Prof G Markets
00:16:13 · Catherine Rampell
[00:16:13] S4: Well, they do have subpoena power, and the places where I think they are more likely to be successful with it are with the people outside of the government, outside of the executive branch, who have been somehow collaborating with the regime, whether reluctantly or gleefully. So you mentioned companies that have been cooperative, shall we say, with him. There are the companies that donated... I'm I'm using scare quotes if you can't see this, donated to the ballroom, in some cases for apparent favor trading. We don't know in in some cases, but in in some cases, it certainly looks that way. You have lots of other, at best, unseemly, at worst, potentially criminal types of arrangements, no bid contracts, other kinds of contracts, cooperation with the immigration agenda, equity stakes being taken in companies. All of that, I think, is going to be on the table for for Congress, a Democratic majority Congress and Senate to look into. There's lots to dig into. Elon Musk, obviously, a very prime target for them as well. I think the challenge for Democrats as they pursue some of these things is to not look like this is score settling, that this is the kind of lawfare that Trump has waged upon his own enemies. This isn't about, like, oh, these guys didn't vote for us, and therefore, we're gonna subpoena them up the wazoo and and make them spend a lot of money on lawyers and such. They have to make clear that this is about actual lawbreaking, and particularly, if they're smart, law breaking that actually hurts the general public. So it's not just that, like, these are companies that, I don't know, that got rich somehow, and that's... That was all that was at stake. And maybe there was insider trading or I don't know. Some things where it's a little bit abstract to figure out who the victims are. But to focus on, like, with Elon Musk, let's say, what happened with Starlink. And was... You know, were US interests being compromised? Or Jamie Raskin, is a congressman from Maryland... Democratic congressman from Maryland, sent a letter recently to the oil companies saying, basically, don't you dare cooperate with Donald Trump's imperative, whatever, direction to help import oil from Russia because that's still sanctioned. That would still be against the law. We don't care what the executive orders in the deal with Putin say.
00:18:49 · Catherine Rampell, Ed Elson
So I think that there are particular cases where it'll be more fruitful to look at potential law breaking where you can actually show that, like, US national security interests or US economic interests, you know, regular people's economic interests, financial concerns, were potentially sacrificed in order for these companies to somehow enrich themselves. [00:19:13] S3: It's gonna be such a a thorny issue because at the same time, I would hate for them to be overly cautious about prosecuting actual crime out of fear of being seen as pursuing some form of law... Of lawfare. And, mean, even that is a form of lawfare, not not prosecuting the law for political reasons, essentially, because you're scared that you're gonna be seen as doing something political. I mean, it's gonna be it's gonna be fascinating to watch. I I'm... It'll be very interesting to see what they actually pursue.
00:19:13 · Ed Elson, Catherine Rampell
[00:19:13] S3: It's gonna be such a a thorny issue because at the same time, I would hate for them to be overly cautious about prosecuting actual crime out of fear of being seen as pursuing some form of law... Of lawfare. And, mean, even that is a form of lawfare, not not prosecuting the law for political reasons, essentially, because you're scared that you're gonna be seen as doing something political. I mean, it's gonna be it's gonna be fascinating to watch. I I'm... It'll be very interesting to see what they actually pursue. [00:19:45] S4: I was watching how different networks were covering the results today, and so I was watching Fox News earlier, and Trey Gowdy, who... If his name sounds familiar, he was like representative Trey, middle name Benghazi, Gowdy. He was complaining about how he anticipated that Democrats were going to use their gavels and their subpoena power to just, like, punish... Put... Know, do these... Mete out these political punishments to punish anybody who believed in the Trump agenda as opposed to looking at actual lawbreaking or pretend... You know, suspected lawbreaking. And so Republicans are already crafting that narrative around it even when they themselves, you might argue, were, again, looking at Benghazi, for example, and and made a dog and pony show out of all of that. But it will be challenging for Democrats to to show that they're, like, focused on the American people and their voters, the people who put them there, and not just, like, settling scores.
00:19:45 · Catherine Rampell, Ed Elson
[00:19:45] S4: I was watching how different networks were covering the results today, and so I was watching Fox News earlier, and Trey Gowdy, who... If his name sounds familiar, he was like representative Trey, middle name Benghazi, Gowdy. He was complaining about how he anticipated that Democrats were going to use their gavels and their subpoena power to just, like, punish... Put... Know, do these... Mete out these political punishments to punish anybody who believed in the Trump agenda as opposed to looking at actual lawbreaking or pretend... You know, suspected lawbreaking. And so Republicans are already crafting that narrative around it even when they themselves, you might argue, were, again, looking at Benghazi, for example, and and made a dog and pony show out of all of that. But it will be challenging for Democrats to to show that they're, like, focused on the American people and their voters, the people who put them there, and not just, like, settling scores. [00:20:46] S3: Well, I hope they just provide evidence. And once we see evidence, then then we'll know. Were crimes committed? Just to wrap up, is this the end of MAGA in your view? Is this the end of Trump? Like, this is the most, I think, the most resounding message saying we've had enough of this. It's been, you know, ten, eleven years of of of Trump being around and the MAGA movement being alive and well. Do you think this is it?
00:21:17 · Catherine Rampell
[00:21:17] S4: I think it depends on how you define MAGA. I think there will be a power struggle in the next couple of years to sort of inherit that America First MAGA movement in a way that is not focused on Trump. Right? Because there's not a whole lot that the Republican Party writ large or MAGA stands for at this point beyond Donald Trump. They kinda like lopped off every limb that they could find. They they, my colleague Andrew Eggart talked about this recently at The Bulwark. But basically, they, you know, they cut off the neocons to begin with, the free trade people, the... Even the the people who cared about, like, religious moral issues. They they... They've kind of cut out... Even the people who cared about low taxes, if you think about tariffs, which are taxes. So they kind of cut out every principle that they stand for beyond Donald Trump. So what does that movement look like without Donald Trump? And I think that there is a lane for the more isolationist, maybe some of the uglier anti immigrant stuff, to persist even without Donald Trump leading it. Like, I could very well see a lane for a Tucker Carlson or someone like that. And maybe he won't call it MAGA, but it will be sort of inheriting maybe some of the uglier parts of the agenda, if not necessarily, I don't know, credit for the war, let's say, or the the tariffs.
00:22:46 · Ed Elson, Catherine Rampell, S0
[00:22:46] S3: His criticism of Trump at this point does seem strategically quite effective. He's in a he's he's in a better position this week probably than he was last week. Catherine Rampell is an economics editor at The Bulwark, anchor at MS Now, and host of the Receipts Podcast, which just launched. I encourage you to go check it out. Catherine, really appreciate your time. [00:23:08] S4: Thank you. [00:23:09] S3: After the break, what the midterm results mean for AI. And for even more markets insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, simply put, at edwardelson.substack.com. [00:23:28] S0: Support for the show comes from Morgan Stanley's podcast, Hard Lessons. Some investing lessons will become clear after you see how a call plays out. On Hard Lessons, iconic investors sit down with Morgan Stanley leaders to go behind the scenes on the critical moments, both successes and setbacks that shaped who they are today. Hear from iconic investors, including Stan Druckenmiller, John Gray, Rick Reeder, and Gene Hines as they revisit the calls that worked, the ones that didn't, and the moments that changed their thinking. You'll hear in their own words how they built conviction, what happened when certain calls didn't play out as expected, and what they learned from those moments. Watch or listen to hard lessons wherever you get your podcasts.