The Pomp Podcast
00:12:13 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:12:13] S3: What is that? [00:12:13] S2: 73 to 74. Almost got there overnight. I don't think people should just sit there and think that, okay, everything is fine. We went through the hacking. We're gonna turn back up. This has been very correlated over the past month and a half to the AI trade. And whether people accept that or not, a chart of semiconductors now in Bitcoin has been one for one for the most part. The other point of this, which I brought up in a video this week, is a index of oil and tenure rates has also been correlated to it. So I think we've been going through, as I keep saying in my weekly weekend videos, there's been a horrible trading environment from anyone who's trying to sustain moves for longer than say a month and a half. You had to make your money in a very small window this year in the first half of the year, and then since then, it's been a lot of back and forth and just a lot of mud, and that's in all the major assets. I I think we're still in it until we get a catalyst. There may be a catalyst next week with quarterly refunding announcement, but other than that, I think we're just kind of grinding through.
00:13:16 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:13:16] S3: Today's episode is brought to you by FitNexa. Most of us, we spend all day in meetings, on calls, traveling. We got all kinds of things going on in our brain. And then we get in bed at the end of the day, and we just expect our brains to shut off and fall asleep immediately. But that's not how it works. And take someone like me. I live in New York City. There are things like trucks, sirens, and people yelling outside at two in the morning. And when I'm traveling, it could be a hotel room or a noisy street as well. That's why I wanna tell you about the FitNexa Somni Pods three. You take them and you put them right into your ear right before you go to sleep. They offer up to 42 decibels of total noise reduction, which is useful when I'm trying to sleep and the room around me will not cooperate. Instead of lying there, listening to every truck or every noise in the room, I can use them to reduce what's actually keeping me awake. But reducing the noise only helps if I can actually sleep in them. And I don't want to wear some bulky earbud that's pressing into my pillow or becoming the next thing that keeps me awake. SomniPods 3 are ultra thin, so I turn onto my side and I'm not figuring out how to deal with earbuds all night long. These come with a thirty night trial. So go over to fitnexa.com and use code POMP 10 to get $10 off your first order. That's fitnexa.com. Use code Pomp 10. Let's get to the mud in one second. But, one one other aspect that, I think is interesting. Four years ago, almost to the week, was the FTX collapse. 2022 was in November. There's midterms. There's a lot of similarities. That was the final puke down to, you know, $1,516,000 dollars. Mhmm. Marked the bottom of the bear market, and then we went up from there. It does feel like although most people think that we bottomed, and I probably think we did as well, it's kinda like, in a firefight. You know that the other guy's got x number of bullets. He's got 10 bullets. He shot eight of them. He had two left. Mhmm. The hack was number nine. He's still got one left, which is probably the midterms. And then once he fires that last bullet, you're kinda like, alright, man. You don't get anything left. I can come... You know, here we go. If that is true, then actually we are, I don't know, a week away from all of this noise, uncertainty, mud, etcetera, kinda just, okay.
00:15:30 · Anthony Pompliano
We've set in the foundation to leg up higher. Would you buy into that
00:15:33 · Jordi Visser
[00:15:33] S2: thesis, or are you still a little more cautious? I... I'm... So I had not, except for a small Micron purchase during July or August, whenever, but during the the situational awareness situation. In the last week, week and a half, I've made purchases in AI names three or four times, three or four days, only into panic, which again, luckily we keep getting them, but the reason is because a lot of things happen this week. Last week felt like panic to me on Thursday, which is why I I went in, but this week, first of all, Anthropic released their s one. It was definitely better than what people feared, and you could kind of read through it and get to more than a 100,000,000,000 if you want to in terms of AR, assuming you make the leap that based on what they put in there, they're gonna be telling you that the October numbers since Opus 5.5 went up. But regardless, that is out of the way. So people have been worried about what Anthropic would be. Now we have to get through the IPO, but again, that's coming soon. Oracle had an Investor Day. This might be the most important news point that no one seemed to mention or care about. If you ask me when the mud started, and again, for anyone who's trading, we've been in mud since September of last year, meaning every time you go up, you come back down, every time you go up, you go back down. It's been in a grinding bull market, but a very, very difficult painful one. You just look at the Nvidia chart. September of last year is when the capital raise effectively started. And the reason I say that is because Oracle made their highs on this massive day where they had massive RPOs, which is basically what the hyperscalers have as well. Meaning, we have these orders that we're gonna get in the future. The reason Oracle is so important and is not mentioned, is this week in their investor day, they laid out, hey, We're not gonna have to raise much money between now and 2030. Now that may not mean much to people, but Oracle's raised over $60,000,000,000 since that September last year. People have questioned them. Their debt was the first one to be an issue. Their CDS started widening out, and this is when the mud started. So for everyone who's trying to find, like, when is this gonna end?
