00:08:09 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:08:09] S1: I don't know that they're gonna be jumping back in. Yeah. [00:08:12] S0: Yeah. I know some people who sold all way back in 2021, they're feeling like they called this way early. McDonald's is up 20% in the past month. [00:08:21] S1: Oh, yeah. Good Alexander. Quality. Says pricing surge of applicants. Pricing in the surge of applicants. Yeah. [00:08:29] S0: Yeah. Cost of labor going down as everyone stops trading stocks. Hits the hits the the fryer. [00:08:36] S1: Vlad Vlad's saying over at Robinhood saying, the trenches are calling and I must go. [00:08:42] S0: What's the... Where do you go? Aren't you already in your office? Aren't you in the trenches every day? [00:08:47] S1: We created the the trenches or the trench. How's Robinhood doing? Down 1111% today. Very. Makes sense. Yeah. But but yeah. Funny funny post.
00:09:00 · John Coogan
[00:09:00] S0: Yeah. Oh well. We'll we'll see. The market will have whatever it has. You know, everything can shift depending on the next, like, earning cycle, leak cycle on progress on all sorts of technology. But it does seem like the the the the the the... One of the commentaries that's starting to take hold is like, the hyperscalers are holding up pretty well even though the Nasdaq's down 5%. Most of the big bag seven are down like 2%. And the thesis is like, well, they have the data centers already built and they don't necessarily need it. As you get Hermits Potentially be... So a lot more value. Yeah. And they can sell into the spot spot price. And then also, the the hyperscalers have a lot of powered shells or at least they have a lot of data centers that might be running older chips, but they can re rack, reconfigure them potentially. And so it it... It'll still be slower than some of the Neoclouds, but we'll we'll see. I'm still optimistic that we'll hear announcements from Neoclouds in the next few weeks about where they are going, where they want to go, and what the new trade is. Because a lot of these, a lot of these construction projects, if there's an incentive for the local community, if it's using clean power, if it's quiet, if it's beautiful, if it's in a remote location, there's a lot of people that can actually get behind it. But it's clear that, the broadly... The the electorate in a lot of states are saying, okay. We don't like the current deal. We don't like the the the structure of the trade, for a variety of reasons. Some of them completely legitimate, some of them Yeah. Sort of misinformed by, you know, misunderstandings of the of the impact. Yeah. Be interesting. What is Joe Weisenthal saying here? Let's dig into this. But first, I'll tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. So is there something going on beyond coding? Intuitively, maybe personal assistant bots, but as Elon said, the Grok bot hadn't... Hasn't had good economics. A lot of those are like, if you wait, the economics will get there. Better. But it's super competitive and you're... And and there's so many other things that at least SpaceX can do with their compute.
00:11:12 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
They can send it over to, Google, Anthropic, all the other buyers. So as the conversations went on, I gradually began to understand where the pessimism was coming from. In the end, they were all asking the same question. So what comes after AI coding? What will be the next engine of ARR for Anthropic and OpenAI? Several candidates came up, AI for us, for science, AI chip design, and so on, but none of them clearly convinced investors. I couldn't offer a clear answer either. Sure. There are rumors that Anthropic has made major breakthrough in both AI for science and AI chip design, but what we actually want to know is when any of that turns into money. You know, some of these initiatives, if they're if they're Yeah. [00:11:54] S1: I think the main the main thing is, like, what what Joe's referencing is, you know, I was talking about, like, we need a step up in capability in a meaningful way because there are there are a bunch of businesses in the world Yeah. Small and large, where they want to be using more AI Mhmm. But they can't really find a way to spend more than a couple $100 a month [00:12:15] S0: Yeah. [00:12:15] S1: Per person Yeah. Let's say. And so AI spend is still tiny relative to the other costs in the business. Yeah. And so they're they're sitting there saying, I'm willing to spend a lot more. [00:12:25] S0: Yeah. [00:12:25] S1: I just can't find a way yet to apply it Totally. Outside of coding and a couple of these other domains.
00:12:25 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:12:25] S1: I just can't find a way yet to apply it Totally. Outside of coding and a couple of these other domains. [00:12:31] S0: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if you just add up the revenues from all the harness companies, I don't wanna necessarily call them wrapper companies, but like the companies that are in AI enablement, AI diffusion, AI for law, AI for finance, these types of companies. You add up all of that, even if the labs were able to just immediately get that revenue, doesn't move the needle that much. And so Well next... Yeah. [00:12:56] S1: They are getting a lot of the revenue. [00:12:57] S0: Oh, yeah. Already they're getting a ton of revenue. But, what what what I'm saying is like like, an engineer can easily justify, a $100,000 token budget a year if they're making $203,104 $100,000 in their comp package. Jensen's floated like a one to one ratio, and that doesn't seem that crazy for certain roles. Much harder to justify You're a lawyer. Right now. [00:13:20] S1: I think you floated more
00:13:20 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:13:20] S1: I think you floated more [00:13:21] S0: aggressive. Yeah. But, it's it's that, right now, everyone who has a marketer on their team, everyone who has a a... In in house counsel, everyone who has a CFO, they would all love to be able to go to them and say, yeah. Your budget for AI is a $100,000 a year. Go spend it, and let's make sure the ROI is there. But we're generally confident the AI... That the ROI is there. Right now, people are like, you can have $200 a month. You can have maybe $2,000 a month, but you're not getting $20 a month yet. And so that's like the the original, like, white collar work pitch that then has kind of melted away because of the job displacement discussion. So now we're into AI for science and AI for chip design. But a lot of those times, even if you have a breakthrough, like, there's just going to be... In terms of adoption and actual monetization of a new drug, there are just gonna be people who say, I want a phase three trial, and I want, you know, humans to have tried this drug for nine months straight. I want... You you can use AI to design it. You can use AI to do all the different testing, and and and and you can, work for... On AI for the manufacturing. But at the at the at the end of the day, I wanna see that there's an evidence that a human took this pill and survived a year later. And that's what a lot of the FDA trials do. And so that's a little bit slow even if the balance sheet is there from the big, biotech companies.
00:14:48 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:14:48] S1: Also, yeah, on the on the AI for science side and r and d Yeah. I just think, like, generating a bunch of... You know, we talked about this with Dylan and the semi analysis team. Yeah. Like, there's the there's, like, the the idea generation Mhmm. Part Mhmm. Which, like, already there's a lot of ideas. And then there's the actual, like, r and d process Sure. To figure out if something is like viable. Yeah. You're gonna use... The the second part takes a lot of time. My my concern with like how that revenue will ramp over time is that like you just can't... Even with AI, you're not gonna pick, I think at this point, anything where it still has to tie into the real world [00:15:31] S0: Yeah. [00:15:31] S1: Right through like, you know, human trials, things You're like not gonna like pick [00:15:38] S0: physically You're not gonna say into silicon into a fab. It is You're not gonna It's like high definition slide a thousand. [00:15:44] S1: You can run 5,000 simulations [00:15:46] S0: Yeah. [00:15:46] S1: In software, but then once it's in the real world and and Yeah. You're just not...