00:53:05 · Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant, John Coogan
[00:53:05] S2: Seems Yeah. Yeah. What's what's the overall what's overall, like, how's New York... What what are the trends in New York? [00:53:12] S3: The trends in New York are are similar to the rest of the country. You have two buyer demographics. You have people who are buying with income, and you have people who are buying with wealth. Yeah. And that is it. Whether you're buying with your parents' income or your parents' wealth, which is a major part of the buyer's fear right now because it's the parents, the baby boomers, and the gen xers who created this mess in the first place. Mhmm. Coming out of World War one with their grandparents and then coming out of World War two, everyone sat down together as a community in this country and decided, you know, what we're gonna do? We're gonna create a system that rewards stability and punishes mobility, and we'll figure it out later. And later is here. [00:53:50] S1: Later is now. [00:53:51] S3: It's here, and we punish mobility. And so people can't move. Like, you have 100% stagflation, like we are we are in it. Pricing is incredibly high. Inventory is incredibly low. And even if you have a great buyer on the table, where do you go? We deal with this in San Francisco like crazy right now. Pricing in the San Francisco Bay Area now is up, I think, 17.5% year over year, but that's not even a [00:54:12] S1: Doesn't
00:54:12 · John Coogan, Ryan Serhant, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:54:12] S1: Doesn't [00:54:12] S3: even That doesn't even capture what we're dealing with. 92% of every home in San Francisco this year has sold well over the asking price, not just over the asking price, but well over the asking price. And that's in part not because of what the home's worth. It's how much do you get that person to move elsewhere? Yeah. You know, we do deals on the... We just offered we had a... An oceanfront property in Palm Beach on the island. The owner had paid $45,000,000 for it. My client offered him a $125,000,000 to move, and the seller told me to myself. Not because he was angry. He said, where do I go? [00:54:52] S0: Look at [00:54:52] S2: my other options around [00:54:53] S3: it. There are no other options. There's less than 80% open oceanfront lots. What do you what do you do? I sold the Estee Lauder site last year for just under $200,000,000, and we went and bought a lot of others. I think it was the the most expensive residential sale of of all of 2025 in part because where else are you gonna go? Yeah. Florida is a state is the lowest tax state on the ocean Yeah. With ease of access to Europe Oh, interesting. But New York is strong. The luxury market is strong. I just sold Richie Saghian, the CEO of Fashion Nova Penthouse. And yes. And the mansion section. Right? Yeah. He bought the one. He also bought the penthouse of 111 Murray on Friday. So that in was the mansion section. You guys will go through it. [00:55:30] S1: Yeah. We love it. [00:55:31] S2: Yeah. On Saturday for $31,000,000.
00:55:31 · Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant, John Coogan
[00:55:31] S2: Yeah. On Saturday for $31,000,000. [00:55:34] S3: He told me it was okay to say that. So That's great. Don't come after me. [00:55:39] S1: He put me to it. [00:55:39] S3: But there's some incredible deals happening in the city. You know, there's there's... Like I said, if you're if you're buying with wealth, it's actually tougher right now to be a client than it is if you're buying with income. [00:55:48] S1: Yeah. [00:55:49] S2: Why... Wait. Wait. Wait. Why is that? Because of limited... Oh, oh, you just mean that that in that in that It's just Like, like [00:55:57] S3: if you have a buyer now, there's another article, and we were talking, you know, in Miami. Like, let me say, okay. I have a budget, 30 to $50,000,000. You're incredibly wealthy. You've made it in all of life. A comet could hit the Earth right now The the same way it wiped out the dinosaurs and could wipe out your whole world. You've made it. Everything's gonna be okay. And where are you gonna go? Mhmm. Where are gonna go? I sold a penthouse of a a condo in Surfside in Miami, not long ago for $33,000,000. Someone just offered us 85. Seller said no. Said, what am I supposed... Where am I supposed to... Where am I supposed to go?
00:55:57 · Ryan Serhant, Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:55:57] S3: if you have a buyer now, there's another article, and we were talking, you know, in Miami. Like, let me say, okay. I have a budget, 30 to $50,000,000. You're incredibly wealthy. You've made it in all of life. A comet could hit the Earth right now The the same way it wiped out the dinosaurs and could wipe out your whole world. You've made it. Everything's gonna be okay. And where are you gonna go? Mhmm. Where are gonna go? I sold a penthouse of a a condo in Surfside in Miami, not long ago for $33,000,000. Someone just offered us 85. Seller said no. Said, what am I supposed... Where am I supposed to... Where am I supposed to go? [00:56:30] S2: Well, yeah, the the the crazy thing for me is realizing I I... Having spent basically my whole life in California, everyone being like, oh, cost of living is so expensive in California. But then anywhere else that you look that you'd wanna live around the country Expensive. Like in the right in the right neighborhoods, like when you look, like, as an adult realizing that, like, looking on Zillow, you're like, oh, this place looks like pretty reasonable. And then you actually understand the market at all, and you're like, well, here's why that house is like... Looks like a great price. Yep. It's because it's not in a place you [00:56:58] S1: wanna live. Is the correct answer not that the boomer with the 8,000 square foot family home should be moving to a condo once they're an empty nester? It is. But Partly. [00:57:08] S3: And they're not moving. [00:57:08] S1: Aesthetically No. They're choice?
00:57:08 · John Coogan, Ryan Serhant, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:57:08] S1: Aesthetically No. They're choice? [00:57:10] S3: Or No. They just... They can't afford to move. [00:57:12] S1: Okay. Okay. Because of taxes and mortgage rate blocking [00:57:15] S3: If they own in cash Yeah. Or if they refinance during COVID Sure. Because there was a mass refinance movement. [00:57:22] S1: At three percent. [00:57:23] S0: Yeah. Yep. [00:57:23] S3: You know, 80% of anyone who has a loan is under 4%. Yep. So we're gonna go. Yeah. [00:57:28] S2: Yeah. [00:57:28] S3: And you're gonna move in with your kids so that you could free... To to do what? [00:57:31] S1: To do what? Yeah. [00:57:32] S3: To do what? To To just stay. And the capital gains tax exclusion has not been updated since the nineties. Yeah. And so married and filing jointly, you can write off $500,000 of gain used to mean a lot, you know, when the average home sale was 269,000. Yep. Today, it's almost almost like we're gonna see the median home price in The United States hit $500,000 very soon. [00:57:55] S2: Yeah. [00:57:55] S3: And that is not in pace with wage growth. Yeah. And it's like so so something eventually has to has to has to give.
00:57:55 · Ryan Serhant, Jordi Hays
[00:57:55] S3: And that is not in pace with wage growth. Yeah. And it's like so so something eventually has to has to has to give. [00:58:04] S2: Yeah. Rates will just have to are your predictions for, how AI money is gonna flow? We have the SpaceX IPO. We have an Anthropic IPO coming up. There's more in the future. We know how VCs will spend their money. Right? You know, the the Aspen or Montana, the the the jet markets. A lot of people generating a meaningful amount of wealth that don't seem to spend the way that other, like, Wall Street spends like they... They're they're willing to pay, like, three times over for a house in San Francisco. Yeah. But, like, where where else is is that gonna flow outside of, like, the... Just the stock market? Wyoming, Nevada Mhmm.