Revolut's current $2.2bn revenue would need roughly 50 times growth to reach Storonsky's $100bn target, and host Jonny says new products like eSIMs and Revpoints are far too small to close that gap.
Jonny argues Revolut must move into lending, private banking and business credit, since HSBC earns about 30 times more revenue than Revolut from fewer customers.
Jonny says a full US banking licence is the hurdle that matters most, because without it Revolut is locked out of credit cards, mortgages and business lending, making an IPO for trust and capital feel inevitable.
Revolut's $100 Billion Goal Depends on Becoming a Real Bank
Revolut's goal of $100bn in revenue means growing about 50 times from $2.2bn in 2023. Customer growth alone cannot do it, because Revolut earns roughly $58 per customer. The money sits in lending, deposits, wealth, business finance and the US market, all of which depend on bank licences, trust and capital that Revolut has not yet secured.
Takeaways
Revolut needs revenue per customer to rise sharply. Revolut made $2.2bn in 2023, so $100bn means roughly 50 times growth. At about $58 per customer per year it would need around 1.7bn customers, so the real lever is earning more from each one.
New consumer features are too small to close the gap. eSIMs, Revpoints, the mobile wallet and Revolut X are nowhere near game changing enough. Even Binance, the largest crypto exchange, was estimated at only $12bn in 2022, which shows the scale of the gap.
Legacy banks earn from lending, not customer counts. HSBC has fewer customers than Revolut but makes about 30 times more money, from mortgages, personal loans, credit cards, wealth management and business lending. Where money is made matters more than user numbers. Revolut plans mortgages by 2025 but must first strengthen its balance sheet.
Deposits are the missing foundation. Revolut holds £18.2bn across 38m customers, an average of only £480, so most users do not treat it as a primary bank. A private bank is meant to attract large deposits, which let Revolut lend more.
Business lending and investment banking are large untapped pools. HSBC's Commercial Banking earned $11.9bn pre-tax in 2024, while Revolut business accounts mostly handle payments and expenses. Global Banking and Markets earned $7.1bn, and Robinhood and eToro together fall far short of JPMorgan's investment banking revenue.
The US licence is the hurdle that matters most. US banking runs on credit cards with 2% interchange, while debit interchange is about half a percent. A non-bank cannot issue credit cards online, so without a full US bank licence Revolut is locked out of cards, mortgages and business lending.
AI and an IPO are the proposed accelerators. Industry leaders estimate AI could unlock $1tn in banking revenue, and Upstart and OakNorth suggest AI credit models can beat banks. Jonny sees an IPO as inevitable for capital and trust, citing Robinhood, NewBank and Wise.
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