Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
01:23:41 · Gavin Uberti, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
[01:23:41] S1: Absolutely. It is a matter of time. It's like asking, will you see a billion dollar fab or a $10,000,000,000 fab or a $100,000,000,000 fab? It is inevitable that the economies of scale don't stop at, oh, 40,000,000,000 is the magic number for fabs. No, the cost wafer keeps going down as you keep spending more money. And the same thing will be true of plants that go out and make steel or plants that [01:24:04] S0: go out and make tokens. A very smart alien lands on Earth and wants to know from each of you how you would frame up this opportunity that you guys are tackling. What do you say to them? [01:24:15] S1: Truman is thinking is really valuable, that every company in the world runs on thinking. And we are entering this really unique moment in time where you have machines that can go think almost as good and as soon as good and as soon better than the best humans can. Building these machines is going be a huge opportunity, but more important than that, the way in which you go ahead and run this kind of thinking is going to be very, very different as demand goes higher and higher and higher and higher. There's a unique moment right now to go build a new set of solutions, a new roadmap for how do you run the future quadrillion parameter models for a billion people all at the same time on a gigantic scale up cluster.
01:24:15 · Gavin Uberti, Rob Wachen
[01:24:15] S1: Truman is thinking is really valuable, that every company in the world runs on thinking. And we are entering this really unique moment in time where you have machines that can go think almost as good and as soon as good and as soon better than the best humans can. Building these machines is going be a huge opportunity, but more important than that, the way in which you go ahead and run this kind of thinking is going to be very, very different as demand goes higher and higher and higher and higher. There's a unique moment right now to go build a new set of solutions, a new roadmap for how do you run the future quadrillion parameter models for a billion people all at the same time on a gigantic scale up cluster. [01:24:56] S3: We are in a new era of intelligence where the cost of producing intelligence is dramatically so much cheaper than the value of the intelligence that we are in a many year, probably many decade supply shortage of these tokens. And, basically, any chip or any system that can produce tokens is likely to be extremely valuable, and you should find some part of the supply chain of the token. That can be everything from model training down to what we're doing in silicon and otherwise to spend time on and push the frontier, and that the companies that are the largest are frankly going to be the companies that produce most of the global supply of tokens and own a majority of the supply chain of that token. And importantly, it's people who build systems that as they get more and more chips put together, get cheaper.
01:24:56 · Rob Wachen, Gavin Uberti, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
[01:24:56] S3: We are in a new era of intelligence where the cost of producing intelligence is dramatically so much cheaper than the value of the intelligence that we are in a many year, probably many decade supply shortage of these tokens. And, basically, any chip or any system that can produce tokens is likely to be extremely valuable, and you should find some part of the supply chain of the token. That can be everything from model training down to what we're doing in silicon and otherwise to spend time on and push the frontier, and that the companies that are the largest are frankly going to be the companies that produce most of the global supply of tokens and own a majority of the supply chain of that token. And importantly, it's people who build systems that as they get more and more chips put together, get cheaper. [01:25:46] S1: The way you want this to scale is not that, oh, if I want go serve 10 times more tokens, I buy 10 times more servers. It must be some solution where if I want to go serve 10 times more tokens, then I get some economies of scale benefit with my, say, cluster scale memory tech that allows me to then not charge as much as 10 times more for those fact tokens. [01:26:05] S0: What a ridiculously exciting future that you guys are building to enable. When I did this with Gavin last time, asked him my traditional closing question, so this time I'll ask you. What is the kindest thing that anyone's ever done for you?
01:26:16 · Rob Wachen, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
[01:26:16] S3: During my cancer treatment, there was a big decision I had to make. The doctors came to me and said, it's time for you to decide. Do you want to get surgery or do you want to get radiation? Here's the trade off. If you get surgery, you're more likely to live, but you have to assume you'll never be able to walk again. If you get radiation, you'll be able to walk again, but it's not the same probability that you'll live. You may die. What do you want to do? And I was 16, and my parents said, you have to make this decision for yourself. I thought a lot about it for a long time and decided I'm gonna do the surgery. I get the surgery. One of the things you do when you get a tumor resection is they do something called a necrosis analysis, where they look at all the different cells and say, is a cell dead or alive? Because if you have a bunch of cancer cells that are alive, you have a problem. And they looked at it and they said, you know, you usually want 98, 99% necrosis for us to say you're in the clear. You're below that. You should go get radiation. And there was only a few machines in the world that actually could do the type of radiation I needed. One of them was in Boston. I was in a wheelchair, and I needed to move to Boston for multiple months. And both of my parents decided to move out and drop everything they were doing and and live with me, and I'm eternally grateful. [01:27:26] S0: Beautiful. Thanks, guys.
01:27:27 · S4
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