The Pomp Podcast
00:37:07 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:37:07] S2: I... I'm not sure that, until the, until Muse is around for a long time, there's two issues with AI that I think are very different than, say, Google search. One is the trust factor. I finally got the chance to meet William Mougayar yesterday, and you know, his whole book is on this concept of trust as an asset. He wants to come see you again, hasn't seen you in a long [00:37:34] S3: He can come sit in that seat whenever he wants. [00:37:36] S2: Okay, you hear that, William? [00:37:39] S3: Believe this guy, Jordi, ask him to get live on the podcast.
00:37:43 · Jordi Visser
[00:37:43] S2: I'm I'm a live agent now. I'm a big fan of William, but I'm a big fan of his concept of this issue with trust, and I think obviously, people in crypto understand this part of trust. Now we have a hacking in Binance, so trust goes back down. But individuals don't trust AI either, and they're not gonna put their information in muse, especially when you have hacking. So hackings equal I don't wanna trust anything. Hackings are going up constantly. So I think that means adoption is gonna be very slow for individuals. I don't think they're ever gonna pay for it, ever. I think they're used to having free things, and I think you can use the best AI models. I mean, I know people now in my life that have used Grok Bot to do some things I told them they could do. I didn't know you could use Grok Bot without paying a lot of money for a month, because I already do. I don't keep up on what's free, like what becomes free, but the models keep getting better, and the free tier keeps getting better and better and better to where you can do all these things. Where it hurts is for younger people that are not embracing it, that are not using it, they are going to have trouble getting jobs. It's just There a there's no way that you can compete in today's workforce without being efficient, and if you think the company that's hiring you, like, great, I found a company that isn't using AI that isn't forcing me to, That company is not gonna be in business very long. Mhmm. And that process is gonna start. In fact, I'll go back to the triple c. Triple c. So companies that are junky, junk, junk, their cost of borrowing is now 16%. Now some of that is the rise in ten year rates, but a lot of that is the spread widening. 16%. That's how... If you're gonna borrow money at 16%, you need to see earnings growing at some fast pace to justify that. And I know one thing, that is a really hard bogey to beat when the S and P is only up 10% or 11% year to date. So I don't I don't know what people are doing.
00:39:40 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:39:40] S3: Alright. I joked in the beginning that your Halloween costume should be mister Eli Lilly himself. I don't think it's actually Eli Lilly, but all time highs, up 10% in two days. You sat in this seat couple months ago and said that one of your big bets for the AI trade was Eli Lilly. You've talked about TuneLab. You've talked about them acquiring a lot of different companies. You've talked about them building out their own GPU, you know, kinda cluster or data center, etcetera. How are you thinking about Eli Lilly today, and has anything changed in your thesis? Have you become more bullish? [00:40:16] S2: First of all, the numbers are staggering. I I challenge anyone to just go into an LLM and say, hey. Can you give me the earnings details from this quarter for Eli Lilly? I mean, you're talking about revenue growth. Revenue. So to give people an idea, like, good revenue... The S and P 500 right now revenue growth is about 12%, and that's probably where we're gonna finish, which is less than it was in q two. Eli Lilly's revenue growth year over year is 40%.
00:40:16 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:40:16] S2: First of all, the numbers are staggering. I I challenge anyone to just go into an LLM and say, hey. Can you give me the earnings details from this quarter for Eli Lilly? I mean, you're talking about revenue growth. Revenue. So to give people an idea, like, good revenue... The S and P 500 right now revenue growth is about 12%, and that's probably where we're gonna finish, which is less than it was in q two. Eli Lilly's revenue growth year over year is 40%. [00:40:45] S3: $2,024,400,000,000 dollars. Let me just read some of these. These are so crazy. So Eli Lilly reported revenue of $24,400,000,000, up 39%. The expectation was 22,600,000,000. So they outperformed expectations by $2,000,000,000 or almost 10%. Their volume grew 53%. Prices are down 15%. Gross margin was 83%. Non GAAP EPS was $7.48 against the $6.26. So they beat non GAAP EPS by over a dollar. Pretty incredible. And, Mounjaro brought in $10,000,000,000, which is up 65%, and Zepbound brought in $5,000,000,000, which is up 50%. And then they basically look at their 2026 revenue guidance rose. They think that it's gonna be 91 to $92,000,000,000, where previously they were reporting 85 to 87. So somewhere in the ballpark of 6 or $7,000,000,000 additional revenue guidance. And, about... Yeah. And so they're growing at, you know, $90,000,000,000 run rate. They're still growing revenue at 40% year over year. [00:41:50] S2: So let me give everyone, [00:41:53] S3: felt like a statistician there.
00:41:53 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:41:53] S3: felt like a statistician there. [00:41:55] S2: Yeah. And again, I've said that I believe in the next five years, they will become the biggest company. [00:42:00] S3: Oh, I know. Okay. I know you've said that. [00:42:02] S2: So right now, they're number nine. So everyone knows. Like, this is not, like, some outrageous thing, and they're catching up to number eight and number seven very quickly here. [00:42:12] S3: Maybe we need like a science fair board, and we just... Every week, we just move them up. Okay. Where's Eli? I... They could
00:42:17 · Jordi Visser
[00:42:17] S2: be ahead of Meta soon. I mean, there's... It's Tesla and Meta are staring in front of them, so they're a drug company. Here's the thing I want people to think about. So NVIDIA's stuck in mud. Their PE has collapsed. They announced 70% revenue growth. Their PE is down at 13, 12, who knows whether it's bullish on NVIDIA? No. No. And here's the reason why. There are two things about Eli Lilly comparing them to NVIDIA that are very different. Number one, the great thing about Eli Lilly in this world of AI infrastructure trades, they are making money on the health care problems in The United States where the spending is coming, is guaranteed every year. It is noncyclical. So they've historically... Because they didn't have... These growth numbers for a pharmaceutical company are insane. Now most of this is related to obesity, but the penetration that they've had... Remember, this has been an injectable. Now they're moving to an oral. They have about ten percent of people, from what I saw in the thing, diagnosed with obesity in The US. They've only penetrated ten percent at this point, which means they still have a lot of room, especially with pills. The prices are going down. Their volumes are going faster than their price decline. You love to see that. I think they've called that Jevons paradox. I don't really know. But as the price goes lower and more coverage happens, Globally, this is... That was just The US numbers. But globally, they are less than, I think, 3%. I think it's 2% of of the global. So they still have more money from that, and that's where most of their growth is coming from. But when you go through the other areas like dementia, oncology, immunology, they've got significant revenue growth there. And what people have to understand is it's one thing to be dealing with just obesity and diabetes. It's another thing to have this growth area that is also there from all of the drug discovery that they're spending time on. That stuff is gonna be down the road. I love having call options. If they come up with some cure on something, what happened to Moderna when they came through with something that's still up for debate? You get this massive rise because they start building in the numbers. So you have the noncyclicality, which means it's a diversification on the other things. I'm sitting here. I I say, okay. My biggest position is x...