Bloomberg Talks
00:02:28 · Dani Burger, Ralph Schlosstein, Isabelle Lee
[00:02:28] S2: Today. and it's still a country with incredible growth, too. We see that in all the figures. This idea, Ralph, that this was a vote for moderation, for a more centric government, I just wonder how that also squares, though, with this big pull from the left, with very far left candidates upsetting in the primaries, winning their elections last night. Does that sort of change the dynamic, at least for those coming in, and just how center this current Democratic Party looks? [00:02:56] S0: Well, I would say that in reality, they get a lot of publicity, but they're a very small minority of the Democratic caucus in the House and in the Senate. We have exactly... one Democratic senator who ran with a somewhat more left than I would be comfortable with. And so that's out of 54 or 55 or 56. In the House, I think you have 12 or 15 senators It looks like there are going to be somewhere on the order of 250 Democratic House members. So you've got literally somewhere between five, six, seven percent of the caucus. And very importantly, Hakeem Jeffries, who will be the new speaker, can actually get the majority of his caucus to go for something without any of those members. So I think the size of the victory in the House gives Speaker Jeffries a lot of flexibility that he might not have otherwise hoped for, and certainly more than Speaker Johnson had in the previous Congress. [00:04:14] S1: Do you think the results we saw overnight is a preview of what 2028 could look like?
00:04:14 · Isabelle Lee, Ralph Schlosstein, Dani Burger
[00:04:14] S1: Do you think the results we saw overnight is a preview of what 2028 could look like? [00:04:19] S0: Well, I think the Democrats in the Congress have a really important decision to make. There are two temptations. The first, which I very strongly support, is put on your policy hats, pass legislation that's important and relevant to the things that the American people care about. Energy prices, food prices. housing availability, health care availability. And the president may compromise on some of those. He may veto some of those. But I am a democratically inclined business person. That's what I hope we do. There will be some who are tempted to have a little bit of a more investigative approach persecution-oriented, because obviously we've seen a period of time when the Justice Department has been weaponized a bit in the eyes of many. And there's a temptation to respond to that somewhat in like kind. I truly hope that the Democrats in Congress resist that and that they focus on doing the right things for the American people. [00:05:44] S2: When it comes to the fiscal trajectory of this United States, it's something you've long spoken out against and you're concerned there. That's one of the things that notably wasn't on the ballot, deficit spending. Maybe the bond market has fits and starts about what it cares. If it cares about that bond market notably rallying today. Is there anything that puts a brake on this Congress? Again, especially because that was not on the ballot. They came in with no one talking about deficit spending in the United States.
00:05:44 · Dani Burger, Ralph Schlosstein
[00:05:44] S2: When it comes to the fiscal trajectory of this United States, it's something you've long spoken out against and you're concerned there. That's one of the things that notably wasn't on the ballot, deficit spending. Maybe the bond market has fits and starts about what it cares. If it cares about that bond market notably rallying today. Is there anything that puts a brake on this Congress? Again, especially because that was not on the ballot. They came in with no one talking about deficit spending in the United States. [00:06:09] S0: Well, if I have a concern about the next couple of years, I think our fiscal trajectory is totally unsustainable. It will end. I've often said this. It will end. When it ends, it will end badly. I just don't know what will precipitate that and when it will happen. If you look back historically at periods of divided government, particularly centered around the fiscal policy and budgets, the method of compromise between the Democrats and the Republicans has very often been no new taxes for the Republicans and some more spending for the Democrats. That would obviously exacerbate the concern that I already have. I think it's a very low probability, but what would be a remarkable thing would be if we actually had something along the lines of, I don't think you could do a real Simpson-Bowles, but a mini Simpson-Bowles where there's an acknowledgement on both sides of the aisle that we have to start bending the curve on our fiscal trajectory.
00:06:09 · Ralph Schlosstein, Dani Burger
[00:06:09] S0: Well, if I have a concern about the next couple of years, I think our fiscal trajectory is totally unsustainable. It will end. I've often said this. It will end. When it ends, it will end badly. I just don't know what will precipitate that and when it will happen. If you look back historically at periods of divided government, particularly centered around the fiscal policy and budgets, the method of compromise between the Democrats and the Republicans has very often been no new taxes for the Republicans and some more spending for the Democrats. That would obviously exacerbate the concern that I already have. I think it's a very low probability, but what would be a remarkable thing would be if we actually had something along the lines of, I don't think you could do a real Simpson-Bowles, but a mini Simpson-Bowles where there's an acknowledgement on both sides of the aisle that we have to start bending the curve on our fiscal trajectory. [00:07:20] S2: Do you think the bond market could force markets to do that? Again, notably not reacting today, but it has this year had past episodes that has gotten the attention of this government. [00:07:28] S0: Yeah, I ultimately believe it will be the bond market that is the trigger but it will be something else that triggers the bond market. It won't be the bond market alone.
00:07:28 · Ralph Schlosstein, Dani Burger
[00:07:28] S0: Yeah, I ultimately believe it will be the bond market that is the trigger but it will be something else that triggers the bond market. It won't be the bond market alone. [00:07:39] S2: You were getting into this before. Part of the reason that a lot of corporate America has said we are going all out with M & A is because it's a more friendly regulatory environment. You were saying that you expect companies, basically, they're now having a two-year ticking clock. Is that fair to say that we don't know what's going to happen in 2028? This is still favorable. Let's get deals done.
00:07:39 · Dani Burger, Ralph Schlosstein
[00:07:39] S2: You were getting into this before. Part of the reason that a lot of corporate America has said we are going all out with M & A is because it's a more friendly regulatory environment. You were saying that you expect companies, basically, they're now having a two-year ticking clock. Is that fair to say that we don't know what's going to happen in 2028? This is still favorable. Let's get deals done. [00:07:57] S0: Yeah, I think you have to look at the fact that a huge amount of what business deals with is not adjudicated in the legislative world. It's adjudicated in the regulatory world, which is controlled by the executive branch. So if you look, if you're sitting here today as a business person, you're going to say, well, the political world has gone a fair amount more democratic, which traditionally has involved more regulation, more antitrust oversight. But the executive world still has two years to go. And I basically, even before this, nobody would have anticipated the degree of the blue victory here. But even before that, and it's not clear to me that this changes what I said earlier, which is if you look at what Trump has done in his first two years, there's only one piece of meaningful legislation, the big, beautiful bill. Everything else he has done by executive order, by fiat, and the really only check and balance on him has been the courts. And in some cases, he's ignored that.