00:17:44 · Jordi Visser
I actually think the capital raise has been a huge part, but not the capital raise in general because the AI capital raise is gonna happen. But it's been very concentrated with basically five names, and they've come to the market for a lot of debt. Most of that debt was q four of last year, q one of this year, q two, q three. Q one, q two, q three were actually declining in terms of going to the public markets. You still have some going on. Microsoft did some this week. SpaceX did, but SpaceX did it with... Through the private markets through Apollo and SPV. Very different, and there's a lot of powder there. So we've had this concentrated capital raise where I've calculated the numbers. You've done over a trillion dollars this year between equity and debt. That has been one of the mud issues, and I think that has been the major issue with the rates moving higher. So now you have ten year rates, which have moved down this week as well. Remember how much everyone was worried about ten year rates? Remember how much everyone was worried about breath? Equal weight S and P has ripped higher. In fact, this month, people won't realize this, but as we sit here, the S and P is about flat for the month again. But I think nine of the 11 secondtors are up, and as I looked yesterday, this is before this morning, but I still think it's gonna be good, 350 of the S and P 500 names, 350 of 500, that's 70%. We're up at least 2% for the month. Only 70 were down 2%. That's a five to one ratio. And that means that in a in a period where we're worried about breath, where we're worried about rates, rates started to come down and what happened, the names that were getting hit because rates were going higher came back down. I bring all this up because you know what's rolling off next year? And I'll show all this this weekend. You're gonna get the tariff stuff, which is gonna roll off. So all of the rate hikes that were part of the PCE and part of... In general. Goldman has put this out saying they expect about a 100 basis point drop in PCE core next year purely because of the base effects. DRAM prices have already rolled over, not in a nominal basis, but on a year over year basis, the second derivative, which is what inflation is... Has rolled over. You're gonna have gas at the pump. It's gonna be the exact same thing. Meaning, we had a huge spike in oil.
00:20:02 · Jordi Visser
We're at the same price in oil right now that we were, I think, in March. So every day that passes into March, unless we get a spike higher in crude, if crude were to go down at any point, you're gonna have that flow through. The only reason I bring that up is this year has been about real rates going higher because inflation breakevens and swaps have... I mean, they're effectively at two and a half percent. We have ten year rates up close to five, which means there's 250 basis points of real ten year yields. That has been a major drag on crypto. It's been a major drag on gold. It's been a major drag on silver. It's been a major drag, I think, on the entire AI trade. And the irony is it gets back to Oracle because the amount of debt that these guys have needed competes with the treasury. So I'll finish this little monologue off with the quarterly refunding announcement. This is not getting a ton of press, and we'll find out about it on on November 4, so next week. There has been speculation by credible people, and Citibank also talked about this as well, that they could cancel supply. They've already done buybacks. That didn't work. If they cancel supply at the long end and move everything to the front end, it's not yield curve control, but it is certainly an admission that they don't want the long end to go higher. And regardless of whether it's because of affordability issues for housing, because you've seen thirty year mortgage rates go up a 100 basis points since March, or it's competing with AI, and we just saw Kevin Warsh talk about the fact that seems like the AI trade was moving spreads widen or we've seen spreads widen. So I think there may be this effort to really try to bring long term yields down and continue to do it. And if we were to see a reaction for a day, we're already below the 50 moving average for the first time in a while in ten year yields, that could be the catalyst right there, and you'd have all those events going on. So I'm getting more positive because I'm looking through this and thinking the holiday season's about to take over. I'm not worried about a bubble. So I'm believing that over the next six months, even if it's mud, you're getting good entry points right here.