00:42:22 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:42:22] S1: Deep dives. [00:42:23] S0: Let's let's talk about the situational awareness 13 f. But first, let me tell you about graphite. Dev code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship ship higher quality software faster. So situational awareness 13 f for q '3 dropped Friday. Nick Carter broke it down. Massive new 500,000,000 position in CoreWeave, which has been down a bunch, but they're going in. Big adds to core, c o r z and iron, added some new miners. Intel Intel calls remain unchanged. Trimmed Broadcom, a couple other names here. And, Nick is giving it some, some context. I believe Nick was the fir one of the first investors in CoreWeave. Correct? And [00:43:08] S1: Angel. [00:43:09] S0: Angel in CoreWeave. What an insane investment. Congrats to him. So he says all these numbers are as are are as of 09/30, many of these names sold off since then. Portfolio value counting notional value of options doubled from 2,120,000,000.00 to 4,150,000,000.00, mostly due to 1,500,000,000.0 of new cash. So [00:43:33] S1: Let's give it up for new cash injection. [00:43:34] S0: We gotta ring the What a massive, massive fund. But but the but the fund did generate 700,000,000 in appreciation. So a huge, huge, huge gain.
00:43:34 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:43:34] S0: We gotta ring the What a massive, massive fund. But but the but the fund did generate 700,000,000 in appreciation. So a huge, huge, huge gain. [00:43:53] S1: Yeah. Concerning guess again, last time 13F dropped, remember, people were reading too much into it. And they were like, wow, he was long. Intel, Like, is he cooked? And then they did intel did the deal Yep. With the government and it and it absolutely ripped. This 13 f, he you know, so situational awareness had a half a billion dollar new core weave position as of basically the October. And, obviously, Core Weave has been, down into the right, down 46% in the past month. But [00:44:40] S0: Wait. Down 46% in the past month? [00:44:42] S1: Yes. I thought it was in the [00:44:43] S0: past, like, three months or something. [00:44:45] S1: No. Past month. Woah. So that position is probably not [00:44:50] S0: It's down 5% today. [00:44:52] S1: Yeah.
00:44:52 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:44:52] S1: Yeah. [00:44:52] S0: Wow. Yeah. One month, it's down 46%. That it's at a 36,000,000,000 market cap. Yeah. It's so it's so odd because, like, yeah, when you when you look at when you look at just this one name, it feels like, okay. Like, it is over. Like, AI if you told me, like, oh, yeah. Like, the the the company that really is, like, the most indexed to the AI wave, is down 46%, I'd be like, wow. So this is, like, the total popping of the bubble, complete pop. Like, it's over. It's like like, when the metaverse bubble popped, when, you know, when when crypto bubbles pop, like, Bitcoin trades down 50%, 60%, like and then it's over, and then you start rebuilding. Right? And yet and yet the overall market feels nowhere near popped. Right? Like, I mean, I'm sure NVIDIA is down somewhat down 5% past five days, but NVIDIA over the last month is still up. Over the past six months, it's up 40%. And so you would you would expect NVIDIA to be maybe, like, you know, selling off more. CoreWeave is just in a is is just in a unique position, like, truly truly rough month for that company. [00:46:08] S1: Yeah. As well as Core Scientific, which Core we've tried to buy Yeah. Was rejected. Yeah. Core Scientific has traded down 24 in the past month, which Leopold also had built the position in. I wonder we'll see.
00:46:08 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:46:08] S1: Yeah. As well as Core Scientific, which Core we've tried to buy Yeah. Was rejected. Yeah. Core Scientific has traded down 24 in the past month, which Leopold also had built the position in. I wonder we'll see. [00:46:21] S0: Yeah. I wonder I wonder what the thesis on CoreWeave is. I mean, obviously, the company is has a great product. Like, Semi Analysis has has ranked them platinum on ClusterMax. It's a it's clearly a a real company with real with real products and services and holdings. Maybe the market, it was just overheated. Maybe it's pulling back. It's kind of unclear. But if you wanna go in, analyze a bunch of 13 f's, do it in Julius, the AI data analyst. Connect your data. Ask questions in plain English. Get insights in seconds. No coding required. Speaking of other data [00:46:57] S1: So he also he he also added positions just in Western Digital Oh, he's getting Seagate. And I was just going through [00:47:06] S0: On the hard drive trade, gotta store that data somewhere and potentially [00:47:11] S1: Modine Manufacturing.
00:47:11 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:47:11] S1: Modine Manufacturing. [00:47:13] S0: Okay. I I'd be interested to know what he's thinking about in the in the energy side on the the gas turbine side. Right? Isn't that what semi analysis was drawing the most attention to? Feels like they've been very ahead of the curve on identifying Yeah. Companies that are basically already supply constrained. And if you just look and if you look deeper into what's going on in their book of business Yep. They're about to flip to incredibly high margins. Because once once everything goes out of stock, this company can just all of a sudden say, yeah. Actually act actually, we need 60% margins. People will be like, yeah. No problem. Like, you're the [00:47:56] S1: I I want to buy as much [00:47:57] S0: as possible. [00:47:57] S1: Yeah. So the story from situational awareness is like all the neo clouds have sold off a ton Yeah. Where we've [00:48:03] S0: Situation room here. Hiring. Saying Satya unloaded his risk onto the neo clouds. It's a game of sort of, I don't know, musical chairs. Yeah. And so that's Yeah. [00:48:14] S1: Like the deal with the deal with Microsoft [00:48:17] S0: Yeah. [00:48:18] S1: Just wasn't it like seemed to be like little to no margin. [00:48:23] S0: Yeah. [00:48:24] S1: But anyway, so if you so the Neo Clouds have also sold off, but Lumentum Holdings is up 46% in the past month, which he added. Western Digital up 25% and Seagate up 14%. So Yeah. He's making up for it.
00:48:24 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Stacy Rasgon
[00:48:24] S1: But anyway, so if you so the Neo Clouds have also sold off, but Lumentum Holdings is up 46% in the past month, which he added. Western Digital up 25% and Seagate up 14%. So Yeah. He's making up for it. [00:48:40] S0: Yeah. Yeah. It's it's the birth of a new of a new bond. It's just like it's it's the very, very hot part of the cycle. I think everyone's wondering, like, how big will this be in a decade? That's a that's a big question. It's a it's it's a very exciting time and but you gotta stick the landing. And I think people are I'm sort of rooting for him. I think he's I think he's gonna do it. [00:49:05] S1: Yeah. The question is like, are like, is it gonna be a true hedge fund? Like, he gonna make money [00:49:11] S0: In a down market? [00:49:12] S1: In a a in [00:49:13] S6: a correction. [00:49:15] S0: I mean, yeah. I bet we're gonna open up one of these 13 f's and be like, wow. He's short everything now. Okay. And then and then you're see everything sell off, and it'll be like, wow. Another That [00:49:25] S1: would be much higher signal than PT in a in a, you know, $75,000,000 fund.