Bloomberg Talks
00:03:11 · Tom Keene, Claudia Sahm, Paul Sweeney
[00:03:11] S2: Claudia, I see two Americas. I see a boom with revisions, 249,000, boom number on nonfarm payrolls. And I see the green span underemployment rate going from a 7.6% up to 7.9%. Is this a fully employed America? [00:03:33] S0: The labor market has had this really uncomfortable, curious balance of the low hiring, but the low firing, right? So it really still is a difficult environment if you are looking for a job or a better job to get that. But people are holding on to their jobs, which is a good thing, right? The layoff rate is low. It's very unusual. So I think it does give this view of like there's two sides two Americas in the labor market. And there's some truth to that. But we do like to see, I mean, the payroll numbers, surprise to the upside. You know, as I said before, we've seen some big surprises like this earlier in the year, and then they ebb away. You know, so I've got to see some months of this before I'm really convinced we're seeing an acceleration of the labor market. But, you know, good news is good news. And the unemployment rate, the overall unemployment rate did tick down with participation going up. So, like, that's a good setup. So we're going to take the good where we have it. But we have been head faked by this labor market in terms of acceleration several times this year. [00:04:36] S2: Paul, am I right? Kevin Hassett of the White House will be with Bloomberg? [00:04:40] S1: Yes. [00:04:40] S0: Nine-ish? Yes. [00:04:41] S1: We're going to have him and we'll get his thoughts here. [00:04:43] S2: Paul Sweeney with Claudia Sahm.
00:04:43 · Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Claudia Sahm
[00:04:43] S2: Paul Sweeney with Claudia Sahm. [00:04:45] S1: Average hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis, Claudia Sahm, came in a little bit better than expected at 3.1%. Are you surprised that number's not even higher given how tight The labor market is, why can't I walk into my boss and say, I need 10% increase if you want. [00:04:58] S0: To keep me? Well, I think the boss will be like, good luck. Find that job. I mean, that's the thing right now. And I watch really carefully the quit rate. So we did get an update on Jolt's this week. And there was a little tick up, but it's still pretty low. And that's a good sign of the bargaining power. If workers are out there quitting to get better jobs, that's when they have the leverage for the higher wages. It just does, it's just not there right now. If you don't have hiring being strong, the workers just don't have that ability to bargain. [00:05:27] S2: Can we like do like, there's no recession talk, but can we do like Claudia Sahm wheelhouse here? [00:05:33] S1: Sure. [00:05:34] S2: Claudia Sahm wheelhouse, folks. She's famed for looking at how an economy slows. Let's go to the opposite way, Claudia Sahm. When you studied at Michigan, you never, never thought about a sustained 6%. or more nominal GDP. How do you presume with our new politics that we will bring in this boom economy constructively?
00:05:34 · Tom Keene, Claudia Sahm, Paul Sweeney
[00:05:34] S2: Claudia Sahm wheelhouse, folks. She's famed for looking at how an economy slows. Let's go to the opposite way, Claudia Sahm. When you studied at Michigan, you never, never thought about a sustained 6%. or more nominal GDP. How do you presume with our new politics that we will bring in this boom economy constructively? [00:06:01] S0: So, you know, there's a lot of pieces to that. I do think going back to the question about immigration policy, labor force policy, like I'm less looking at, you know, the downturn in the labor market, but I am worried about some of the structural pieces of the labor market. And I think without a growing labor force, it's going to be hard to really consistently have those GDP gains. I mean, I am optimistic about some of our technology improvements on the horizon, but But that is really tough to string together quarter after quarter, year after year, improvements in productivity growth, right? And so I think you've got to have a multi-pronged approach in terms of the policy. Hanging our hats on AI is not the way to go in terms of really wanting to keep those strong growth numbers. I think there are some structural pieces on the labor market that deserve attention and may very well get some attention given the election results this week. [00:06:54] S1: Labor force participation rate, again, a little bit better, 61.9%. Where's a healthy number? Like, what should we be looking for? Is that a good number, 61.9? Should it be higher or lower?
00:06:54 · Paul Sweeney, Claudia Sahm, Tom Keene
[00:06:54] S1: Labor force participation rate, again, a little bit better, 61.9%. Where's a healthy number? Like, what should we be looking for? Is that a good number, 61.9? Should it be higher or lower? [00:07:04] S0: Yeah, I mean, it is hard. You know, work is onerous, right? We don't want 100. People should have a choice as to what they do. I think given the fact that we have so much aging of the workforce, probably keeping a focus on. [00:07:17] S2: The prime age. [00:07:18] S0: Watch yourself. Yeah, I know. I'd say, well, you know, people should get to retire at some point if they want to. At some point. But I think looking at the prime age statistics, which have been really pretty solid, but there's always, you know, there's the separation of like we look month to month, quarter to quarter at the labor market. And then there's the big picture. I mean, we've had some demographic groups that for decades have been puzzling, like Men, prime age working, used to all work, and there's been declines over many decades. So then there's questions about why is that happening? But that's not this near-term discussion. So I don't have a ready answer of what's the right number because it depends on people and their lives. [00:08:01] S2: Spearheading our labor coverage, I should say. Claudia is with us. Thank you. Thank you so much this morning. Look for her publications and, of course, wonderful out on Twitter and particularly on LinkedIn.