00:19:03 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:19:03] S1: At least I wanna make some money on it. [00:19:05] S0: Totally. And the last round was $9.60, something like that. $960,000,000,000, like just a hair shy of a trillion. Yeah. So even if even if they go out at 1.2, it's still an up round for all the investors there. Everyone's happy. Like, it's... They haven't done around since. I don't know. In granny equity. So it feels like they do have a cushion of of safety there where, like, okay. They they mentally jumped from $960,000,000,000, basically 1,000,000,000,000, to basically 2,000,000,000,000. Everyone was like, it's gonna be 2,000,000,000,000 at at IPO. It's be 2,000,000,000,000. 50% haircut, they're still in the green, so not too bad. But, you know, I think Cramer does understand what's going on in the market, like what people will be worried about, how much, how much excitement there will be. [00:19:44] S1: Yeah. The question is... I don't know the answer to this. Yeah. Is can you go out when all of the companies in your supply chain are nuking? Yeah. Like, or does it make sense to, you know, wait until things stabilize a little bit more? I I genuinely don't know the answer. That's great. I still think, you know, Anthropic's been going, and their bankers have been going out to like individual investors and Yeah. Yeah. All these allocations. Yeah. And I can still imagine a lot of people saying like, I believe in this company long term. [00:20:14] S0: Yeah.
00:20:14 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:20:14] S0: Yeah. [00:20:14] S1: I don't really care about the short term. This is like a buying opportunity, especially if it comes in. Because at at at the lower end of the range Yeah. I think there's like... I still think there's tremendous amount of upside. [00:20:27] S0: Yeah. I'm trying to remember, how much did SpaceX raise in the IPO? Was it like 60 or 80,000,000,000? And I feel like Anthropic had floated, like, maybe 200,000,000,000, over 100,000,000,000, some sort of really big number. So even just scaling back the floats, scaling back the the amount raised, obviously scaling back the valuations as well. There's a number of levers that they could pull, but it is not what you wanna see if you're trying to get out or you need to get out. But Yeah. We'll we'll see how they play it. I mean, the the prediction markets... I was looking at the prediction markets on, like, the the IPO. Not that... I I don't know how prediction markets have held up on on the non election, non sports stuff. I was looking at Yeah. Because, like, hopefully, the people that are underwriting your IPO, like More trading. [00:21:15] S1: That that they call me [00:21:16] S0: because then it's more accurate. [00:21:18] S1: Right? No. I was gonna say the opposite. [00:21:21] S0: Stay out of it. Stay out of it. Yes. Don't. But but but I would imagine that someone who is not an insider but has a deep understanding of the market. Like, if you if you aren't on the Anthropic IPO, maybe you're a retired investment banker, but you've taken tech companies public. Like, you were
00:21:21 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:21:21] S0: Stay out of it. Stay out of it. Yes. Don't. But but but I would imagine that someone who is not an insider but has a deep understanding of the market. Like, if you if you aren't on the Anthropic IPO, maybe you're a retired investment banker, but you've taken tech companies public. Like, you were [00:21:37] S1: at Morgan Stanley during 2000 So on November 3 Yeah. At 6PM Mhmm. The market was saying 88% chance of an IPO Mhmm. Before December 1. Mhmm. And now Is [00:21:51] S0: it 60 something? 61. 61. Wow. Down That's a lot. [00:21:56] S1: Yeah. Over 20%. [00:21:58] S0: So that could just be, like, vibes based, you know, people trading the market, but it also could be, you know, a retired hedge fund guy or a retired investment banker who really understands the likelihood, how the likelihood changes as a function of the overall market. And and they could be talking to public markets investors who are giving them insight in in in information Yeah. But are able to educate them about liquidity, generally. [00:22:25] S1: Yeah. The interesting thing is there's a world where some institutions, like more institutional investors, larger investors [00:22:33] S0: Mhmm.
