The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
00:05:53 · Harry Stebbings, Satya Nadella
[00:05:53] S1: We don't have that architecture today. Is that just symbolic of where we are in the production? [00:05:58] S0: But our architecture exists. So there are two... I think people conflate what I'll call an engineered security, zero trust architectural system for containment and AI safety. Because I think people say, AI safety is hard and elusive and not yet achieved, so therefore there must be nothing we can do on security. And I'm not saying that these two things are all got to come together at the same time. In fact, I would just say, Hey, we have to deal with the situation as it exists, so let's build a trust system outside, in fact, of the model, and then just be super aggressive in setting policy and monitoring for policy deviation. On the monitoring side, if we think [00:06:37] S1: about chain of thought, how reliable is that?
00:06:37 · Harry Stebbings, Satya Nadella
[00:06:37] S1: about chain of thought, how reliable is that? [00:06:40] S0: It's not. Right. We know that the chain of thought itself unfaithful, and in fact, it can be made worse when the model company says, Well, it's unfaithful, and I'm going to hide it. And so it becomes even more problematic. And that's where I think a little bit of the push for standardization and the COT, at least for trusted partners, being available as is so that it's inspectable, it's auditable, and I can check using multiple models and what have you. So that's going to be one of the in fact, that's one of the things that may even drive more open weights, quite frankly. Because if you can't... It's funny. Close rate models are more powerful. But if they kind of don't recognize the need to be more transparent, especially as their trusted partners use it, then we may have a problem. Can I ask [00:07:27] S1: you when we think about that rise of open source? I completely agree with you in terms of closed being more powerful. Open source stays predominantly Chinese models. Is that a concern then when we think about safety being baked into pretraining, when we think about disclosures as we said there, and then juxtaposed with the majority of open source being Chinese?
00:07:27 · Harry Stebbings, Satya Nadella
[00:07:27] S1: you when we think about that rise of open source? I completely agree with you in terms of closed being more powerful. Open source stays predominantly Chinese models. Is that a concern then when we think about safety being baked into pretraining, when we think about disclosures as we said there, and then juxtaposed with the majority of open source being Chinese? [00:07:45] S0: Yeah. I mean, I think there are two sets of things. I do believe if you sort of step back somehow AI safety not being there is not a good thing for China, is not a good thing for The United States, it's not a good thing for The UK. So I think that there's a part of everyone... Because this is not something that somehow an unaligned, open weight Chinese model will probably attack even China. So it's not like you can sell the rest, think that this will only be used as an attack vector. So setting that aside, I'm pretty pleased with some of the progress even the open weight models in the West are making. Obviously, Jensen's working on it, the other folks are working on it. We will have even the MAI models that will be not open weight. Think of it more as licensed weights. Think of it that way. I want to turn this into just a simple, straightforward software business as opposed to a network effects intelligence business. So I think there will be different business models. And I ultimately trust in your ability to use those models and control those models is what's gonna determine what gets used.
00:07:45 · Satya Nadella, Harry Stebbings
[00:07:45] S0: Yeah. I mean, I think there are two sets of things. I do believe if you sort of step back somehow AI safety not being there is not a good thing for China, is not a good thing for The United States, it's not a good thing for The UK. So I think that there's a part of everyone... Because this is not something that somehow an unaligned, open weight Chinese model will probably attack even China. So it's not like you can sell the rest, think that this will only be used as an attack vector. So setting that aside, I'm pretty pleased with some of the progress even the open weight models in the West are making. Obviously, Jensen's working on it, the other folks are working on it. We will have even the MAI models that will be not open weight. Think of it more as licensed weights. Think of it that way. I want to turn this into just a simple, straightforward software business as opposed to a network effects intelligence business. So I think there will be different business models. And I ultimately trust in your ability to use those models and control those models is what's gonna determine what gets used. [00:08:47] S1: As a venture investor, I have to predict where traffic will go today between closed, open. When you think about the two different dimensions, which is, like, traffic and dollars, if we look forward, say, twenty four months, what percent of traffic goes through open versus closed do
00:09:02 · Satya Nadella
[00:09:02] S0: you think? It's a great question. I I, I think it depends on what the frontier looks like, which is I think most things seem to get saturated. And when it gets saturated, open weights or even just cheaper models of even closed weights seems to work. Because especially one of the things is if you can train on your own traces, then you really don't need the latest model to be able to solve that same problem if the problem has not changed. So if you have an eval that you want to continuously keep moving forward, then you may want to pay. But even there, by the way, I'm very thrilled about this Hydro Fusion stuff we now have in GitHub where... I just saw this. Yeah, because the cool thing there is it's a learned model. Anyway, we are now going into these agent swarms and multiple sub agents. So I can call a lot of sub agents that even happen to be local models. And so I think my suspicion is that there will always be a market for Frontier. There will always be some new thing. Science may be the next thing that Frontier is being set at. But I think predominantly token usage will be commodity token usage. Does that mean it's open source predominantly? It be open rates. Or as I said, it can also be cheap to close rates, right? Because there will be lots of price competition, let me put it that way. Because if you look at my own usage inside of Copilot, we use a lot of closed source, cheaper models along with open rate models.
00:10:28 · Harry Stebbings
[00:10:28] S1: You said about kind of the importance of owning your own intelligence for some of your amazing customers that you have. You were talking about some in The UK. Is that the model environment that we have moving forward, intelligence for companies with their own data?