Uncapped with Jack Altman
00:38:49 · Jack Altman, Ev Randle
[00:38:49] S0: We [00:38:50] S1: have Fireworks, we have Baseten, we have Modal. There's other ones that are good and all that stuff, they really are the three champions of the market, and I think we're going to see more consolidation to those three than less. So you have probably two or three companies at that time splitting $100,000,000,000 of revenue, which is incredible. Which is incredible. Mean, it [00:39:09] S0: means one of those companies could be worth $100,000,000,000 or more. [00:39:11] S1: Probably both. You have a $40,000,000,000 company. Even if it's 50% gross margin, it's probably a $200,000,000,000 company. You have hundreds of billions of enterprise value for open source, and then you have the trillions in Frontier Labs. And everyone is very happy with that. That's humongous companies all around, and it's through the synthesis of open source will always, on a revenue basis, be some percentage of frontier, and whatever that percentage is, there's so much room for the inference platforms to grow.
00:39:11 · Ev Randle, Jack Altman
[00:39:11] S1: Probably both. You have a $40,000,000,000 company. Even if it's 50% gross margin, it's probably a $200,000,000,000 company. You have hundreds of billions of enterprise value for open source, and then you have the trillions in Frontier Labs. And everyone is very happy with that. That's humongous companies all around, and it's through the synthesis of open source will always, on a revenue basis, be some percentage of frontier, and whatever that percentage is, there's so much room for the inference platforms to grow. [00:39:41] S0: By the way, and then we can move on from this, but a couple of years ago, I feel like there was a worry of, man, it seems like AI is either going to wake up the Terminator Sam god, and everything's going to be really bad. It's too good. Or it's just not going to matter that much. Crypto all over again, head fake. And at the moment and this is why I'm happy to see the market reacting positively to Anthropic. It's like at the moment, unless RSI takes us into a weird place, we might actually be splitting the middle landing, where the labs are extremely important, but they are not $60,000,000,000,000 companies, where it is not useless technology that doesn't help anybody. That's a nice thing. Seems like the happy path. It seems like the... I feel like my odd... My P happy path is higher than it used to be, and that's awesome. Amazing. Which is amazing. [00:40:39] S1: That's amazing. It's amazing. Do you wanna talk about bio? Obviously, you've you've got... I I feel like you've been really interested
00:40:39 · Ev Randle, Jack Altman
[00:40:39] S1: That's amazing. It's amazing. Do you wanna talk about bio? Obviously, you've you've got... I I feel like you've been really interested [00:40:46] S0: in robotics. You've Yeah. I have been. Mean, the... I was going to go to the dark place of cyber. We could do cyber first. Let's do cyber. Let's do [00:40:53] S1: cyber first. [00:40:53] S0: Because that would be that is one of the scary things. And this last week, there was the PHP thing, and people are very afraid, and understandably so. It does feel like we are in a point in time where one of the risks that is most imminently being expressed is a cyber risk, where we've spoken to some prominent CEOs in the last few weeks who have told us that they've pointed frontier models inward and said, hack us. And the model's like, I'm going to hack the shit out of you. [00:41:22] S1: And it does. They said that day after day, they were getting company ending vulnerabilities surfaced. Yes. That like if it had been actually hacked from an external force. [00:41:33] S0: And these are great companies with great Vulnerable companies. With great engineering [00:41:38] S1: teams. Like tech forward companies. These aren't like old companies.
00:41:38 · Ev Randle, Jack Altman
[00:41:38] S1: teams. Like tech forward companies. These aren't like old companies. [00:41:42] S0: Obviously, when you attack internally, you have crazy advantages that outside attackers don't have. You've got all the data. You've got the code base. It's just a different thing. But still, it seems like fear could be on the horizon, and then you see all this stuff. So obviously, it's probably it's a good time to be a security company. But it is also a scary it's a scary first exposure of real risk, I would say. 100%. Yeah. [00:42:08] S1: And I think that the really scary thing is that cyber attacks, at least for the public, I feel like cyber attacks historically have been sort of an abstract thing, where at worst, your data was what... Like, your password for this website was was hacked. And then you get, like, some notice in the mail, and you, like, you know, you change your password, like, nothing actually happens. Yeah. And recently, there's been a lot creepier and more things that feel really personally intrusive that are both now possible and have actually been happening. And so I pulled up a few examples where there was a researcher who used Claude to disable a webcam's recording indicator. Wow. So started recording without the light coming on and accessed the microphone and the firmware. [00:43:03] S0: That's scary.
00:43:03 · Jack Altman, Ev Randle
[00:43:03] S0: That's scary. [00:43:03] S1: All those things. Like, a French supermarket suffered an attack that manipulated refrigeration controls and actually spoiled food. So I think that the issue is that now the systems that we thought were secure, because these are open source systems that have existed for fifteen years with humans looking to patch them and hack them in all sorts of ways, these critical systems to firmware and hardware and the overall internet, these are now getting exposed that only have been able to be exposed via these AI models. [00:43:35] S0: Yeah, and you can patch the software, but can't really patch the hardware. Yeah. [00:43:37] S1: And so it's like, you know, people are like, oh, like, you know, like, update your smart TV. It's like, what the fuck? Yeah. Like, my TV [00:43:44] S0: What's wrong with the TV? [00:43:44] S1: Like, what... Like, you know, and they're like, oh, disconnect it from the Internet. Yeah. Like, well, that's really scary. [00:43:48] S0: Yeah. You have a Samsung frame. Smash it immediately.
00:43:48 · Jack Altman, Ev Randle
[00:43:48] S0: Yeah. You have a Samsung frame. Smash it immediately. [00:43:50] S1: Yeah. Like, yeah. Smash all of your smart devices in your home or disconnect it from the Internet. So I feel like it just feels so much more widespread and intrusive Mhmm. Than than before, which is why it's now sort of... Like, I I, you know, I definitely bought YubiKeys a couple of days ago. Like, I I wanna go through the whole... Actually, Andre Karpathy has a really good blog post on digital hygiene Yeah. And just things you should do. And I feel like for the first time, given the the parallelism and the scale that people can use and just the extent to which these things that we're seeing as strongholds like PHP are being hacked, it's like, Okay, this is for real. I think the really interesting thing there's one other piece of the cyber thing is this idea of obliterated models. [00:44:34] S0: Mhmm.