00:17:10 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:17:10] S1: Because, yeah, the classical story of what happened is this very accident based muse of things like 3 Mile Island and Chernobyl, and you basically reject that as an explanation where you don't think it was that we saw these near misses and accidents and things and said, screw that. We're going to get much... You know, we're gonna strangulate nuclear and overregulate and everything like that. You think it was much more of a WTF happened in 1971 type story where we lost the ability to build large infrastructure projects generally, and nuclear plants are an example of a large infrastructure project? [00:17:51] S0: Yeah, and maybe the safety concerns put a slight pause on it, but I think that that is often blamed as the only thing. And maybe that was, you know kicked off this cycle to some extent but I think it was probably inevitable anyway when your product is not cost competitive. So, think fundamentally that's the thing in nuclear. It's the cleanest baseload, the safest baseload, not the cheapest baseload. So, you have to be the cheapest. I also think people in general if presented with you know here's a new technology would you like this to power your grid? You've maybe heard some safety issues with it that are probably confusing of which side to believe. And then also your energy won't be cheaper. And so if we're talking about being in nineteen seventies nineteen eighties when global warming was not really a topic and emissions wasn't as front and [00:18:40] S1: center. Mhmm.
00:18:40 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:18:40] S1: center. Mhmm. [00:18:41] S0: Why would you say yes to I want a more expensive electricity bill? Yes. So I think that that put us here. I think the way it gets solved is building more. I think I think the other side of it if we wanna talk about the cost structure thing in terms of being overdetermined you have to ask yourself why did the cost get high, why wasn't there more downward pressure on them and I think there just wasn't a strong enough incentive in the ecosystem to push prices down. You had utilities that are more like cost plus organizations and they're generally going to outsource the construction of the facility. And so you end up with this dynamic that was in some ways similar to the launch industry of no very strong economic pressure to reduce price. It just stopped being a [00:19:26] S1: market and started to become a place where people rent extract in all their local corners and... [00:19:31] S0: Maybe not intentionally. Yeah. But I think absent a strong pressure to keep prices low and push them down and compete them down Yes. I think in a lot of industries that happens. And it happened in space launch as well.
00:19:31 · Scott Nolan, John Collison
[00:19:31] S0: Maybe not intentionally. Yeah. But I think absent a strong pressure to keep prices low and push them down and compete them down Yes. I think in a lot of industries that happens. And it happened in space launch as well. [00:19:42] S1: I mean, it feels like in general, the nuclear mood is this very interesting story of extremes where there was crazy unbridled optimism early on. Like, remember the radium watches for, you know, people are making watches with radium two twenty six for the light glow in the dark dials and this energy too cheap to meter and the Jetsons future. Like, it was really ebullient in its optimism. And then there was this crazy pessimism where, you know, nuclear became the kind of public enemy number one and, you know, the enemy of environmentalists, which is kind of ironic given you're saying it is kind of probably the safest and lowest carbon format. [00:20:27] S0: And it was actually a big debate with the Sierra Club, actually, internally. Was about half of the Sierra Club... [00:20:31] S1: There was a pronuclear side of the Sierra Club.
00:20:31 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:20:31] S1: There was a pronuclear side of the Sierra Club. [00:20:33] S0: Pronuclear. Yeah, very pronuclear, and it was divided on this around the time of Ansel Adams taking photos for the Sierra Club. I remember this as actually being something that let him, let it create some huge rift. And the argument was basically, you know, we can try and have less energy consumption as a society and that might be the best thing for the environment, but it seems unlikely. And therefore the alternative is more coal, you know other things we're doing. Maybe solar can work, maybe wind can work. Yeah. But those are actually visually and in terms of like acreage more impactful to the environment. And so nuclear may be actually the most environmental source of energy if you think we're going to consume it. And so that was a big internal argument even amongst the environmental movement around that time. [00:21:19] S1: I hadn't realized that there was rift there, but ultimately, one side, one out. Yep. That's mostly sad. But where I was going was it feels like we are now getting to a better spot where, at least amongst the youth, I mean, opinions are very striated by age, but younger people are much more likely to be pro nuclear. So do think we're we're getting to a better spot generally in terms of public perception?
00:21:19 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:21:19] S1: I hadn't realized that there was rift there, but ultimately, one side, one out. Yep. That's mostly sad. But where I was going was it feels like we are now getting to a better spot where, at least amongst the youth, I mean, opinions are very striated by age, but younger people are much more likely to be pro nuclear. So do think we're we're getting to a better spot generally in terms of public perception? [00:21:44] S0: Yeah. I think we are. I think we are. And you look at, you know, not just age demographics, but also just politically. Mhmm. Ten years ago nuclear was much less popular in general and also it was a political issue. Mhmm. Now it's got bipartisan support. You look at you know the Biden administration went into triple nuclear production in The US by 2050. The Trump administration wants to quadruple it. So there's good alignment politically around nuclear now and I think it's because people who historically would have been very you know concerned more with environmental are realizing it's it's the cleanest lowest CO2 emission source and it's actually extremely safe. [00:22:23] S1: Yes. So who do you sell to? Like, who are your customers or prospective customers? I know you probably can't pick favorites, but what are a few of the most exciting approaches that you see amongst the startups? [00:22:37] S0: So if we're talking about specifics, let's just go smallest to biggest in no particular order. [00:22:42] S1: You're so diplomatic.
00:22:42 · John Collison, Scott Nolan
[00:22:42] S1: You're so diplomatic. [00:22:44] S0: Smallest Finish your goodness. Would be like Antares. That's gonna be more for forward deployed military space, things like that. [00:22:52] S1: Yep. [00:22:54] S0: They have an incredible business, you know, in that market. Next size up would be Radiant, one megawatt. Very good reactor design, containerized for remote applications primarily and base resilience. Great business there. Then you start getting up into the SMR size and so you have people like Aalo or Valar or even Oklo. Then you go bigger. So that would be serving the data center market primarily. That's probably the first applications there and the ones that are most urgent. And then you go larger than that and you're looking at you know, Oklo X Energy TerraPower. Larger format that can really compete on the grid in the near term. And so not all of these are using HALEU today. Some might use Lower Enriched or LEU Plus, six to 10%. [00:23:44] S1: Because of them could. It's like putting a 100 octane in your car. I mean, guys can take it. [00:23:49] S0: I don't think all of them can. So if you go big enough, if... Are all the advanced ones. I think none that I named. I'm not aware of any limitations of any that I named. I think all of those can run HALEU. [00:24:00] S1: Okay.