00:04:04 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:04:04] S1: For now. [00:04:04] S0: Get into the news, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. So the big news of the day is that China has taken a page out of Washington's playbook potentially and aiming to limit the export of AI models. Now these are just meetings at this point, but Chinese authorities have reportedly, this is according to Reuters, held meetings with some of the country's top tech firms. That's Alibaba, ByteDance, Z dot ai, DeepSeek, High Flyer not mentioned yet, but you have to imagine that they'll be in the conversation if they aren't already about potentially restricting overseas access to China's most advanced model. So, they're thinking about doing the same thing that's happening with GPT 5.6, SOL, Ultra, Mythos, Fable, all these different models that are starting to get more restricted as they get more powerful. The government wants a say in what companies and what nongovernmental organizations, what governmental organizations have access to them. So the discussions are still preliminary. [00:05:07] S1: When when did in AI 2027, did China [00:05:11] S0: wake [00:05:11] S1: up? [00:05:12] S0: Right around this time. Right around this time. [00:05:14] S1: Mid twenty twenty
00:05:14 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Tyler
[00:05:14] S1: Mid twenty twenty [00:05:15] S0: I actually have on my calendar check on Jack Clark for today because, because last year, December 23, Jack Clark predicted that there would be big changes and acceleration in mid twenty twenty six. He said, so by summer of twenty twenty six, it will be as though the digital world is going through some kind of fast evolution with some parts of it emitting a huge amount of heat and light and moving with counterintuitive speed relative to everything else, great fortunes will be won and lost here, and the powerful engines of our silicon creation will be put to work further accelerating this economy and further changing things. Do you think that's where we are? Is that an accurate assessment of mid twenty twenty six? When I saw this prediction, I put a calendar reminder for mid twenty twenty six. We're right in the middle of the year, And I wanted to check-in and say, does it feel like this? Obviously, this is not a quantitative benchmark. This is a qualitative feeling. Fast evolution, emitting a huge amount of heat and light, moving with counterintuitive speed relative to everything else. Great fortunes certainly are being won and lost every day in the market. Tyler, how would you assess the amount of heat and light emitting from some parts of the digital world? Would you say it's huge? [00:06:38] S2: I would say it's huge. I I think it's huge. It's kind of hard. Like, I feel like I've been, like, very tapped in for a long time, so it's hard to say, like [00:06:46] S0: you've been, yeah, you've been feeling the
00:06:46 · John Coogan, Tyler, Jordi Hays
[00:06:46] S0: you've been, yeah, you've been feeling the [00:06:48] S2: It's hard to see, like, an outside view is, like, oh, is this actually, like, is the has there been a a big change, like, recently? [00:06:53] S0: Yes. So there's two things. Like, one [00:06:55] S1: It's been kind of like a personal thing for you being so tapped in. Would you say that? [00:06:59] S0: So there's I mean, there's two things going on. One is that anyone has [00:07:04] S1: like a personal thing for Tyler. He's been so tapped in for so long. It's [00:07:09] S2: No. It's like it's true. It's true. So much of news coming out of DC Yeah. Of the past, like, two, three months has been about AI, which is, like, definitely was not true [00:07:17] S0: Yes. [00:07:17] S2: You know, even earlier this year, I [00:07:19] S1: would say. [00:07:19] S0: Yes. And the just just the amount of heat and light around cybersecurity issues, the coding models, the agentic capabilities, the revenues that we would see in enterprise, those have not been a shock to AI insiders who have been tracking the capabilities of these models since last October or even last summer, when models started, when vibe coding was coined by Andre Karpathy and coding became, you know, not solved, but, you know, greatly enhanced by
00:07:19 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:07:19] S0: Yes. And the just just the amount of heat and light around cybersecurity issues, the coding models, the agentic capabilities, the revenues that we would see in enterprise, those have not been a shock to AI insiders who have been tracking the capabilities of these models since last October or even last summer, when models started, when vibe coding was coined by Andre Karpathy and coding became, you know, not solved, but, you know, greatly enhanced by [00:07:50] S1: artificial AI 2027 Yes. Which was published April 3 Yes. 2025. By late twenty twenty six, they had or sorry. Mid twenty twenty six was China wakes up. In China, the CCP is starting to feel the AGI. Mhmm. Export controls and lack of government support have left China under resourced compared to the West. I'm gonna fast forward a little bit. Hawks Hawks and the CCP warn that the growing race towards AGI can no longer be ignored. So they finally commit to the big AI push that they had previously tried to avoid. He sets in motion the nationalization of Chinese AI research [00:08:28] S0: Okay. [00:08:28] S1: Creating an information sharing mechanism for AI companies. So right now, they're just looking at export controls. [00:08:34] S0: Feels like we're a little bit behind on this. [00:08:36] S1: It's possible the CCP is just reading this as a guide and just implementing it. They're just planning to implement it to [00:08:43] S0: a t. [00:08:43] S1: Thanks for the guide. Yeah. Thanks. Did my job. Thanks for the playbook. Yeah. You should've you should've billed me for it.
00:08:48 · John Coogan
[00:08:48] S0: Yeah. No. The real the real four d chess here is to shame the CCP into not copying off of AI 2027 saying, oh, really? You're just doing the AI twenty twenty seven thing? Come on. You don't need to invest today. I don't be memetic with our with our philosopher's literature and our most popular podcast over here in America. Think of your own strategy. Come on. Do whatever. No. So the discussions around AI export controls in China are still preliminary, and it isn't clear how Beijing could claw back access to models that they've already released. If they're on Hugging Face, you can download them. You can run them. And even if they had some sort of intellectual property, they could sue an open source inference provider for running Kimi or something like that. That feels really difficult to do from Beijing. But there are other implications. So once open open weight models are posted publicly, of course, they can be copied, mirrored, downloaded, reused anywhere fine tuned. But there are several ways China could restrict future frontier models before they leave the country. At the latest end, Beijing could require companies to file future releases with regulators or submit them for national security review before publishing model weights. A more aggressive version would require government approval before any advanced model could be released overseas. And at the most restrictive end, China could simply ban the public release of frontier open weight models. They could say, No more open sourcing. Although, the game theory there is a little odd because it feels like the fact that China has been open sourcing near frontier capabilities has been to China's benefit in general because it creates, like, more disturbances. Like, the deep sea moment
00:10:30 · Jordi Hays
[00:10:30] S1: was definitely good for China. Pricing pressure.