The Pomp Podcast
00:34:57 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
Connect with their team, set up a time, bring your account if you'd like, then you can learn what automated trading can do for you. Archpublic.com. So in the private market, instinct went from, you know, where 500,000,000 to 2,000,000,000 to 10,000,000,000. Now it's rumored they're raising money at 30,000,000,000. Cognition and ramp are both 40 plus billion. Rumors coming may even be, you know, $6,070,000,000,000 incoming. When you see these valuations in the private market, I always go to... There's no way they're making enough money, like an Instinct, as maybe the example. Dude, they're not making money in the sense of, hey. It's worth 30,000,000,000, but the growth has to be off the charts. Mhmm. There was a interview that the Instinct founder did a couple weeks ago, Patrick Visser, talked about that he was growing 10% every day. Yeah. Right? And he's like, how do you buy compute? [00:35:44] S2: Yeah.
00:35:44 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:35:44] S2: Yeah. [00:35:44] S3: You know, if you buy... If you double your compute in a week, you're out. Right? That thing. Right? So when you when you think about the... These valuations, in a weird way, the public market valuations are actually incredibly rational compared to the private market valuations. Then you take a step back and you say to yourself, okay. I know all of the macro factors that play into this, oil, the interest rates, all this stuff that's happening. I go back to there are more people who spend money on sports gambling in America than spend money on AI right now. Mhmm. You talk about Bitcoin isn't that well adopted among wealthy people and institutions, etcetera. We are in an echo chamber of x of everyone's using AI. I see people creating cities for their Grok bots to run around and do all this, you know, cool stuff. Mhmm. I don't know, man. If you watch the local news, they're yelling about data centers, but they're not using this stuff. Mhmm. I heard last night, was at a dinner, and somebody said that that a young, person joined, their marketing department, and they were complaining that everyone was using AI. They felt like it was, you know, like like in school, they are being told, don't use this stuff. How do you square that with, like, if we're only one, 2% adopted, there's 98% of people left to go.
00:37:07 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:37:07] S2: I... I'm not sure that, until the, until Muse is around for a long time, there's two issues with AI that I think are very different than, say, Google search. One is the trust factor. I finally got the chance to meet William Mougayar yesterday, and you know, his whole book is on this concept of trust as an asset. He wants to come see you again, hasn't seen you in a long [00:37:34] S3: He can come sit in that seat whenever he wants. [00:37:36] S2: Okay, you hear that, William? [00:37:39] S3: Believe this guy, Jordi, ask him to get live on the podcast.
00:37:43 · Jordi Visser
[00:37:43] S2: I'm I'm a live agent now. I'm a big fan of William, but I'm a big fan of his concept of this issue with trust, and I think obviously, people in crypto understand this part of trust. Now we have a hacking in Binance, so trust goes back down. But individuals don't trust AI either, and they're not gonna put their information in muse, especially when you have hacking. So hackings equal I don't wanna trust anything. Hackings are going up constantly. So I think that means adoption is gonna be very slow for individuals. I don't think they're ever gonna pay for it, ever. I think they're used to having free things, and I think you can use the best AI models. I mean, I know people now in my life that have used Grok Bot to do some things I told them they could do. I didn't know you could use Grok Bot without paying a lot of money for a month, because I already do. I don't keep up on what's free, like what becomes free, but the models keep getting better, and the free tier keeps getting better and better and better to where you can do all these things. Where it hurts is for younger people that are not embracing it, that are not using it, they are going to have trouble getting jobs. It's just There a there's no way that you can compete in today's workforce without being efficient, and if you think the company that's hiring you, like, great, I found a company that isn't using AI that isn't forcing me to, That company is not gonna be in business very long. Mhmm. And that process is gonna start. In fact, I'll go back to the triple c. Triple c. So companies that are junky, junk, junk, their cost of borrowing is now 16%. Now some of that is the rise in ten year rates, but a lot of that is the spread widening. 16%. That's how... If you're gonna borrow money at 16%, you need to see earnings growing at some fast pace to justify that. And I know one thing, that is a really hard bogey to beat when the S and P is only up 10% or 11% year to date. So I don't I don't know what people are doing.
00:39:40 · Anthony Pompliano, Jordi Visser
[00:39:40] S3: Alright. I joked in the beginning that your Halloween costume should be mister Eli Lilly himself. I don't think it's actually Eli Lilly, but all time highs, up 10% in two days. You sat in this seat couple months ago and said that one of your big bets for the AI trade was Eli Lilly. You've talked about TuneLab. You've talked about them acquiring a lot of different companies. You've talked about them building out their own GPU, you know, kinda cluster or data center, etcetera. How are you thinking about Eli Lilly today, and has anything changed in your thesis? Have you become more bullish? [00:40:16] S2: First of all, the numbers are staggering. I I challenge anyone to just go into an LLM and say, hey. Can you give me the earnings details from this quarter for Eli Lilly? I mean, you're talking about revenue growth. Revenue. So to give people an idea, like, good revenue... The S and P 500 right now revenue growth is about 12%, and that's probably where we're gonna finish, which is less than it was in q two. Eli Lilly's revenue growth year over year is 40%.
00:40:16 · Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano
[00:40:16] S2: First of all, the numbers are staggering. I I challenge anyone to just go into an LLM and say, hey. Can you give me the earnings details from this quarter for Eli Lilly? I mean, you're talking about revenue growth. Revenue. So to give people an idea, like, good revenue... The S and P 500 right now revenue growth is about 12%, and that's probably where we're gonna finish, which is less than it was in q two. Eli Lilly's revenue growth year over year is 40%. [00:40:45] S3: $2,024,400,000,000 dollars. Let me just read some of these. These are so crazy. So Eli Lilly reported revenue of $24,400,000,000, up 39%. The expectation was 22,600,000,000. So they outperformed expectations by $2,000,000,000 or almost 10%. Their volume grew 53%. Prices are down 15%. Gross margin was 83%. Non GAAP EPS was $7.48 against the $6.26. So they beat non GAAP EPS by over a dollar. Pretty incredible. And, Mounjaro brought in $10,000,000,000, which is up 65%, and Zepbound brought in $5,000,000,000, which is up 50%. And then they basically look at their 2026 revenue guidance rose. They think that it's gonna be 91 to $92,000,000,000, where previously they were reporting 85 to 87. So somewhere in the ballpark of 6 or $7,000,000,000 additional revenue guidance. And, about... Yeah. And so they're growing at, you know, $90,000,000,000 run rate. They're still growing revenue at 40% year over year. [00:41:50] S2: So let me give everyone, [00:41:53] S3: felt like a statistician there.