Jonathan Gudai, CEO of Adomni, predicts US digital out-of-home spend of $2.5bn to $3bn can more than double within two to four years, even under COVID conditions.
Gudai says roadside digital billboards gained audience after COVID, and Adomni shifted sales toward them as people returned to the road.
Gudai names measurement as the biggest challenge for programmatic out-of-home, and warns that Apple's iOS 14 opt-in threatens location data and Geopath estimates.
Adomni's CEO bets online ad buyers will double digital billboards
Jonathan Gudai argues US digital out-of-home, now a $2.5 to $3bn market, can double in two to four years by attracting the buyers who fund programmatic display. Those buyers already pay mostly for awareness, since banner ads rarely get clicked, and billboards now plug into the same automated buying tools. With supply at critical mass, measurement and mobile privacy are what stand in the way.
Takeaways
Digital out-of-home can double within four years. Gudai puts US digital out-of-home spend at $2.5 to $3bn and says it can reach $5bn in two to four years, even adjusted for COVID. He calls $10bn within five years feasible.
Growth will come from online display buyers. Over $50bn a year goes to US display ads, and only about one in 300 viewers clicks. Gudai argues display already works like a billboard for awareness, citing Amazon's rise to about $15bn and connected TV.
Billboards make online ads perform better. Gudai says pairing digital billboards with display, social or search lifts those campaigns, and he wants to publish case studies. Adomni's demand side platform lets buyers launch campaigns in minutes, and he expects The Trade Desk to become a route in.
Measurement is the biggest obstacle. Out-of-home is not a direct response medium, so it cannot show clicks like a $500 Facebook test. Adomni plans lift studies using mobile devices that pass its boards, though larger campaigns may be needed for statistical significance.
Supply only recently reached critical mass. Gudai says the industry controls its own pace. Adomni and Vistar now carry enough impressions to attract big digital brands, but many independent billboard operators still do not sell programmatically.
iOS 14 threatens location data. Apple's opt-in for precise location worries Gudai for targeting and for Geopath, which relies partly on mobile data. Facebook warned its Audience Network may end. He worries less about Android because Google depends on ad sales.
Roadside billboards recovered fastest from COVID. Advertisers paused in March and April, but money shifted rather than stopped. Westburg's June roadside revenue topped January, while place-based, transit and street furniture fell 70 to 80 percent in the second quarter. Adomni redirected sales to roadside.
Myths media owners believe about programmatic
Programmatic is an extension of a media owner's business and does not compete with its direct sales team.
Online programmatic prices fell because supply exceeded demand. Billboard owners set their own floor prices, so the same race to the bottom need not happen.
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On this episode 2
Show 1
Physical billboards are scarce, and Gudai predicts the price per ad play will rise over the next few years as demand grows.
Buying the medium is no longer difficult, since campaigns can be built online in minutes.
Uber car tops as a billboard extension
About 1,000 vehicles carry Adomni screens in Atlanta, Dallas and Phoenix, running eight-second spots with video where compliant, and more cities are coming soon.
Car-top ads can be sequenced with nearby digital billboards, and billboards can switch on programmatically only when a car carrying the same brand is close.