00:58:41 · Ryan Serhant, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:58:41] S3: Arizona. Our market in Arizona, we operate throughout Phoenix. Scottsdale is the strongest I've ever ever ever seen it. The the the mountains of North Carolina and South Carolina are incredibly strong. Obviously, a significant amount of Florida, but it's wild. Like, we're we're working with people who are under the age of 35, who have a one bedroom rental that they've been in for a long, long, long time, and their budget for their first time home purchase is somewhere between 30 and $40,000,000. And you're having you're having life conversations with these clients more than you're having purchase conversations. It used to be when I had somebody like that. I'm dealing with the... A king or queen of the universe. Sure. And this is their empteenth purchase. Yep. But now we're having conversations about what it means to be a first time home buyer. Your your budget's $35,000,000. You still have to pay utilities. You're still gonna have to get your Internet. You know, we're gonna figure things out as we go. And a lot of people are... They're just... They're scared. They're waiting. The sellers, on the other hand, Anthropic took 330 Hudson over here as their New York space. OpenAI is in market for even more space right now. Every other company. So every seller is saying, let's wait. Let's just wait. I'm not reducing my price. [00:59:52] S1: I want the IPOs. [00:59:53] S2: I'm gonna I'm gonna hold
00:59:53 · Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant, John Coogan
[00:59:53] S2: I'm gonna I'm gonna hold [00:59:53] S3: out because that money is coming right to my apartment. Like, are you sure? Yeah. Yeah. Have you talked to anybody there? I was I was here when Uber went public years and years and years ago, and everyone was waiting on those initial, you know Oh, that's [01:00:05] S2: in that's in the New York market specifically. Every... That was everywhere. It was everywhere. And some of the places you listed, I'm so I'm so surprised. So you said Nevada, Arizona, The Carolinas Yep. Wyoming. What they're gonna do is they're buy anyone... I I don't know anyone in San Francisco that's like, the second I get this liquidity, I'm [01:00:23] S3: going But to but but But they're also buying their parents' homes [01:00:27] S1: Sure. [01:00:27] S3: Buying their mortgage down. Yeah. And so you're gonna see a a lot of prepayments. [01:00:31] S1: Sure. [01:00:31] S3: Yeah. So you see a lot of that. You see a lot of student debt being paid down. You see a lot of investment. Yeah. Yeah. You know, they have their house. What are they gonna do with a 100,000 square foot palace? Wait. [01:00:42] S1: Go go back to Uber really quickly. Like, what was the expectation? What... How did it actually plan? [01:00:46] S3: The expectation was that a significant amount of liquidity after the lockup period was ended was going to move not even just into New York, but between Bay Area and here right into property. But a lot of those people were buying on loans based on RSUs anyway. [01:00:59] S1: Oh, so they're already in market.
01:00:59 · John Coogan, Ryan Serhant
[01:00:59] S1: Oh, so they're already in market. [01:01:00] S3: Yeah. Uber pre IPO had a stock buyback program for their employees for like two years. Yeah. You know, they were paying them hundreds of thousand dollars a month just [01:01:09] S1: to then also buy back the private banks are happy to agree to mortgage against our [01:01:13] S3: good old fashioned Silicon Valley Bank. Old school Old school banks were saying, hey, we'll we'll lend. We'll give you 50%, you know, loan to value against your RSUs as long as you can get sign off. Yeah. [01:01:26] S1: And a lot of companies are happy with that because, like, it's no cash cost to them, but their employees are happier and have bigger [01:01:31] S3: It's not gonna be a trickle down, though. It's going to be a mass influx into the luxury marketplace. Yeah. And we've seen it happen Sure. In every penthouse, every major townhouse Yeah. A lot of these exits between New York, especially Florida, and up and down the coast in California. Yeah. And then some international money too. We've been doing more referral deals to Paris, to Portugal. We've... We're... We've we've done... I've done more ranch land grabs across the West. Montana, Wyoming, Utah, have been big big markets. Crazy. Learning so much.
01:01:31 · Ryan Serhant, Jordi Hays, Joe Weisenthal
[01:01:31] S3: It's not gonna be a trickle down, though. It's going to be a mass influx into the luxury marketplace. Yeah. And we've seen it happen Sure. In every penthouse, every major townhouse Yeah. A lot of these exits between New York, especially Florida, and up and down the coast in California. Yeah. And then some international money too. We've been doing more referral deals to Paris, to Portugal. We've... We're... We've we've done... I've done more ranch land grabs across the West. Montana, Wyoming, Utah, have been big big markets. Crazy. Learning so much. [01:02:04] S2: I'm assuming you don't spend too much time thinking about this because you have a lot of stuff to do in the present. But how much do you speculate or think about long term impact of self driving? Oh, I think about a lot. VTOL. Like, I I think about all these areas where... And then and then also, like, technology impact on just, the building process. Like, I was talking to a city council candidate last week, and he was like... One of his big things is, you should be able to submit your plans to the city's website and instantly understand if you're if you're violating codes or not. Yep. So there... So to to speed up. And I I thought that was cool that he at least, like, believes that there's [01:02:40] S0: a You'll
01:02:40 · Joe Weisenthal, Ryan Serhant, Jordi Hays
[01:02:40] S0: a You'll [01:02:40] S3: have it. Yeah. These are... There is there is though a balance. Like, the process of submitting permits and plans to build in most American cities is incredibly painful and is built on systems that were created somewhere between thirty and forty years ago for the most part. That said, they also have to think about quality of life. So, if you do really speed up permitting, you do really, really speed up construction and you do let everyone build who wants to build. Do you know what it would be like to live in most of these cities? Yeah. And then what is the inventory gonna look like if everyone hits market? Sure. It's interesting about a market like Canada. Oh, I have You go to Toronto. [01:03:18] S2: I have this moment, like a a neighbor, like like [01:03:21] S3: If everyone's ever construction, you're like, slow down permanent. [01:03:24] S2: Had a neighbor acres over doing, like, landscaping on Halloween. Yeah. And it was like, you had a tractor going around. I'm like... I'm like... Dominant.
01:03:24 · Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant
[01:03:24] S2: Had a neighbor acres over doing, like, landscaping on Halloween. Yeah. And it was like, you had a tractor going around. I'm like... I'm like... Dominant. [01:03:38] S3: Think about I think about Waymo and self driving and and cybercabs. It feels like A lot for first time I went to fine. This was a couple years ago, I was, at a meeting, in San Francisco, and I saw one of those dystopian parking lots of all the Waymo cars talking to each other moving around. It's like, what happens to real estate when the commute is no longer? If the commute... Kinda like it is today with a Tesla and self driving, if a commute is just a Zoom meeting. And if you can match it with good education, because education will be an issue. Mhmm. You know, you can go and buy an amazing house three hours outside New York City, elsewhere, but if there's no if there's no restaurants, if there's no schools, if there's nothing to do there, you pay the premium to be in better location. [01:04:21] S2: Commute pretty far. I've done it with a driver for most of last year. I have now Tesla self driving. Yeah. A commute is still a commute. It's okay. It's still time. It still like You're not working out. Still like ten hours a week that I'm not Yep. Doing, like you're unproductive for sure. I can do email, whatever. It's still not great. Last question. I know you have to jump. Can you make a bull case for LA, the LA real estate market?