00:21:01 · Scott Galloway
[00:21:01] S0: I think it's already been priced in. And I think if you look at the markets... So first off, the polls. Like, may... In Maine, it it... The polls don't seem to matter, so we don't know what's gonna happen in Maine. But in places like South Carolina that I think the last Republican or the last Democrat that they sent to Washington resigned in 2002, but darling Graham is now at 78%. And what is her name? Her name is... Oh, Annie Andrews is now at 28%. She was at 10% just a couple months ago, and she's gaining right now. So sweep is the base case. Right? So the most exposed to getting hurt are probably pharma with undisclosed pricing deals with the White House. The company has assigned administration pricing agreements, and house Democrats have floated the idea if they have the power of... If they now run these committees of subpoenaing drug makers for the terms of those deals, I think it's gonna hurt the oil majors. Democrats are trying... Are tying high energy prices to broader cost pressures and plan oversight of corporate pricing and market concentration. I think it's... Oil's gonna come down, which is gonna hurt them more. And there's already investigations over energy exploration in Venezuela, which matters most for a company like Chevron. I think defense contractors get hurt. Maybe the AI tech and data center build out, there'll probably be more pauses, if you will. Private equity and single family rent rental owners, the private equity is probably gonna face more scrutiny. And companies close to the administration, ongoing Democratic investigations and some of his cronies that he's been carving up TikTok and giving giving to drug pricing deals, tariff refunds. You know, a senate majority adds a second chamber issuing subpoenas. Some of the beneficiaries, the tariff exposed retailers, if we roll back the tariffs and there's more certainty around the tariffs going away or being reduced, folks like Walmart, Target, Nike, Best Buy, I think, actually benefited the Democrats' sweep. And then ACA marketplace insurers like Centene, Oscar, Molina, making health subsidies permanent would just be good for those guys. So some winners and some losers. I just... The question is, has it already been priced in?
00:23:35 · Ed Elson
[00:23:35] S4: I think sports betting companies are also very worried about this. And the number that I have to back that up is the fact that they spent $72,000,000 on this midterm election cycle. DraftKings spent 34,000,000. FanDuel spent 27,000,000. You have to just think that these guys are desperate for the Democrats not to get in there and start regulating this gambling stuff.
00:23:59 · Scott Galloway, Ed Elson
[00:23:59] S0: But the keyword there is spend. What's so staggering about this race, obviously, the outcome is gonna be the most interesting thing. But post election, I think what we're really gonna... There's gonna be a couple of big stories, but one of them is gonna be that we have now spent more on the senate race, this off cycle midterm senate race, than we've spent on the presidential election in terms of money spent. So this isn't even a tail wagging the dog. This is a tail that's wagging the dog so furiously. It's got its own weather system. I mean... And and when you think about just how insane it is, I think about $800,000,000 is gonna go into the senate race in Texas. $800,000,000, and 330 of it or 370 of it is coming from one man. And I think, you know, generally speaking, I think November 4 marks a lot of things. It marks a lame duck president, but I also think it kicks off a new era in America where we spent the last forty years talking about how do you get wealthy, and we're gonna spend the next ten years with a lot more discussion around what are the obligations of wealth. And when one man... And and you know numbers, but you can't really grasp the numbers. So Elon Musk has put, call it, $400,000,000 into the Texas race. [00:25:11] S4: $3,663.66. Is the number.
00:25:11 · Ed Elson, Scott Galloway
[00:25:11] S4: $3,663.66. Is the number. [00:25:13] S0: I would even think at some point, the Supreme Court is gonna go, Jesus, this is out of control. We have to do something about this. By the way, when you're with Caddie Kay and the mooch, my guess is that'll be topics one, two, and three is campaign finance reform. That is, I was with senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, I asked him what is the first thing he would do if elected president, and a lot of them are saying that the number one issue is campaign finance reform.
00:25:13 · Scott Galloway, Ed Elson
[00:25:13] S0: I would even think at some point, the Supreme Court is gonna go, Jesus, this is out of control. We have to do something about this. By the way, when you're with Caddie Kay and the mooch, my guess is that'll be topics one, two, and three is campaign finance reform. That is, I was with senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, I asked him what is the first thing he would do if elected president, and a lot of them are saying that the number one issue is campaign finance reform. [00:25:37] S4: It's ridiculous. $366,000,000. He has now spent... Elon has now spent more on this cycle than George Soros has spent his entire life. So it's gotten completely out of control. And and you mentioned, like, the next... I mean, we talked a lot about how to build wealth and and and the next sort of era of politics and and policy is gonna be about how how to keep it if you're already a billionaire. I mean, one of the big things to to watch out for in this election will be prop 40 in California. And talk about spending a lot of money on politics. Sergey Brin has spent a $102,000,000 to fight prop 40, which is the wealth tax. So, I mean, this this... These midterms are weirdly important on so many different levels, and you you can see it in the amounts that people are spending, especially the amounts that billionaires are spending. They are very, very worried about how, how this election might turn out. We'll be right back after the break. And if you're enjoying the show, send it to a friend, and please follow us on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
00:27:03 · Scott Galloway
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