00:17:34 · Ed Elson
[00:17:34] S4: I mean, just looking at some of these states and and how their economies have been specifically affected, Like, I think Maine is probably the most interesting because you would have expected and the prediction markets did expect that that it would it would be red. But you've got Troy Jackson, the senate candidate, who's democrat at 61% right now on Kalshi. And you just look at the way Maine's economy works and what its strengths are and what its weaknesses are, and it'll... It all makes sense. Like, for for one, they rely on heating oil to heat up their homes more than any other state. It's like 50% of their homes is fuel oil, heating oil. And the cost of that has gone up 83% in the past year. So you're immediately... That's that's half of of the state is watching their energy prices just explode as a result, a direct result of Trump's policies. Then you have the Canada tariffs as well, which is also an issue because Maine sends 40% of its exports to Canada. And so as soon as the Canada trade war breaks out, suddenly you're putting a huge dampener on Maine's economy. Plus, they also have this giant logging industry, which is a huge part of their economy. And then Trump puts 50% tariffs on all of the logging equipment and all of the wood products, which just decimates, the foresting industry in Maine. Like, it's a perfect encapsulation of this is a state that wants to love Trump, that wants to like him, that that identifies with the ethos and the culture of the Republican Party. But he alone has been so economically devastating to to to thousands of people across the state to the point where... I don't know. I mean, I don't know if they're gonna swing blue, but they're probably not gonna show up. They're probably not gonna show up to the polls. I mean, if they're if they're gonna say anything about how gigantic of a disaster the past two years have been in their own lives, this is their moment to say it. So I I do think that that is gonna be like... And I think the same... We see very similar dynamics in Wisconsin, Texas, Iowa, where, as you say, you know, one in five, Iowans is employed by the agriculture industry, which has also gotten hit really, really hard by the increasing oil prices. So it just doesn't look good for the Republicans in any of these key swing states.
00:19:58 · Ed Elson
I think the next question is, like, what are the market implications of various outcomes? Like, if the Democrats sweep, what happens? I think the first two things that we have been seeing already in the markets is that health care stocks could rise because you might see that a lot of these Medicaid cuts will be reversed. But, again, that's already seemingly getting priced in right now because the health care sector is up more than 9% over the past three months. Defense stocks as well could fall. Again, that also happened over the summer. Maybe you see a rise in clean energy stocks. Maybe there is a slowdown in the AI boom. Maybe it could be the Democrats are gonna get a bit more stringent on data centers. That could be one of the directions they go. So I think those are some of the things that we might see. But, again, the fact that we're already beginning to see it in the stock market is indication further that investors really believe that come Tuesday, democrats are gonna win this thing. What do you think?
00:21:01 · Scott Galloway
[00:21:01] S0: I think it's already been priced in. And I think if you look at the markets... So first off, the polls. Like, may... In Maine, it it... The polls don't seem to matter, so we don't know what's gonna happen in Maine. But in places like South Carolina that I think the last Republican or the last Democrat that they sent to Washington resigned in 2002, but darling Graham is now at 78%. And what is her name? Her name is... Oh, Annie Andrews is now at 28%. She was at 10% just a couple months ago, and she's gaining right now. So sweep is the base case. Right? So the most exposed to getting hurt are probably pharma with undisclosed pricing deals with the White House. The company has assigned administration pricing agreements, and house Democrats have floated the idea if they have the power of... If they now run these committees of subpoenaing drug makers for the terms of those deals, I think it's gonna hurt the oil majors. Democrats are trying... Are tying high energy prices to broader cost pressures and plan oversight of corporate pricing and market concentration. I think it's... Oil's gonna come down, which is gonna hurt them more. And there's already investigations over energy exploration in Venezuela, which matters most for a company like Chevron. I think defense contractors get hurt. Maybe the AI tech and data center build out, there'll probably be more pauses, if you will. Private equity and single family rent rental owners, the private equity is probably gonna face more scrutiny. And companies close to the administration, ongoing Democratic investigations and some of his cronies that he's been carving up TikTok and giving giving to drug pricing deals, tariff refunds. You know, a senate majority adds a second chamber issuing subpoenas. Some of the beneficiaries, the tariff exposed retailers, if we roll back the tariffs and there's more certainty around the tariffs going away or being reduced, folks like Walmart, Target, Nike, Best Buy, I think, actually benefited the Democrats' sweep. And then ACA marketplace insurers like Centene, Oscar, Molina, making health subsidies permanent would just be good for those guys. So some winners and some losers. I just... The question is, has it already been priced in?
00:23:35 · Ed Elson
[00:23:35] S4: I think sports betting companies are also very worried about this. And the number that I have to back that up is the fact that they spent $72,000,000 on this midterm election cycle. DraftKings spent 34,000,000. FanDuel spent 27,000,000. You have to just think that these guys are desperate for the Democrats not to get in there and start regulating this gambling stuff.
00:23:59 · Scott Galloway, Ed Elson
[00:23:59] S0: But the keyword there is spend. What's so staggering about this race, obviously, the outcome is gonna be the most interesting thing. But post election, I think what we're really gonna... There's gonna be a couple of big stories, but one of them is gonna be that we have now spent more on the senate race, this off cycle midterm senate race, than we've spent on the presidential election in terms of money spent. So this isn't even a tail wagging the dog. This is a tail that's wagging the dog so furiously. It's got its own weather system. I mean... And and when you think about just how insane it is, I think about $800,000,000 is gonna go into the senate race in Texas. $800,000,000, and 330 of it or 370 of it is coming from one man. And I think, you know, generally speaking, I think November 4 marks a lot of things. It marks a lame duck president, but I also think it kicks off a new era in America where we spent the last forty years talking about how do you get wealthy, and we're gonna spend the next ten years with a lot more discussion around what are the obligations of wealth. And when one man... And and you know numbers, but you can't really grasp the numbers. So Elon Musk has put, call it, $400,000,000 into the Texas race. [00:25:11] S4: $3,663.66. Is the number.
00:25:11 · Ed Elson, Scott Galloway
[00:25:11] S4: $3,663.66. Is the number. [00:25:13] S0: I would even think at some point, the Supreme Court is gonna go, Jesus, this is out of control. We have to do something about this. By the way, when you're with Caddie Kay and the mooch, my guess is that'll be topics one, two, and three is campaign finance reform. That is, I was with senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, I asked him what is the first thing he would do if elected president, and a lot of them are saying that the number one issue is campaign finance reform.