No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups
00:08:07 · Elad Gil, Glenn Fogel
[00:08:07] S1: Yeah. Because, you know, when I look at it right now, some companies clearly have enormous revenue bases. You know, OpenAI and Anthropic are rumored to have 30,000,000,000 to $50,000,000,000 in revenue run rate each. And, in parallel, see companies that are extremely highly valued, 10,000,000,000, etcetera, that don't necessarily have even revenue yet. And if you look at the Internet era, I think it was something like four fifty companies went public in 'ninety nine, four fifty went public in the first few months of 2000, maybe 500 went public before that. So you had 1,500 companies of which, what, two dozen are left at most? Maybe. The other fourteen eighty are gone. And so do you think the same thing will happen to the AI set set of companies? Do you think something different will happen? Like and those aren't IPOs, by the way. Those are the very strongest or perceived to be strongest companies. Right? [00:08:56] S0: Right. Well, I I I wouldn't wanna even guess at what the ratio of success to failures will be this time around versus that time versus any other time when there was incredible boom. And, you know, if we go over the last hundred and fifty years, there always been these kind of springing further back. Yeah. Speculative booms that create tremendous innovation, people coming in just both money and people. I mean, California, you know, the forty niners, I mean, everybody's running off to the hills to gold, and it was gonna rain. I'm sure there were a lot of companies selling axes and hammers. [00:09:37] S1: Yeah. Auto boom, same thing. We've seen
00:09:37 · Elad Gil, Glenn Fogel
[00:09:37] S1: Yeah. Auto boom, same thing. We've seen [00:09:40] S0: this Exactly. And how many of So I don't know, but this is not new. And there'll be a great deal of disappointment. There'll be a lot of people who gonna lose a lot of money, of course. That's just the nature of how our economy is working. When they're in speculative bubbles, that will bring all up, but that doesn't mean that there aren't a lot of companies. That's a real value it's gonna make. [00:10:02] S1: How do you think as a founder running a company or as a CEO, you should make the decision in terms of whether to keep going or whether to sell? It's kind of like, okay, Priceline is worth a couple $100,000,000, and the decision was made, we'll keep going no matter what. And there may or may not have been options in terms of exits. I have no idea. But in today's era, there's quite a few options in terms of exits. Should people mainly be thinking about exiting right now, do you think? Do you think they should keep going?
00:10:26 · Glenn Fogel
[00:10:26] S0: Yeah. I think that's right. I don't think we can give a general rule without knowing what the facts of that specific situation are. By the way, there were times early in the day where price would have been happy if somebody has made an offer. I mean, look. Yeah. Yeah. Offer. It really depends a lot on what the situation is, how confident is management and people who have put the money in that which there is going to be a vulture, and how concerned are you? What are you really trying to do? Are trying to accomplish something? The goal is to actually make something that matters, or are you just here to make money? And nothing wrong with that. I'm not against that. You just gotta understand what is your motivation. What are you trying to achieve? We have on average, I don't know if you're American male, for the hell of a because I think that's what I've looked at. I have a seventy eight year expected lifespan when you're born. Of course, the longer you live, the higher you expect. Whatever it is, and how are you gonna spend those years? What is important to you? What do you wanna do? What's the meaning to it? And I'll let the people who are actually involved in those situations. I would not I would not give them any general advice.
00:11:33 · Elad Gil
[00:11:33] S1: Makes sense. So, I mean, back to booking. One of the categories that you all obviously are really crucial to is travel. And there's a number of the next gen sort of AI companies who've started experimenting with things like OpenAI, had, checkout and ChatGPT, and, you know, one of the main use cases was travel, and then they canceled that feature. And I think at the time, booking went up 8% on the news. What what do you think didn't work there? What what do you think how do you think people should think about travel through the lens of AI?
00:12:08 · Glenn Fogel
[00:12:08] S0: So I think we should back up a little bit so everybody understands what's going on here. So in any type of situation, you'll have people who are not that knowledgeable about the industry or about how, things actually happen in the business. And so from the outside, it looked rather easy to, oh, this will be easy. AI will take care of travel, and all the travel companies won't be worthwhile, won't be worth anything. And so and that was why companies like ourselves took a big hit as some of the new models were dropped that had a much better way of doing agent in commerce as it was perceived at the time. And then when the when people make analysis, oh, we're not gonna do that, like when OpenAI said, we're not planning to be a merchant of record trying to or we're not even gonna keep in this app type of way of doing commerce. We're not doing it. Then people say, oh, well, I was wrong. I'm not gonna worry about it as much. It flips the other side. The truth is the way we look at AI is an incredible, beneficial tool and a way for us to be able to do our mission easier, hopefully cheaper, and better for our customers. All business. What is the purpose of a business? A business is to do something of value to its customers. We have two kinds of customers. We've got travelers and we've got partners. Are in the middle of that for a marketplace. How can we do it better? AI, particularly AI using, large language models and other things like that can help make it a much more valuable method for people, travelers to get information they need to do what they wanna do and beneficial to our partners. That's the thing. Now the idea of chat TV, you know, telling me no longer having one method. I mean, I wouldn't read too much into that one way or the other. Mhmm.
00:14:08 · Elad Gil
[00:14:08] S1: Yeah. That makes sense. You know, it's interesting because I'm in the middle of Silicon Valley where people are very AGI pills. Right? People strongly believe that AI will drive all sorts of things, in some cases, will. And in some cases, it'll take longer. In some cases, it won't. You know, it reminds me a little bit of crypto where crypto was gonna solve everything, and it didn't, but it was very important for certain aspects of the financial system. And I think stablecoins and other things are increasingly viable there. On the AI side, what a lot of people are really moving towards is more agentic work, and that could be specific companies like Decagon having agents to do customer support. But it's also the larger platforms like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etcetera, providing increasingly self driven systems, codecs or Cloud Cowork or, you know, some of the things Gemini is doing. And one of the arguments people are making is that the nature of UI is gonna change, and you're gonna have agents doing transactions on your behalf and sourcing things like trips or figuring out your travel itinerary for you or buying or purchasing the actual different aspects of travel? A, do you think that's a correct vision of the world? And, b, do you think or how do you view that interacting with booking and what you all provide as a service?