Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders (ETL)
00:44:22 · Michael Bernstein
[00:44:22] S2: Yeah. Exogenous shocks are a little bit different than a tipping point, but generally I think what I take your question to be asking is when does a product go from out there to now everyone's expecting everyone else to use it? That requires simulation that is longitudinal, like over time. Remember that the world is not predetermined. It's not like I've produced some crystal ball that's going to call exactly what's going to happen. What I should be able to do is give you the space, like the distribution of likely outcomes. How likely is this to happen or that to happen? What are the accelerants? What are the decelerants on that? And I think that helps people, again, if they can interactively play with this, they can build an intuition for what's really driving things. So, I mean, these kinds of tipping point behaviors, mean, it's a collective action thing. There are very clear closed form models that predict this, but what we want to do on our side is actually we want it to be an outcome of having trained our model to predict literally everything else about human behavior. Some of the first things that Joon did when he was doing some of the research is he found that he could recreate the sort of link structure of the web or recreate studies of social influence where songs become popular. These are all things that you should be able to test your simulation and prove that we can recreate even if you're not tipping the scales to say it should do that. Yeah. This is why our paper was originally... One thing that went viral about our paper was that the agents threw a Valentine's Day party. Right? We had inserted literally one memory into one agent saying, hey, you're interested in planning a Everything else from there, where word got out and then one agent asked another one out on a date and this kind of stuff, that was all emergence. That was the entire point. We didn't tip the scales.
00:46:08 · S5, Ravi Belani, Michael Bernstein, Beckett
[00:46:08] S5: Okay. Thank you very much. [00:46:09] S1: Cheers. We'll do a final question. And again, please don't talk if you can. We can hear it up here. [00:46:14] S2: Except you. You can talk. Yeah. [00:46:16] S1: Yeah. [00:46:16] S6: Hi. I'm Beckett. And for the fourth level of simulation you're talking about with the world, like, dynamic world Yeah. I was wondering how you guys would think about approaching that, because I would assume as there'd be some small errors that would accumulate over time, and also what kind of time scales you guys are thinking about simulating with this dynamic world. [00:46:34] S2: Yeah. I mean, I think we want to be as ambitious as possible, but again, trust is the ultimate thing. Right? And when you're talking about emergent multi agent simulation, you're like, how would you validate it? Because the world only unrolls one way. Right? So maybe you predicted something else, but maybe you're not wrong. Maybe that was as equally likely. There are different ways you can trust this. One is to say, look. [00:47:02] S1: Fifteen seconds. [00:47:04] S2: You can make the individuals so accurate that you don't get a game of telephone. The other way is that you take the complex systems thing and just think of it as phase changes. There might be errors, but are they so big that they would change the phase, like, you know, that the solid becomes a gas?
00:47:04 · Michael Bernstein, Ravi Belani, S0
[00:47:04] S2: You can make the individuals so accurate that you don't get a game of telephone. The other way is that you take the complex systems thing and just think of it as phase changes. There might be errors, but are they so big that they would change the phase, like, you know, that the solid becomes a gas? [00:47:20] S1: Interesting. Fifteen seconds. Thank you. That was fantastic. Thank you, everybody, for Thank your you, Michael, for that awesome share, for all the insights. And we'll see you again next week where we're gonna be talking about math and AI. [00:47:33] S0: Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders series is an original production of Stanford eCorner and the Stanford Technology Ventures Program. To learn more, please visit us at stvp.stanford.edu/ecorner.