Modern Warfare for 14. Not great. [00:08:06] S1: 13 and 14. [00:08:07] S0: But, you know, [00:08:07] S2: first game, just getting the feeling. [00:08:09] S1: Okay. Okay. [00:08:10] S2: I'm feeling confident, though. [00:08:11] S0: Oh, We got a...... [00:08:12] S2: Time on this map. [00:08:13] S0: Can we get a camera on Jackson? [00:08:16] S1: Yeah. We need a camera on [00:08:17] S0: Jackson He'd put together [00:08:20] S1: Put together [00:08:20] S0: the fit [00:08:21] S1: all fits. [00:08:22] S2: Of the month. Fit of the month. [00:08:23] S0: And it's only [00:08:24] S1: Spin it around. Where are [00:08:27] S0: we? Here we are. [00:08:29] S1: Here we go. [00:08:29] S0: Alright. Zoom out a little bit. [00:08:31] S1: There we go. [00:08:31] S0: Okay. What do you got on, Jackson? [00:08:33] S5: I got the front Dale. [00:08:36] S1: And the back Dale. [00:08:39] S0: What's on the feet? Do we got boots on the feet? [00:08:41] S1: Okay. [00:08:42] S0: What do we got? [00:08:44] S5: I'm happy to be here. [00:08:45] S0: There we go. [00:08:45] S1: Fantastic. Looking great. [00:08:47] S0: Looking great. Thank you for that.
00:08:47 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Thomas Wright, Joe Lonsdale, Adam
[00:08:47] S0: Looking great. Thank you for that. [00:08:48] S1: So do we have that Togi video to contextualize for everyone? Can we pull that up? Okay. This is Togi, the fitness and gambling concert. [00:08:57] S3: Ever. Like, every day, I probably have, like, six, like, useful thoughts, and then the rest of it's just kind of like [00:09:04] S6: Give me an example of a useful thought you had today. [00:09:07] S7: No. Today was bad. [00:09:12] S1: What an entertainer. Anyway, on October 4, Togey, the man pictured in that video, was trying to speed up his stock video trading challenge, which is already a hilarious premise. He said he noticed people online acting bearish towards Moderna. Everyone was turbo bullish on every stock except $1 sign mRNA. Everyone and their mother could only talk about how overvalued it was and how good of a short it was. Then he decided to go against the crowd and bought Moderna calls. That night, he had a dream. Moderna cured cancer, and the stock went to $275 It's trading around $200 today. It was at almost $2.50 a little bit earlier. Making his portfolio, if these calls had hit, worth $11,000,000 This was his dream. After the dream, he asked Claude what it would take for Moderna to actually reach $275 That's when he said he learned about Moderna's cancer vaccine. Wait, for the first time, he just has this dream based on vibes based analysis. He's vibes trading. Over the next two weeks, the stock went up 25%, and Togi got worried that all the hype from the trial was already priced in. Then he had another dream. [00:10:34] S0: There we This
00:10:34 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:10:34] S0: There we This [00:10:34] S1: time that Moderna stock would surge 22%. I thought is a quote from him. He trust my original swap end of market on Friday plan. But when he woke up and checked his phone, Moderna was tanking, and his position was down nearly $200,000 Quote from Togey, My port down 200 ks almost had me fully in a panic, thinking maybe sell on the news was so obvious that they are selling days before the news. Originally, Togi had planned to flip his entire position from long to short on Friday, October 23, betting that Moderna's stock would crash after the trial results were released on Saturday, but the sudden drop convinced him to move up his plans. Quote, I got too scared that the pump would happen so soon that I'd have no capital left to flip the port short come Friday. But so he sold his position at a loss, freeing up roughly $500,000 to bet against Moderna by buying put options ahead of the trial results. Perfect timing for Togi. Shortly after, the results were leaked and the stock crashed by 26%, in Togi's own words, and the rest is some giga stroke of luck history. The news broke early somehow? Question mark. Question mark. Question mark. Question mark. The most likely outcome for all traders would be that I was destined for. Rock solid thesis blown up by some unlucky BS. [00:12:03] S0: Excuses. That's my quant. Lucky. Giga stroke of luck.
00:12:03 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Tyler
[00:12:03] S0: Excuses. That's my quant. Lucky. Giga stroke of luck. [00:12:07] S1: Giga stroke of luck. Lucky my panic this morning got to my head enough to break my original game plan. In hindsight, this entire saga was beyond obvious. Thanks for playing. Not financial advice. I'm just learning [00:12:21] S0: Guy has two dreams and a giga stroke of luck and says, in the end, this was all beyond obvious. [00:12:28] S1: All beyond obvious, but also not financial advice. I'm just learning and gambling, but also put some respect on the thesis. S U M for some. So I don't know. [00:12:40] S0: The thesis that started before he was aware of what the entire stock was riding on. [00:12:46] S1: It's it's, yeah, it's a very, funny story. Anyway, Moderna is all over the place. Well, let me tell you about console.com. Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. How is Tyler doing this round? [00:13:06] S2: Well, so it's Nick playing now. [00:13:07] S1: Oh, Nick playing. Playing swap? Let's see. So the the score to beat is even. If if... Slightly negative. [00:13:14] S2: If Nick... If he can go even. [00:13:15] S1: Yeah. Okay. Okay. I don't know if I played this map in the in the beta. [00:13:20] S0: You look like you're about to pull up a [00:13:22] S1: Pretty good. [00:13:22] S0: A shot from deep.
00:13:22 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:13:22] S0: A shot from deep. [00:13:24] S1: Is he leaning in yet? Stance forward for Modern Warfare four? This is exciting. And somebody in the chat also said it's only twenty six days until GTA six. It's... Christmas is coming early for the next sixty [00:13:40] S0: Alright. Two days. It together. [00:13:41] S1: Get it together. Okay. Well, over in the management section of Wall Street Journal. [00:13:46] S0: Well, let's do some timeline first. [00:13:47] S1: Okay. Yeah. [00:13:47] S0: Let's [00:13:48] S1: start the timeline. [00:13:48] S0: For sure. President Trump says Sundar over at Google talked him out of renaming the Atlantic Ocean. Okay. Says, and I spoke to a brilliant guy Sundar. He heads all of Google. He's a brilliant guy. [00:14:00] S1: Okay. [00:14:01] S0: Sergei and Sundar are totally brilliant guys. You know they're they're still rattled from The Gulf. And I said, no, Sundar, I'm thinking of the Atlantic Ocean. Can you handle it? No. No. No. This time I'm not doing it, he said. He said, oceans are different, sir. You know, they cover they cover really a lot of countries. Please don't ask us to do that. [00:14:20] S1: That's the craziest thing. So it'd be the American Ocean? Is that the idea? [00:14:27] S0: I think you would have to assume so. [00:14:30] S1: Or Trump Ocean? Maybe Mar A Lago, the ocean? I don't know. [00:14:37] S0: Could see all of these.