Bloomberg Talks
00:09:22 · S0, Robert Kaplan, S1
[00:09:22] S0: Governments historically highly leveraged. [00:09:25] S3: And in the aftermath of COVID, we got a lot more leverage and we don't have workforce growth. So that means we're putting all our chips on productivity growth. [00:09:35] S0: And I do. [00:09:36] S3: Worry that we've got to come up around the world, including here with fiscal approach, that at least shows how we're going to bend these deficits as a percentage of GDP. Because I worry about the long end of the curve, that it keeps backing up. [00:09:52] S0: And that's squeezing housing. It's squeezing a lot of businesses. [00:09:55] S1: I've got to get this in quickly because Paul's got a series of questions. So then do you advocate? that we should get our blended tax rate back up to where it was? Is that what's coming down the pike from, say, 17% or 18% of budget up to 19% or 20% halfway there? [00:10:10] S3: I'm not smart enough to know it. But I think there's 15 things you need to do. [00:10:14] S0: So what do you need? You need to grow faster. [00:10:16] S3: I would argue we need to re-look at Immigration. We need one to two million a year in immigration. There are a lot of open jobs that are not getting filled, and it's slowing growth. I think you're going to have to continue to keep balanced regulation to help spur growth. Yeah, we need a plan to. [00:10:37] S0: Use all the. [00:10:37] S3: Every company we've just heard is using AI to control costs. [00:10:41] S0: Governments should be doing the same.
00:10:41 · S0, Robert Kaplan, S4
[00:10:41] S0: Governments should be doing the same. [00:10:42] S3: So, reinstitute embedded cost management in all the government entities. And entitlement reform is going to be on the menu, also has to be, because it's such a big part of the budget. And you notice the big miss on the budget deficit in 2026. I think $ 250 billion of it was entitlement surprised. Heading north, another $ 100 billion, I believe, was interest expense. So we're going to have to look at entitlement reform. So you need a menu of things. And we can do it, but we've got to start. [00:11:14] S4: These are the conversations that we as a society have been having for 40-plus years that I've been on Global Wall Street. We just haven't had the political will to engage. Do you sense there's something that's going to accelerate this? Is it people looking across the pond to France and saying, you don't want to be in that position? [00:11:34] S3: So people say all the time, we've been talking about this my whole life, it's never mattered why now. [00:11:39] S0: I think we're getting to a level of debt to GDP. [00:11:43] S3: And you're seeing this in Europe, you're seeing this around the world, you're seeing it in Japan, where I think the treasury curve is not acting right now like a cyclical diversifier. [00:11:54] S0: There was a flight to quality the last two weeks, I think it was refreshing. But for the last two. [00:11:58] S3: Years, the theory is when the economy slows, markets go down, treasuries rally. [00:12:04] S0: We're not seeing that.
00:12:04 · S0, Robert Kaplan, S2, S1
[00:12:04] S0: We're not seeing that. [00:12:05] S3: I think we're getting to a level of debt where people are more reluctant now to own treasuries. That's a dangerous thing. I think that should be the red warning light that gets us to address this. [00:12:16] S2: I've got to get this in. It's too important. [00:12:18] S1: Skydance, Paramount, five days a week in the office, Warner Brothers. three days in the office, work from home. Robert Kaplan wrote a book years ago, folks, What You're Really Meant to Do. And it wasn't like a Netflix series because it was really an uncomfortable book. The importance of relationships. How in God's name, Robert Kaplan, would you or I be where we are today, working from home? [00:12:46] S0: Discuss. This is why most businesses. [00:12:49] S3: During COVID, the first reaction was, oh, my God, this is working better than we thought working remotely. And then eventually people realized, no, training, mentoring, coaching, relationship building deteriorates. And that's why most businesses, including ours at Goldman, we ask, you've got to come back to the office because we need the gathering in person in order to– So what does Nick Booth at. [00:13:15] S1: Stanford get wrong? Let me cut to the chase. He's leading the academic charge on him. There's a lot of, full disclosure, folks, I'm six days in the office. [00:13:24] S2: Okay. What's Booth and the crew get wrong at Stanford?
00:13:24 · S2, Robert Kaplan, S4, S0, S1
[00:13:24] S2: Okay. What's Booth and the crew get wrong at Stanford? [00:13:29] S3: Listen, there are certain functions that I think And I think there's some good development, certain functions you can work remotely. Listen, if you have children and you have other obligations, I think we ought to accommodate those. But by and large, I think what you're missing is the cultural development, mentoring, coaching, observing. Coaching requires observation. I can't observe you. if we're not together. For younger people in particular, they need the coaching. And I see it every day. And you can't do it if it's remote because I don't know what you're doing. [00:14:06] S2: Absolutely. Real quickly. [00:14:08] S4: So Goldman Sachs, the younger bankers, I mean, to me, when I was a young banker, I learned by just observing and interacting with my senior folks. I mean, to this day, I do things a certain way because I think back to what. [00:14:22] S0: Same here. [00:14:23] S1: I mean. [00:14:25] S4: Was there a generation lost there? [00:14:28] S3: I think when folks were out of the office there for a year or two, I think some of the training, leadership, development, mentoring, and coaching might have atrophied a little bit. And I think we're working very hard, and I think most businesses are, to rebuild that if you want a successful firm. [00:14:45] S2: Come on, the movie Margin Call. [00:14:48] S1: Could they have had that famous meeting with Jeremy Irons at the end of the table if. [00:14:52] S2: They were all work from home? [00:14:53] S4: I don't think so.
00:14:53 · S4, S1, S0
[00:14:53] S4: I don't think so. [00:14:56] S1: Robert Kapp, we got through it without talking about University of Kansas football. [00:15:01] S0: We're to important topics now, yeah.