The Pomp Podcast
00:10:10 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:10:10] S3: If the volatility on the downside related to a hack like this is so muted, are you worried about the upside volatility in a bull market being more muted as well?
00:10:21 · Jordi Visser
[00:10:21] S2: No. Because, again, my my primary thing from the bull side of this, nobody owns it. And I mean I can say this a million times over, but aside from, you know, the subscribers you have, some of the subscribers I have, institutional people and wealthy people are just not involved in the space. And again, I've talked about this that the only time that I think the true massive bull market occurs, number one, the technology happens and fundamentals start driving it. That's what will be next year's business. Tokenization just continues to move forward. You had a DTCC announcement this week. It... Tokenization is going to happen. That will lead to more fundamentals in the space. Second thing is what Stripe is seeing with the agent to commerce side is only gonna grow from here. It's not even a question. The question is how fast will it grow and when will we start seeing the numbers? And I've learned this with AI. Don't underestimate how fast this can happen if it's in a world where businesses can run it, and then competition just keeps coming from it because the deflationary pressures from these businesses that adopt it are going to be there. So I think on that front, this has been for me about innovation and technology and the combination of AI and fundamentals, and that's what I think the beginning stuff of crypto is. If we learned anything with AI over the last whatever years, you can't wait for the data to be good. We're kinda going through that with the AI trade. When the data really started being good, meaning when we started seeing the earnings, these names were already up 500%, thousand percent, and now they've gone sideways for a period of four months with all kinds of ups and downs. I think crypto is gonna go through the same thing. I will say one more thing on this for people as you go through it. We had a very large rally from 59,000 in Bitcoin up to around the, $87.88 area. I think going back and testing the two hundred day moving average, which is what we're gonna end up doing, I'm sure, and maybe even pierce below it a little bit.
00:12:13 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:12:13] S3: What is that? [00:12:13] S2: 73 to 74. Almost got there overnight. I don't think people should just sit there and think that, okay, everything is fine. We went through the hacking. We're gonna turn back up. This has been very correlated over the past month and a half to the AI trade. And whether people accept that or not, a chart of semiconductors now in Bitcoin has been one for one for the most part. The other point of this, which I brought up in a video this week, is a index of oil and tenure rates has also been correlated to it. So I think we've been going through, as I keep saying in my weekly weekend videos, there's been a horrible trading environment from anyone who's trying to sustain moves for longer than say a month and a half. You had to make your money in a very small window this year in the first half of the year, and then since then, it's been a lot of back and forth and just a lot of mud, and that's in all the major assets. I I think we're still in it until we get a catalyst. There may be a catalyst next week with quarterly refunding announcement, but other than that, I think we're just kind of grinding through.
00:13:16 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:13:16] S3: Today's episode is brought to you by FitNexa. Most of us, we spend all day in meetings, on calls, traveling. We got all kinds of things going on in our brain. And then we get in bed at the end of the day, and we just expect our brains to shut off and fall asleep immediately. But that's not how it works. And take someone like me. I live in New York City. There are things like trucks, sirens, and people yelling outside at two in the morning. And when I'm traveling, it could be a hotel room or a noisy street as well. That's why I wanna tell you about the FitNexa Somni Pods three. You take them and you put them right into your ear right before you go to sleep. They offer up to 42 decibels of total noise reduction, which is useful when I'm trying to sleep and the room around me will not cooperate. Instead of lying there, listening to every truck or every noise in the room, I can use them to reduce what's actually keeping me awake. But reducing the noise only helps if I can actually sleep in them. And I don't want to wear some bulky earbud that's pressing into my pillow or becoming the next thing that keeps me awake. SomniPods 3 are ultra thin, so I turn onto my side and I'm not figuring out how to deal with earbuds all night long. These come with a thirty night trial. So go over to fitnexa.com and use code POMP 10 to get $10 off your first order. That's fitnexa.com. Use code Pomp 10. Let's get to the mud in one second. But, one one other aspect that, I think is interesting. Four years ago, almost to the week, was the FTX collapse. 2022 was in November. There's midterms. There's a lot of similarities. That was the final puke down to, you know, $1,516,000 dollars. Mhmm. Marked the bottom of the bear market, and then we went up from there. It does feel like although most people think that we bottomed, and I probably think we did as well, it's kinda like, in a firefight. You know that the other guy's got x number of bullets. He's got 10 bullets. He shot eight of them. He had two left. Mhmm. The hack was number nine. He's still got one left, which is probably the midterms. And then once he fires that last bullet, you're kinda like, alright, man. You don't get anything left. I can come... You know, here we go. If that is true, then actually we are, I don't know, a week away from all of this noise, uncertainty, mud, etcetera, kinda just, okay.
00:15:30 · Anthony Pompliano
We've set in the foundation to leg up higher. Would you buy into that
00:15:33 · Jordi Visser
[00:15:33] S2: thesis, or are you still a little more cautious? I... I'm... So I had not, except for a small Micron purchase during July or August, whenever, but during the the situational awareness situation. In the last week, week and a half, I've made purchases in AI names three or four times, three or four days, only into panic, which again, luckily we keep getting them, but the reason is because a lot of things happen this week. Last week felt like panic to me on Thursday, which is why I I went in, but this week, first of all, Anthropic released their s one. It was definitely better than what people feared, and you could kind of read through it and get to more than a 100,000,000,000 if you want to in terms of AR, assuming you make the leap that based on what they put in there, they're gonna be telling you that the October numbers since Opus 5.5 went up. But regardless, that is out of the way. So people have been worried about what Anthropic would be. Now we have to get through the IPO, but again, that's coming soon. Oracle had an Investor Day. This might be the most important news point that no one seemed to mention or care about. If you ask me when the mud started, and again, for anyone who's trading, we've been in mud since September of last year, meaning every time you go up, you come back down, every time you go up, you go back down. It's been in a grinding bull market, but a very, very difficult painful one. You just look at the Nvidia chart. September of last year is when the capital raise effectively started. And the reason I say that is because Oracle made their highs on this massive day where they had massive RPOs, which is basically what the hyperscalers have as well. Meaning, we have these orders that we're gonna get in the future. The reason Oracle is so important and is not mentioned, is this week in their investor day, they laid out, hey, We're not gonna have to raise much money between now and 2030. Now that may not mean much to people, but Oracle's raised over $60,000,000,000 since that September last year. People have questioned them. Their debt was the first one to be an issue. Their CDS started widening out, and this is when the mud started. So for everyone who's trying to find, like, when is this gonna end?