00:14:48 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:14:48] S1: Also, yeah, on the on the AI for science side and r and d Yeah. I just think, like, generating a bunch of... You know, we talked about this with Dylan and the semi analysis team. Yeah. Like, there's the there's, like, the the idea generation Mhmm. Part Mhmm. Which, like, already there's a lot of ideas. And then there's the actual, like, r and d process Sure. To figure out if something is like viable. Yeah. You're gonna use... The the second part takes a lot of time. My my concern with like how that revenue will ramp over time is that like you just can't... Even with AI, you're not gonna pick, I think at this point, anything where it still has to tie into the real world [00:15:31] S0: Yeah. [00:15:31] S1: Right through like, you know, human trials, things You're like not gonna like pick [00:15:38] S0: physically You're not gonna say into silicon into a fab. It is You're not gonna It's like high definition slide a thousand. [00:15:44] S1: You can run 5,000 simulations [00:15:46] S0: Yeah. [00:15:46] S1: In software, but then once it's in the real world and and Yeah. You're just not...
00:15:51 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:15:51] S0: And we've seen this with both the model progress on anything that can't be... Can't... The RL can't happen in a millisecond on a server. It it... If it has anything in the external world, that's a huge that's a huge drag on the speed with which it can diffuse. Yeah. But but we'll we'll we'll we'll see. I mean, at the same time, like, the market is good at pricing breakthroughs. Like, the GLP ones drove a trillion dollars of market cap. Yeah. Way before they were even in the hands of people. Like, they were, like, very limited rollouts to people for... Through doctors. It was pre diffusion effectively, and and the market was able to capitalize that early because it was expected and understood. And so, you could see at least some of the financing be underwritten by breakthroughs in AI for science or chip design or any other harder field that takes more time. You can actually match the capital to that. So, there's still lots of optimism there. Let me tell you about console. We still got our console stickers on here. Console builds AI agents that automate 70 of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. So to summarize the Citrini article, Citrini overhauls thematic model book calls peak in AI infrastructure CapEx. Citrini says AI infrastructure asymmetric risk has shifted to downside. Citrini expects higher costs for US data centers after democratic nature. So I think that we brought the the... Hey. We didn't have to sell the soundboard. Okay? [00:17:19] S1: Yeah. [00:17:20] S0: We might count 5%.
00:17:20 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:17:20] S0: We might count 5%. [00:17:21] S1: We still got this. We grabbed this on the way out. [00:17:24] S0: Yeah. That was the last thing. So to me, Warren's macro regime twist... Shifting toward late cycle stagflation tilt. So, lots of lots of rough stuff on the timeline. Steven Balaban's extremely bullish on Neocloud. If there's pushback on data centers in some districts, that will artificially suppress supply of the exact product that, Lambda sells compute. The demand for compute will continue to grow exponentially. There's never been a better time to be a cloud at Citrix. Right? And the replies, how much active data center power capacity do you have? Asking questions. Yeah. It's sort it's sort of his Christmas. Speaking of Christmas, how many days till Christmas? [00:18:02] S1: Pull it up.
00:18:02 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:18:02] S1: Pull it up. [00:18:03] S0: I think we have just forty nine days until Christmas, and the Nasdaq is down over 4.9%. No. We have a better we have a better fun fact. Forty nine days till Christmas, the Porsche nine two eight was debuted in Geneva in 1977. That's forty nine days ago. So Oh. Good good tidbit. Good historical tidbit. We had some options for which way we were gonna go. Was it gonna be an age? We went with the with the Porsche. I didn't even need to hear the other options. I I called it immediately. So IPO window. It's impossible, but it's necessary. This has gotta get out. Jim Cramer says, think that Anthropic is gonna have to take a discount to get it done. They have been the principal progenitor of fear, which is what the American people feel. That's not that big of a deal. Like, it's a well capitalized business. [00:18:52] S1: Also, fear can be a driver to invest. [00:18:58] S0: Yeah. Yeah. That's true. And I mean, they had... I'm scared of this thing, but Yeah. [00:19:03] S1: At least I wanna make some money on it.
00:19:03 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:19:03] S1: At least I wanna make some money on it. [00:19:05] S0: Totally. And the last round was $9.60, something like that. $960,000,000,000, like just a hair shy of a trillion. Yeah. So even if even if they go out at 1.2, it's still an up round for all the investors there. Everyone's happy. Like, it's... They haven't done around since. I don't know. In granny equity. So it feels like they do have a cushion of of safety there where, like, okay. They they mentally jumped from $960,000,000,000, basically 1,000,000,000,000, to basically 2,000,000,000,000. Everyone was like, it's gonna be 2,000,000,000,000 at at IPO. It's be 2,000,000,000,000. 50% haircut, they're still in the green, so not too bad. But, you know, I think Cramer does understand what's going on in the market, like what people will be worried about, how much, how much excitement there will be. [00:19:44] S1: Yeah. The question is... I don't know the answer to this. Yeah. Is can you go out when all of the companies in your supply chain are nuking? Yeah. Like, or does it make sense to, you know, wait until things stabilize a little bit more? I I genuinely don't know the answer. That's great. I still think, you know, Anthropic's been going, and their bankers have been going out to like individual investors and Yeah. Yeah. All these allocations. Yeah. And I can still imagine a lot of people saying like, I believe in this company long term. [00:20:14] S0: Yeah.
00:20:14 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:20:14] S0: Yeah. [00:20:14] S1: I don't really care about the short term. This is like a buying opportunity, especially if it comes in. Because at at at the lower end of the range Yeah. I think there's like... I still think there's tremendous amount of upside. [00:20:27] S0: Yeah. I'm trying to remember, how much did SpaceX raise in the IPO? Was it like 60 or 80,000,000,000? And I feel like Anthropic had floated, like, maybe 200,000,000,000, over 100,000,000,000, some sort of really big number. So even just scaling back the floats, scaling back the the amount raised, obviously scaling back the valuations as well. There's a number of levers that they could pull, but it is not what you wanna see if you're trying to get out or you need to get out. But Yeah. We'll we'll see how they play it. I mean, the the prediction markets... I was looking at the prediction markets on, like, the the IPO. Not that... I I don't know how prediction markets have held up on on the non election, non sports stuff. I was looking at Yeah. Because, like, hopefully, the people that are underwriting your IPO, like More trading. [00:21:15] S1: That that they call me [00:21:16] S0: because then it's more accurate. [00:21:18] S1: Right? No. I was gonna say the opposite. [00:21:21] S0: Stay out of it. Stay out of it. Yes. Don't. But but but I would imagine that someone who is not an insider but has a deep understanding of the market. Like, if you if you aren't on the Anthropic IPO, maybe you're a retired investment banker, but you've taken tech companies public. Like, you were