00:20:31 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:20:31] S1: There was a pronuclear side of the Sierra Club. [00:20:33] S0: Pronuclear. Yeah, very pronuclear, and it was divided on this around the time of Ansel Adams taking photos for the Sierra Club. I remember this as actually being something that let him, let it create some huge rift. And the argument was basically, you know, we can try and have less energy consumption as a society and that might be the best thing for the environment, but it seems unlikely. And therefore the alternative is more coal, you know other things we're doing. Maybe solar can work, maybe wind can work. Yeah. But those are actually visually and in terms of like acreage more impactful to the environment. And so nuclear may be actually the most environmental source of energy if you think we're going to consume it. And so that was a big internal argument even amongst the environmental movement around that time. [00:21:19] S1: I hadn't realized that there was rift there, but ultimately, one side, one out. Yep. That's mostly sad. But where I was going was it feels like we are now getting to a better spot where, at least amongst the youth, I mean, opinions are very striated by age, but younger people are much more likely to be pro nuclear. So do think we're we're getting to a better spot generally in terms of public perception?
00:21:19 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:21:19] S1: I hadn't realized that there was rift there, but ultimately, one side, one out. Yep. That's mostly sad. But where I was going was it feels like we are now getting to a better spot where, at least amongst the youth, I mean, opinions are very striated by age, but younger people are much more likely to be pro nuclear. So do think we're we're getting to a better spot generally in terms of public perception? [00:21:44] S0: Yeah. I think we are. I think we are. And you look at, you know, not just age demographics, but also just politically. Mhmm. Ten years ago nuclear was much less popular in general and also it was a political issue. Mhmm. Now it's got bipartisan support. You look at you know the Biden administration went into triple nuclear production in The US by 2050. The Trump administration wants to quadruple it. So there's good alignment politically around nuclear now and I think it's because people who historically would have been very you know concerned more with environmental are realizing it's it's the cleanest lowest CO2 emission source and it's actually extremely safe. [00:22:23] S1: Yes. So who do you sell to? Like, who are your customers or prospective customers? I know you probably can't pick favorites, but what are a few of the most exciting approaches that you see amongst the startups? [00:22:37] S0: So if we're talking about specifics, let's just go smallest to biggest in no particular order. [00:22:42] S1: You're so diplomatic.
00:22:42 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:22:42] S1: You're so diplomatic. [00:22:44] S0: Smallest Finish your goodness. Would be like Antares. That's gonna be more for forward deployed military space, things like that. [00:22:52] S1: Yep. [00:22:54] S0: They have an incredible business, you know, in that market. Next size up would be Radiant, one megawatt. Very good reactor design, containerized for remote applications primarily and base resilience. Great business there. Then you start getting up into the SMR size and so you have people like Aalo or Valar or even Oklo. Then you go bigger. So that would be serving the data center market primarily. That's probably the first applications there and the ones that are most urgent. And then you go larger than that and you're looking at you know, Oklo X Energy TerraPower. Larger format that can really compete on the grid in the near term. And so not all of these are using HALEU today. Some might use Lower Enriched or LEU Plus, six to 10%. [00:23:44] S1: Because of them could. It's like putting a 100 octane in your car. I mean, guys can take it. [00:23:49] S0: I don't think all of them can. So if you go big enough, if... Are all the advanced ones. I think none that I named. I'm not aware of any limitations of any that I named. I think all of those can run HALEU. [00:24:00] S1: Okay.
00:24:00 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:24:00] S1: Okay. [00:24:00] S0: At some point. Some are choosing to run LEU or LEU plus today because that's what's available. Yep. If you go bigger on the grid today those large reactors those gigawatt scale AP1000s, the Westinghouse design that cannot run HALEU, but they are looking at operating and running like LEU plus. [00:24:19] S1: Got [00:24:19] S0: it. And again going back to what we were talking about before, you increase the enrichment level and you don't have to refuel as often or you can get a little bit more power out of it. Yep. So that's that's kind of the landscape. Yeah yeah. Think large format light water reactors really the ones people associate with Homer Simpson. [00:24:37] S1: Yes. [00:24:38] S0: That's low enriched uranium and then everything else that's happening generally trends towards a higher enrichment level just under 20% halo. [00:24:47] S1: Is relevant to submarines in all the non power plant? [00:24:52] S0: No. Submarines care even more about refueling cycles. So when you refuel a submarine, have to cut it open and remove the reactor. So as infrequent as possible is ideal there. Got it. And they'll run north of 90% enrichment. [00:25:05] S1: Okay. Which is, again, getting into a different regulatory regime. Like, you cannot as a civilian company [00:25:10] S0: produce Completely different, and that's why all of the new SMRs, all the advanced reactor designs, specifically choose HALEU. Uh-huh. 19.75% just under 20, which is the cutoff for different regulation internationally and domestically.
00:25:10 · Scott Nolan, John Collison
[00:25:10] S0: produce Completely different, and that's why all of the new SMRs, all the advanced reactor designs, specifically choose HALEU. Uh-huh. 19.75% just under 20, which is the cutoff for different regulation internationally and domestically. [00:25:24] S1: I see. 20% is the cutoff because beyond that, you're getting [00:25:28] S0: You're getting close. Too close. [00:25:29] S1: Yeah. Okay. That makes sense. Where are you guys in the development of the company? Like, we're talking a lot about the market. Yep. But how many people? Where... Like, do you have a bunch of uranium sitting in a warehouse somewhere? When do you enrich it? Just describe to me where you are on [00:25:44] S0: the journey. Yeah. So big picture, we started end of twenty twenty three. Today here we are almost three years later. The team is just over 200 people scaling pretty quickly. We have facilities in LA as headquarters in engineering. The facility that we're building is in Paducah, Kentucky so Western Kentucky and everything we're doing at the company is aimed towards bringing that online by the end of the decade. So that means licensing. We just submitted our NRC license last week. It means all engineering efforts. It means manufacturing, construction. Pretty much every piece of this is targeting that end of decade timeline. [00:26:32] S1: So you're delivering enriched uranium by the end of the [00:26:36] S0: Yes. [00:26:36] S1: The decade?
00:26:36 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:26:36] S1: The decade? [00:26:37] S0: Yeah. And on the commercial side, all of our contracts are lined up against that date because we know that's when both, like, the ban on Russian uranium imports starts 01/01/2028. Utilities do have some inventory, they do have some other contracts that can see them through for a little bit, but we want to be online as soon as we can after that to help plug that gap which is about a quarter of U. S. Demand. And then all of the advanced reactors are are more or less targeting first deployments in 2829 commercially and then scaling up from there. So that's about the right time to be online for the market, and it's about as fast as we can go. [00:27:13] S1: You worked at SpaceX. Elon's companies have this green lights to Malibu concept with planning. The idea is, as I understand it, that it costs you time to plan kind of conservatively a timeline that you can hit because you're building in buffers Mhmm. Into the schedule. And instead, you should plan based on a green lights to Malibu. You know, what if all the traffic lights were green basis? Curious what you think of this phenomenon... This, you know, idea generally. But then, two, is this end of the decade a Elon style green lights to Malibu, we'll have FSD next year type timeline? Or is it a timeline you guys are actually gonna hit? [00:27:49] S0: This is one we'll actually hit. So that's our external timeline. This is, you know I see. We're speaking publicly. So you [00:27:54] S1: have secret internal timeline as well?