00:48:39 · Ryan Petersen
[00:48:39] S1: You can do it during the summer. And, only a couple ships a year go through container ships a year, but but you can do it now. And you could track them on Atlas plug for a Flexport product atlas.flexport.com. You can see, you can see when the ships going through there, mostly Chinese container ships doing that. And so, but that is the, the, the explicit promise of globalization as it was built under the American order is like the Navy will secure the straits, secure the choke points. And we've been tested now since December of 'twenty three, where we sent an entire carrier group and couldn't stop the Yemenis from hitting container ships and oil tankers in the Red Sea. And now since March 1 or end of February, been unable to reopen the Strait Of Malacca... Oh, sorry, the Strait Of Hormuz. And it's a giant question of does the... Okay. So how does trade reorder around this? First of all, it's gonna lead to huge energy boom, and it is already with The US hitting all time export highs. Were already the biggest exporter in the world of oil, and now we've hit all time highs, like basically every week since March 1. So on net, it might be good for American GDP. We're pumping so much oil and exporting it to become the dominant energy power. I think from Trump's agenda standpoint, yeah, like, he didn't like this order famously, right, of hollowing out industry and opening our markets and, for what? What do we get in exchange from this? I think he's asked, been asking that since he came onto the scene. And so if you look at his policies, yeah, like people are like, oh, he screwed this up. Like, did he, but not from his parade. He doesn't care about the story. We don't buy oil from there. Our trading partners do. Our... The Europeans do.
00:50:32 · Ty Morse, Ryan Petersen
[00:50:32] S0: Is the Strait Of Hormuz being closed actually like a benefit to our ability to, like, export goods? [00:50:39] S1: For oil, for sure. [00:50:40] S0: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Like, is that is that big enough of a benefit to make it make sense to not really worry about it opening up any faster?
00:50:46 · Ryan Petersen
[00:50:46] S1: Who you are. I mean, there's winners and losers, but it's, like, hugely beneficial for Texas and the Texas oil economy. And, you know, if you're a college football fan, the NIL budgets for these Texas football schools are gonna go through the roof. So there are winners in this, not to make light of it. En masse, I mean, I think it's making the same mistake that AOC makes of thinking that it's a fixed pie and like, okay, maybe America takes a bigger stake of the pie, but like the pie is gonna shrink. Like if you lose 20% of oil and everything that falls out from that, you're gonna have a smaller economy worldwide. You're gonna have a lot of suffering. We'll see. Made predictions that with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, that you would have... Because 50% of the world's... It's not 50%, but they're the biggest grain exporters in the world, Russia and Ukraine. And that coming offline, I thought was going lead to massive famine across Africa. I said that publicly, I was wrong because Russian grain never stopped. And they're also big exporters of fertilizer. The Middle East picked up the slack and started exporting crazy amounts of fertilizer. So the world's pretty resilient. America produced a lot of food. And so, yeah, the economy is this crazy complex adaptive system that's hard to predict and is like more resilient than you expect, but also complex adaptive systems are very, very resilient until they break down and fail. Like we're playing with fire with the Strait Of Hormuz. And so I don't think, I don't think it's, I think it's way too simplistic to say, look, Texas energy, American energy exports are through the roof. We are dominating the world energy markets to an extent we never have, not since the Rockefeller days, like, because because of this. From a power projection standpoint, maybe if you're Trump, that's what you care about more than what's overall, like, economic output in the world. But I think it's a kind of a fixed pie mentality that's like...
00:52:43 · Ty Morse, Ryan Petersen
[00:52:43] S0: It's not great. [00:52:43] S1: It's great. It's not great. Not as a business person. Like, nobody should support this if you're trying to do business.