01:47:36 · John Coogan, Ben Liu, Jordi Hays
[01:47:36] S1: Makes sense. [01:47:36] S6: And so, you know, it gives us an interesting... Like, we kinda ask the question, like, why hasn't there been a big pharma company really in our industry created since the nineteen eighties? Yeah. And one of the big challenges, if you're a venture... And that's kind of the Amgen's Vertex If kind of of the you're like venture backed company, it takes you like three to five years to get in the clinic, and then two to four years to run a phase one and phase two. Phase two is only worth 30% of the time on average. And let's say you're fortunate enough after you spend 60,000,000 to run a phase two, and it works, and a pharma company offers you $5,000,000,000 to take the chips off the table, you could, you know, not sell, run a phase three. There's a 40% chance it goes to zero, a 60% chance the phase three works, and then you can sell for two to three x peak sales. Risk adjusted, the rational thing is to sell. So we're structured as a company as a hub and spoke so we can sell in new co without selling the whole company. But if you can only take three shots and you hit a winner, you should probably sell. Right? Because if the expected value is 30%, you know, it's more likely your MOVE and IRR is gonna be diminished if you kind of run those two shots versus just sell off the first shot. So as a consequence, our industry usually has biotechs get acquired before they can become the next, you know, Roche or or or Novartis. [01:48:47] S0: Same exact [01:48:48] S6: thing we're humming from. [01:48:49] S0: Consumer packaged goods, honestly.
01:48:49 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Ben Liu, Jasper Zhang, Mark Gurman
[01:48:49] S0: Consumer packaged goods, honestly. [01:48:51] S1: Oh, yeah. [01:48:51] S0: Like, there there has been, like, a [01:48:52] S1: new Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There's no new guests in Humble. [01:48:55] S6: They buy... Yeah. Yeah. [01:48:57] S1: They buy the protein company. They buy the supplement company. They buy the cereal company, but there's no one that's... And there's been super ambitious founders that have gone after it, but all of them That's right. With point solutions. Yeah. [01:49:08] S6: And and that... And to to your point, like, the second thing that's important is you take enough shots. Right? Because if you can only take three shots, you should sell for the reasons we discussed. But if you can begin to take more than 10 shots [01:49:17] S1: Yeah. [01:49:18] S6: Your expected value is three out [01:49:19] S4: of 10. [01:49:20] S6: Now we have AI systems, and humans have done better three out of 10, but it's better to underwrite considerably Sure. And and kind of exceed on the upside. Once you run 10 shots, you you expect three out of 10. Yeah. So what the fund allows us to do is take more shots, number one. And we can increase the throughput of also the industry, but it also allows us to raise capital and then always have to raise equity. [01:49:42] S7: Yeah. [01:49:42] S1: So it [01:49:42] S6: lowers our cost of capital over time. Yeah. And, you know, like, right, so you'll
01:49:42 · Ben Liu, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[01:49:42] S6: lowers our cost of capital over time. Yeah. And, you know, like, right, so you'll [01:49:46] S1: have, like, diversified cash flows so you can actually start scaling, like, the internal mechanism of the business. Like, the OpEx at an Amgen is what makes it a biotech biotech company, a big pharma company. It's not just that they have one... Yes. They have cash cow drugs, but they have a cash cow drug every ten years that cycles out so that they can actually sustain the business, get the headquarters, get the teams, get the, you know, the whole flow flowing. And if you're just like a one trick pony, a one hit wonder, you're gonna see this, you know, sort of up and down round tripping of your cash flow. [01:50:18] S0: Do you think public opinion do you think public opinion around pharma will be better or worse in ten years? [01:50:26] S6: I'm very optimistic it's gonna be a lot better, specifically because I think we're beginning to pursue drugs that just help you live longer and healthier. And you guys know about the GLP ones. GLP ones. [01:50:35] S1: You know, [01:50:36] S6: the two top GLP ones did more revenue than OpenAI and drop.com and also kinda did it profitably. And we think we're in early innings of things that just help you live longer and healthier. So things that help you walk longer [01:50:47] S1: Yeah. [01:50:47] S6: Like muscle. Right? Cartilage, bone density increases. [01:50:52] S1: Yeah.
