00:14:22 · Saurav Shroff, Ty Morse
The other reusable rocket makers are not selling services, then the game theory optimal to sit... The game theory optimal choice for them is the same. My rocket works. I have no incentive to sell it. Scale AI data sets because super intelligence is valuable. Then if another company builds rockets that it works, their logic is the same. So it's it's for this future that we're worried. [00:14:45] S0: So, basically it's never optimal for any of these companies to sell launch once?
00:14:49 · Saurav Shroff
[00:14:49] S1: Yeah. On- on an instantaneous And basis, this is as soon as multiple companies start selling launch, this dynamic changes. So, really you just need two companies that are selling launch, and for a long time we thought the launch market is gonna be solved because SpaceX sells launch, so it just takes one other person or company to come along and also sell launch. So, you sold launch, we'd be in good shape. But we went from one hoping for two, down to zero hoping for one, but when we're at zero, nobody wants to be the first. And so, our solution to this problem is, it's very simple, and this will be my first time saying this on record, which is that we have a date in the back of our heads, where if the launch market doesn't fix itself, we're gonna go build a launch company. And, the reason that we have to do it is because, we want our customers to be successful. So for those who are listening, who haven't had... Who don't know about us, we supply mass produced components, including the world's lightest space solar panel to companies building satellites, including those building AI data centers in space. And because we want our customers to be successful, and because they have no way of being successful in the present world, there's date in the back of our head, and there is a clock that is ticking towards that date. And if something doesn't change, like SpaceX entering the market, or multiple players competitively bidding large volume launch contracts, and offering reasonable prices like 200, 300, or heck $500 a kilogram, we will go build the launch company and sell that product. And and and the reason is for the betterment of the world. Because we think super intelligence is something that everybody should have, not just a couple of companies.
00:16:33 · Ty Morse
[00:16:33] S0: When you're thinking through the decision to... Like, this business alone is hard enough. Like, it's very, very difficult to build one space company. How did you kind of map the logic in your head for even thinking about doing a launch company as well?
00:16:51 · Saurav Shroff
[00:16:51] S1: So first of all, I don't wanna understate the difficulty. Like there's a phrase, it's not rocket science, and that phrase exists for a reason because rocket science... Well, rocket science isn't actually that hard, but rocket engineering and manufacturing is extremely challenging. I would say it's like, it's less math and more logic, and you said, did you math the logic? There wasn't a lot of math, there was mostly logic. I mean, a little bit of math, like, okay, what would rocket look like? How big would it be? Where would you launch it from? These types of questions, but it's mostly logic, like, the the logic is like, okay, super intelligence is being made. You could make a bet that it doesn't need to scale, in which case we have no problems, right? We don't need to scale, the ground is sufficient, Deploy all your data centers on the ground. Every sappy. Okay. That that would be one bet. That doesn't really seem very likely. In the more likely case, where we do need to scale, the ground doesn't work, space becomes better, And then if you just go through the logic of what happens in that scenario, which seems to me like the likely scenario, it's quite grim. It's like, you have this like sort of standoffish market with like massive companies, and I'm not against big companies, okay, I'm not socialist, but I am against like, futures where technologies are... Don't... Aren't... Like important technologies aren't competed. Right? Like like, I mean, you could get a little political and make some comments about like Medicare and stuff, like, I don't need to. Like, if superintelligence is good enough to do most people's jobs and, you know, society looks like a society that's, like, supported by UBI, like, do you want that superintelligence to be owned by one company that is, like, effectively in government? Like, I'm not saying that will happen or that that's anybody's intention. I'm saying, I don't think we want that. And I looked around. I asked every launch company how much launch they would sell me and for how much, discovered that the market is completely fucked, and, wanted to do something about it. And and and and it's not like I have. I'm just sounding the alarm that it's a problem.
00:18:54 · Ty Morse
[00:18:54] S0: There's this, funny line, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. Yeah. And I got to imagine that the AI data center punch is effectively both, like, a great blessing and a great curse, which is there's, like, infinite demand in space for solar panels. And ironically, you will not be able to put any of your solar panels up in space. So how did you kind of go through the period where you realized this was kind of a fact, and how did you kind of change direction in that period?
00:19:25 · Saurav Shroff
[00:19:25] S1: Well, I mean, I basically told you everything that... Like, I I basically stepped through a 100% of the logic already. And, the more graphic answer is, a friend of mine who probably will know I'm referring to him, but I can't name him by name, asked me some questions, but that that that led me to reconsider my opinion. Okay. So so just for some context, three months ago, I didn't think this was a problem. I was like, yeah, of course, Starship is the best rocket ever made. It's so amazing. Like, it's gonna create infinite supply. And I still believe... I literally still believe that, that Starship is the best rocket ever made, and that it will create pseudo infinite supply of launch services. SpaceX has proven themselves as a ruthlessly competent executor. So three months ago, I thought, fine. You know, build... You you need to build for the biggest possible scale, which is what we're doing here, and which we haven't stopped by the way. It's not like we changed our plans. And we need a big... Build for that big scale because superintelligence is coming that's gonna drive insane demand, and you you you need to be able to service it. And my friend asked me a few questions that led me to reconsider this belief. Led me to consider for the first time, hey, what if actually the incentives work out such that despite having pseudo infinite supply, none is available. Okay. What about a concept? Right? It's like it's like imagine imagine, you know, imagine like a banana plantation, but you're starving. It's confusing. And I stepped through the logic, and I was like, you know, it might actually be the case that we are starving on a banana plantation. And then I asked the banana plantation owners, so to speak, okay, the companies, the rocket companies, you know, what they would sell me and at what price, and discovered that in fact we will soon be starving on the banana plantation, proverbially. And so graphically, what happened is took a deep breath, opened a spreadsheet, and started designing a