00:17:20 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:17:20] S0: We might count 5%. [00:17:21] S1: We still got this. We grabbed this on the way out. [00:17:24] S0: Yeah. That was the last thing. So to me, Warren's macro regime twist... Shifting toward late cycle stagflation tilt. So, lots of lots of rough stuff on the timeline. Steven Balaban's extremely bullish on Neocloud. If there's pushback on data centers in some districts, that will artificially suppress supply of the exact product that, Lambda sells compute. The demand for compute will continue to grow exponentially. There's never been a better time to be a cloud at Citrix. Right? And the replies, how much active data center power capacity do you have? Asking questions. Yeah. It's sort it's sort of his Christmas. Speaking of Christmas, how many days till Christmas? [00:18:02] S1: Pull it up.
00:18:02 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:18:02] S1: Pull it up. [00:18:03] S0: I think we have just forty nine days until Christmas, and the Nasdaq is down over 4.9%. No. We have a better we have a better fun fact. Forty nine days till Christmas, the Porsche nine two eight was debuted in Geneva in 1977. That's forty nine days ago. So Oh. Good good tidbit. Good historical tidbit. We had some options for which way we were gonna go. Was it gonna be an age? We went with the with the Porsche. I didn't even need to hear the other options. I I called it immediately. So IPO window. It's impossible, but it's necessary. This has gotta get out. Jim Cramer says, think that Anthropic is gonna have to take a discount to get it done. They have been the principal progenitor of fear, which is what the American people feel. That's not that big of a deal. Like, it's a well capitalized business. [00:18:52] S1: Also, fear can be a driver to invest. [00:18:58] S0: Yeah. Yeah. That's true. And I mean, they had... I'm scared of this thing, but Yeah. [00:19:03] S1: At least I wanna make some money on it.
00:19:03 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:19:03] S1: At least I wanna make some money on it. [00:19:05] S0: Totally. And the last round was $9.60, something like that. $960,000,000,000, like just a hair shy of a trillion. Yeah. So even if even if they go out at 1.2, it's still an up round for all the investors there. Everyone's happy. Like, it's... They haven't done around since. I don't know. In granny equity. So it feels like they do have a cushion of of safety there where, like, okay. They they mentally jumped from $960,000,000,000, basically 1,000,000,000,000, to basically 2,000,000,000,000. Everyone was like, it's gonna be 2,000,000,000,000 at at IPO. It's be 2,000,000,000,000. 50% haircut, they're still in the green, so not too bad. But, you know, I think Cramer does understand what's going on in the market, like what people will be worried about, how much, how much excitement there will be. [00:19:44] S1: Yeah. The question is... I don't know the answer to this. Yeah. Is can you go out when all of the companies in your supply chain are nuking? Yeah. Like, or does it make sense to, you know, wait until things stabilize a little bit more? I I genuinely don't know the answer. That's great. I still think, you know, Anthropic's been going, and their bankers have been going out to like individual investors and Yeah. Yeah. All these allocations. Yeah. And I can still imagine a lot of people saying like, I believe in this company long term. [00:20:14] S0: Yeah.
00:20:14 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:20:14] S0: Yeah. [00:20:14] S1: I don't really care about the short term. This is like a buying opportunity, especially if it comes in. Because at at at the lower end of the range Yeah. I think there's like... I still think there's tremendous amount of upside. [00:20:27] S0: Yeah. I'm trying to remember, how much did SpaceX raise in the IPO? Was it like 60 or 80,000,000,000? And I feel like Anthropic had floated, like, maybe 200,000,000,000, over 100,000,000,000, some sort of really big number. So even just scaling back the floats, scaling back the the amount raised, obviously scaling back the valuations as well. There's a number of levers that they could pull, but it is not what you wanna see if you're trying to get out or you need to get out. But Yeah. We'll we'll see how they play it. I mean, the the prediction markets... I was looking at the prediction markets on, like, the the IPO. Not that... I I don't know how prediction markets have held up on on the non election, non sports stuff. I was looking at Yeah. Because, like, hopefully, the people that are underwriting your IPO, like More trading. [00:21:15] S1: That that they call me [00:21:16] S0: because then it's more accurate. [00:21:18] S1: Right? No. I was gonna say the opposite. [00:21:21] S0: Stay out of it. Stay out of it. Yes. Don't. But but but I would imagine that someone who is not an insider but has a deep understanding of the market. Like, if you if you aren't on the Anthropic IPO, maybe you're a retired investment banker, but you've taken tech companies public. Like, you were
00:21:21 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:21:21] S0: Stay out of it. Stay out of it. Yes. Don't. But but but I would imagine that someone who is not an insider but has a deep understanding of the market. Like, if you if you aren't on the Anthropic IPO, maybe you're a retired investment banker, but you've taken tech companies public. Like, you were [00:21:37] S1: at Morgan Stanley during 2000 So on November 3 Yeah. At 6PM Mhmm. The market was saying 88% chance of an IPO Mhmm. Before December 1. Mhmm. And now Is [00:21:51] S0: it 60 something? 61. 61. Wow. Down That's a lot. [00:21:56] S1: Yeah. Over 20%. [00:21:58] S0: So that could just be, like, vibes based, you know, people trading the market, but it also could be, you know, a retired hedge fund guy or a retired investment banker who really understands the likelihood, how the likelihood changes as a function of the overall market. And and they could be talking to public markets investors who are giving them insight in in in information Yeah. But are able to educate them about liquidity, generally. [00:22:25] S1: Yeah. The interesting thing is there's a world where some institutions, like more institutional investors, larger investors [00:22:33] S0: Mhmm.
00:22:33 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:22:33] S0: Mhmm. [00:22:34] S1: Get a bit more skittish because they're looking at their book and seeing, you know, massive losses Yeah. Or at least paper losses, and retail got... Being able to get a lot more exposure. I think, like, for better or worse, retail is gonna be able to invest, like, more in this IPO than in than in many of the of of the of the IPOs in the last, you know, year or so, just because it seems like if the price is right, there's unlimited demand Yeah. For capital. [00:23:05] S0: It's interesting. Like, the all out blitz on marketing from OpenAI and Anthropic across social media and influencers and whatnot, like, awareness is way higher than with a Neocloud or a SaaS company. There's a lot of people that hate it. I don't know if they're retail investors. But there's certainly more awareness, but you don't have the cult of Elon with either Sam or Dario, to be true. Yeah. Right? You have people that are maybe intimidated or maybe, like, cautiously optimistic, but you don't have people that are like, ride or die. Like, we're going to Mars. I got the Yeah. I got the the Cybertruck. [00:23:41] S1: Well, you get that because you had a bunch of people invest in Tesla at what, sub $10,000,000,000 market cap.