01:50:52 · John Coogan, Ben Liu, Jordi Hays
[01:50:52] S1: Yeah. [01:50:52] S6: But I think you bring up a point. Like, biotech's really an efficient stay because, you know, you're you're really scaling with humans, and there's an opportunity to build AI systems that do the work work work of entire teams. And so a pharma company is a 100,000 people because in order to prosecute one idea, you need a team of people to go after that. And and so we built, like, AI systems that let you exhaustively look at every single drug and target indication pair, and then, you know, design the right try... Trials, run it kind of cheaper and faster. But you also don't have to create a separate team for each asset. And so biotechs today, like, you almost have to have, like, you know, a CMO, chief development officer, head of quality, and and and they're underleveraged in some ways. [01:51:29] S1: Sure. [01:51:29] S6: So if you can kind of have the best human talent with these AI systems, you can prosecute 10, 15, 20 [01:51:35] S1: Yeah. [01:51:35] S6: You know, 50 drugs and not have to be, you know, a 100,000 person company. It's a few 100 people. [01:51:41] S1: That's what we're really excited about. [01:51:43] S0: $100,000,000. Gong. Gong. [01:51:46] S1: Thank you so much for coming coming on the show. Congratulations. [01:51:49] S0: Final... Last last last question. [01:51:51] S1: This is fascinating. Please. Would [01:51:53] S0: you rather have 30,000 monkeys or 30,000 Bitcoin? [01:51:59] S6: I think the monkeys will ultimately...
01:51:59 · Ben Liu, Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Jasper Zhang, Amiram Shachar
[01:51:59] S6: I think the monkeys will ultimately... [01:52:04] S0: I think buy and hold the monkeys. Think they might I think they might... I think the monkey market might rip harder than... [01:52:10] S1: You think monkey... There... There's gonna be the flipping. [01:52:12] S0: Because... That's what they [01:52:12] S1: call it, flipping. [01:52:13] S0: With with crypto, you have so much, like, just, like, cyber risk right now whereas [01:52:18] S1: Oh, so if you're so if you're you're holding on a bored ape, you wanna get out of bored apes and get into real apes. [01:52:23] S4: Yeah. [01:52:23] S1: I think that might be the future. A lot of monkey business going on. Well, thank you so much for coming on the show. [01:52:28] S0: Very cool business, Ben. Have Coming back on soon. [01:52:30] S1: Rest of your day and congratulations. Goodbye. Up next, we are running a little bit late, but we're bringing in the cofounder and CEO of Upwind. We have Amiram. Welcome to the show. The first appearance with a massive Here he from Bessemer. How are doing? Welcome to the show. Please introduce yourself and the company. [01:52:49] S9: Hey, guys. Amiram here. Thank you for having me. Cofounder, CEO of Upwind. Yeah. Very glad to be here. [01:52:57] S1: Amazing. And, introduce the business. What is the elevator pitch, the logline these days? [01:53:02] S9: Upwind protects the cloud and AI for the world. Sure. There is a lot of cloud infrastructure out there, a lot of AI usage. [01:53:10] S1: Yeah.
01:53:10 · John Coogan, Amiram Shachar
[01:53:10] S1: Yeah. [01:53:11] S9: And Upwind has built a platform that secures all of it from the entire life cycle. We've been around since 2023 and growing fast. [01:53:22] S1: Super important. I can imagine you're growing very, very fast. What is the actual go to market motion like today? I mean, cybersecurity is on the top of everyone's mind. Ilya Sutskever is tweeting about how neo clouds need better cybersecurity. Is is it just, buy, buy, everyone just pulling every tool in, or are you actually going up against other cybersecurity firms for rip and replace? Are you additive? How do you plug in and just wind up achieving the mission of securing infrastructure more broadly? [01:53:55] S9: Yes. I think first is cybersecurity is having a big moment with AI. Yeah. Alright. Let's face it. Every, like, person is a hacker Yeah. With, like, open source models. Like, you get the damage you can create [01:54:08] S1: Yeah. [01:54:09] S9: And let alone, like, the people who really wanna create damage. Like, you know, a lot of enterprises are target for attackers. Yeah. We're, like, in a very, like, complex geopolitical situation in the world. So, like, there is a lot of things, like, that are happening on the cybersecurity front, and AI just makes it, like, stimulating it. [01:54:27] S1: Yeah.