00:22:33 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:22:33] S0: Mhmm. [00:22:34] S1: Get a bit more skittish because they're looking at their book and seeing, you know, massive losses Yeah. Or at least paper losses, and retail got... Being able to get a lot more exposure. I think, like, for better or worse, retail is gonna be able to invest, like, more in this IPO than in than in many of the of of the of the IPOs in the last, you know, year or so, just because it seems like if the price is right, there's unlimited demand Yeah. For capital. [00:23:05] S0: It's interesting. Like, the all out blitz on marketing from OpenAI and Anthropic across social media and influencers and whatnot, like, awareness is way higher than with a Neocloud or a SaaS company. There's a lot of people that hate it. I don't know if they're retail investors. But there's certainly more awareness, but you don't have the cult of Elon with either Sam or Dario, to be true. Yeah. Right? You have people that are maybe intimidated or maybe, like, cautiously optimistic, but you don't have people that are like, ride or die. Like, we're going to Mars. I got the Yeah. I got the the Cybertruck. [00:23:41] S1: Well, you get that because you had a bunch of people invest in Tesla at what, sub $10,000,000,000 market cap.
00:23:47 · John Coogan
[00:23:47] S0: Totally. They've made they've made money with him before. Yeah. Yeah. One last thing from Jim Cramer. He says, data center locations. He says, these are what I'm concerned about. He's looking at IREN. They have three in Texas. CoreWeave has four in Texas, one in Ohio. They do have, plenty of others. Some in Sweden, some in Canada, some in India. Nebius, does... Has lower Texas exposure. And so, people are worried about what will happen to these if they're still building capacity, still getting approvals. I'm sure all the analysts are really digging into the exact sites, where they are, how many permits. Will they be subject to a pause? Will they be subject to, a renegotiation there? It does feel like there's there's already been... I saw some messaging from OpenAI around, like, power protection program v two, how you actually interact and make sure that power... Electricity rates don't go up, like, concretizing the the water usage more. And so all of this will just be more and more. But there are there are plenty of examples of, like, the data centers, like, going well. There's an interesting debate between Chris Mims and, over at the Wall Street Journal and Mike Isaac over at the Atlantic around the, around the difference... The different takeaways. Before we get into this, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. So let me see if I can actually find it because my guys have said, like, okay. Based on everything that's happening, it looks like the only the only takeaway is peep... Like, tech people will take away that it's just a messaging problem. And it says voters are very pessimistic on AI. The majority of voters say AI will do more to hurt society. Only a quarter will say it will help. And some of these some of these polls are like, they they they niche them down. So they first ask you, like, are you voting based on AI? And, like, 10 people say, like, yeah. That's my issue. Where a lot of people say, like, gas prices or, like, geopolitical conflict. Right? But then within those, they say, okay. Are you voting on AI? Then do... Are you optimistic, pessimistic, etcetera?
00:25:55 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
My guys, like, rat king says, my guess is the primary thing the tech industry will take away from this data is that it's a messaging problem because what else can we do when the majority of voters say what you are building is bad for society? Genuine philosophical question. I think the answer is a lot of what, Chris Mims was saying, which is, he say... He actually posted this a long time ago, so he resurfaced it. He said, practically no one read this when I published it a couple months ago, but I'm going to immodestly propose that everyone who wants to build a data center or whose livelihoods depend on them getting built should read it now. Big tech can build data centers people won't hate. We've been through some [00:26:37] S1: of these, you know, sound and water and power. My point was like, make it make it have a concrete positive impact on the local Yeah. Lives of the people in the local community. Yeah. Even if it comes down to like, we're gonna pay you [00:26:50] S0: Yeah. [00:26:51] S1: You know, $500 a month. [00:26:52] S0: Yeah. I mean, the AWS playbook is right there for the taking. Like, people in Virginia, very happy, very wealthy. It's done very well. But in the sprint, everyone was like, we gotta throw out that playbook. You Because even remember like Meta was building data centers in tents. Like, and and instead of instead of traditional buildings. And like, I don't know if that actually has an effect on how much water you're using or how much power you're using. Of course, Natural building gas. [00:27:18] S1: Scraps in a cave. [00:27:19] S0: Scraps in a cave